Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction and Picks - December 9, 2025
National League Hockey action on Tuesday evening, and we have a Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction ready to roll for you. Tampa Bay enters this game off a 2-0 road loss to Toronto to move to 16-13 on the year. The Canadiens are off a 4-3 home loss to the Blues and they are now 15-13 on the year. Montreal won two of the three meetings a year ago. Read on to see our Lightning vs Canadiens prediction.
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Bolts Are Struggling On Offense
Tampa Bay’s most recent game was a 2–0 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs last night, where Dennis Hildeby (Toronto) stopped all 29 shots for his first career NHL shutout. The Lightning managed 29 shots, but were still were blanked for the second straight outing, following a 2–0 defeat to the Islanders two nights earlier. It marked their fourth consecutive loss after a seven‑game winning streak, and the frustration was evident as Jon Cooper’s group failed to generate sustained pressure despite the return of Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov.
Offensively, Tampa Bay has hit a wall. Over this four‑game losing streak, they’ve scored only four total goals, a stark contrast to their season average of 3.0 goals per game (14th). Their shot production sits at 27.4 per game, middle of the pack, but the power play has been ineffective at 15.7% (25th). Faceoffs remain a glaring weakness (46.0%, last in the NHL), often leaving them chasing possession. Kucherov leads the team with 34 points, but the lack of secondary scoring has been exposed during this slump.
Defensively, Tampa Bay has still been strong, allowing just 2.6 goals per game (5th) with an elite 87.0% penalty kill (2nd). Jonas Johansson has filled in for the injured Andrei Vasilevskiy, but the team’s inability to score has wasted solid goaltending efforts. The Lightning rank near the top in discipline with 344 penalty minutes (2nd most), which puts pressure on their PK but hasn’t sunk them. Against Montreal, the challenge will be rediscovering offensive rhythm while leaning on their defensive backbone to keep the game close.
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Habs Fall Short Against the Blues
Montreal’s most recent game was a 4–3 home loss to the St. Louis Blues on December 8, where Brayden Schenn scored twice and Dylan Holloway added a goal and two assists for the Blues. The Canadiens got goals from Lane Hutson, Cole Caufield, and Noah Dobson, but couldn’t complete the comeback despite outshooting St. Louis 26–18. It snapped their two‑game win streak and highlighted the inconsistency that has defined their season.
Offensively, Montreal has been more reliable than Tampa Bay, averaging 3.2 goals per game (7th) despite ranking near the bottom in shots (25.3 per game, 29th). Their power play has been a major weapon at 26.3% (4th), with Nick Suzuki and Caufield driving production. Suzuki leads the team with 32 points, while Caufield has 16 goals, including one in the loss to St. Louis. Faceoffs have been steady at 50.1%, giving them a slight edge in puck possession.
Defensively, Montreal struggles, allowing 3.4 goals per game (28th) and ranking 25th in penalty kill at 78.2%. Jakub Dobes has carried the load in net, but his save percentage sits below .890, and the team has been prone to lapses in coverage. Discipline has been an issue too, with 276 penalty minutes (13th), often leaving their PK exposed. Against Tampa Bay, Montreal’s offensive depth and power play could tilt the matchup, but their defensive vulnerabilities mean they’ll need to outscore problems rather than shut them down.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Pick
Lightning vs Canadiens Moneyline Pick
- Tampa Bay +105 (4 Units)
Tampa Bay may be riding a four‑game losing streak, but this matchup against Montreal sets up as a chance to snap it. Their most recent outing was a 2–0 loss to Toronto on December 8, where Dennis Hildeby stopped all 29 shots for his first NHL shutout. Despite the defeat, the Lightning still showed flashes of their defensive strength, holding the Maple Leafs to just 22 shots. For the season, Tampa Bay allows only 2.6 goals per game (5th in NHL) and owns the league’s 2nd‑ranked penalty kill at 87.0%, giving them a strong foundation to lean on. If their stars like Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point can rediscover their scoring touch, the Lightning’s balance of defense and elite talent makes them dangerous even in a slump.
Montreal, meanwhile, dropped a 4–3 game to St. Louis on December 8, and their defensive issues remain glaring. The Canadiens allow 3.4 goals per game (28th) and rank 25th in penalty kill at 78.2%, a weakness that Tampa Bay can exploit if they generate chances on the man advantage. While Montreal’s offense has been solid at 3.2 goals per game, their lack of shot volume (25.3 per game, 29th) leaves them vulnerable against a disciplined opponent. Tampa Bay’s struggles have been about finishing, not structure, and against a team with defensive lapses like Montreal, this is a spot where the Lightning can break through and get back in the win column.
Lightning vs Canadiens Over/Under Pick
- Under 6 (5 Units)
The Under makes sense in Lightning–Canadiens given how both teams have been trending. Tampa Bay’s most recent outing was a 2–0 loss to Toronto on December 8, their fourth straight defeat, and they’ve managed just four total goals across that stretch, showing how badly their offense has cooled off. Montreal, meanwhile, dropped a 4–3 game to St. Louis on December 8, and while their attack averages 3.2 goals per game, they generate only 25.3 shots per game (29th), often relying on efficiency rather than volume. Tampa Bay’s defense remains elite, allowing just 2.6 goals per game (5th) with the 2nd‑ranked penalty kill at 87.0%, and that structure combined with their scoring slump points toward a lower‑event contest. With Montreal’s defensive lapses balanced by Tampa’s inability to finish, this matchup sets up well to stay under the total.
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