Tampa Bay Lightning vs Washington Capitals Prediction and Picks - November 22, 2025
Use Code SSWC National Hockey League action on Saturday evening, and we have a Tampa Bay Lightning vs Washington Capitals prediction ready to rock and roll. The Bolts enter this game off a 2-1 OT win at home over the Oilers to move to 11-9 on the year. The Capitals are at 11-10 on the year, and they come in off an 8-4 road win over Montreal. Tampa Bay won the first meeting this year at home by a score of 3-2. Read on to see our Lightning vs Capitals prediction.
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Bolts Shock Oilers In OT
Tampa Bay enters this matchup at 11-7-2 after a gritty 2-1 overtime win against the Edmonton Oilers on November 20. Jake Guentzel scored the game-winner just 1:43 into OT, while Nick Paul tied things late in regulation with his first goal of the season. Andrei Vasilevskiy was sharp, stopping 24 shots to secure the victory. The Lightning have now won back-to-back games and are finding ways to grind out results even when the offense isn’t firing on all cylinders.
Offensively, Tampa Bay averages 3.1 goals per game, ranking 14th in the league. Guentzel has been a huge addition, already with 21 points in 20 games, while Nikita Kucherov continues to be a steady force with nine goals and 19 points. Brandon Hagel has chipped in 15 points, and Anthony Cirelli has been reliable in the middle with seven goals. The Lightning’s power play sits at 17.7%, middle of the pack, but their ability to generate offense from multiple lines keeps them dangerous. Faceoff struggles (44.8%) remain a concern, but their depth scoring has helped offset that weakness.
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Defensively, Tampa Bay has been solid, allowing 2.9 goals per game and ranking fifth in penalty kill efficiency at 85.7%. Vasilevskiy, who will start this one, owns a 2.52 GAA and has been steady despite a heavy workload. Victor Hedman continues to anchor the blue line with 12 assists, while Erik Cernak and Ryan McDonagh provide physicality and shot-blocking. The Lightning’s discipline will be tested against Washington’s power forwards, but their ability to limit high-danger chances has been a strength.
The Caps Have Exploded On Offense
Washington comes in at 11-8-2 after a dominant 8-4 win over the Montreal Canadiens on November 20, a game highlighted by Alex Ovechkin’s 33rd career hat trick. Ethan Frank added two goals and two assists, while Sonny Milano scored twice. Logan Thompson stopped 24 shots to earn the win, and Dylan Strome chipped in three assists. The Capitals have now won three straight, scoring 15 goals in their last two outings, and look like a team finding its offensive rhythm.
Offensively, Washington averages 3.2 goals per game, ranking 11th in the NHL. Ovechkin has 20 points on the season, while Tom Wilson and Dylan Strome have matched that production with 20 points apiece. John Carlson continues to drive play from the back end with 19 points, and Jakob Chychrun has added 17 points while playing heavy minutes. The Capitals fire nearly 30 shots per game, and while their power play sits at 16.1%, the recent surge in scoring shows they’re heating up.
Defensively, Washington has been one of the league’s better units, allowing just 2.6 goals per game (4th overall). Thompson has been excellent in net, posting a 2.00 GAA and a .920 save percentage across 14 starts. Carlson and Chychrun provide stability on the blue line, while Martin Fehervary and Rasmus Sandin add depth. The penalty kill has been shaky at 72.1%, but their ability to control possession and limit shots (26.6 per game) has kept them competitive. Against Tampa Bay, the Capitals will look to use their balanced attack and strong goaltending to extend their winning streak.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Washington Capitals Pick
Lightning vs Capitals Moneyline Pick
- Washington -117 (5 Units)
Washington looks like the stronger side here, especially given how well they’ve been playing lately. The Capitals have averaged 3.2 goals per game and are coming off an offensive surge with 15 goals in their last two outings. Alex Ovechkin, Tom Wilson, and Dylan Strome have all hit the 20‑point mark already, while John Carlson and Jakob Chychrun are driving play from the blue line. Logan Thompson has been steady in net with a 2.00 GAA, giving Washington the kind of balance between scoring depth and reliable goaltending that makes them tough to beat.
The matchup also tilts toward Washington because of their defensive consistency. They rank 4th in the NHL in goals allowed (2.6 per game) and limit opponents to just 26.6 shots per contest. Tampa Bay has firepower, but their faceoff struggles and reliance on Guentzel and Kucherov for offense could be exposed against a Capitals team that controls possession and forces opponents into low‑percentage looks. With Washington’s recent scoring surge and Thompson’s form in net, backing the Caps feels like the sharper play in this spot.
Lightning vs Capitals Over/Under Pick
- Under 6 (4 Units)
The Under 6 makes sense here because both teams have defensive structures and goaltending that can keep scoring in check. Washington may be riding a hot streak offensively, but they still rank 4th in the NHL in goals allowed (2.6 per game) and Logan Thompson has been excellent with a 2.00 GAA. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, leans on Andrei Vasilevskiy, who owns a 2.52 GAA and has the ability to steal low‑scoring games. Even with stars like Ovechkin and Kucherov on the ice, the matchup sets up for tighter play. Tampa Bay’s penalty kill is among the league’s best at 85.7%, while Washington limits opponents to just 26.6 shots per game. Combine that with Tampa’s own defensive discipline and the likelihood of both teams leaning on their goaltenders, and the Under 6 feels like the sharper angle despite Washington’s recent offensive surge.
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