Toronto Maple Leafs vs Buffalo Sabres Pick and Prediction October 24th, 2025
Use Code SSWC The Buffalo Sabres will host the Toronto Maple Leafs on Friday at 7:00 p.m. EST in KeyBank Center. Check out our Toronto Maple Leafs vs Buffalo Sabres pick and prediction here!
While it is still early in the season, the Maple Leafs are 4th in the Atlantic Division with seven points in seven games. They are still only five points behind the Canadiens for the top spot in the division with two games in hand, though. They are 0-1 on the road and 3-2-1 at home thus far. Meanwhile, the Sabres are 6th in the Metro division, obtaining six points in the first seven games of the season. They are 3-2 at home this season and 0-2 on the road. Buffalo is hoping to keep their winning streak going after a win in their most recent contest. Toronto is favored at a -123 money line while the total is set at an even six goals. Can the Sabres improve their winning streak with a home win?
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Toronto Still Focused on Baseball
Toronto fell to the New Jersey Devils in their most recent contest by a score of 5-2. John Tavares and William Nylander each had two points on the day, with the former having a goal and an assist while the latter had two assists to his name. Tavares led the team in shots with five, and Matias Maccelli scored the other goal for the Maple Leafs. Anthony Stolarz stopped 30 of 34 possible saves in the effort.
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Toronto's offense ranks 10th in goals per game, 28th on the power play, 19th in shots per game, and 4th in the face-off circle. Nylander has the most points on the season with 13, including a team-high 11 assists. John Tavares has the most goals with four, and Auston Matthews is tied with two other forwards at a +3. Matthew Knies has a forward-high six penalty minutes, and Matthews has spent the most time on the ice on average among the offensive skaters for Toronto, clocking in at just under 22 minutes per game. Tavares and Knies are the only ones who have scored a goal on the power play, and Nylander has two power-play assists. Matthews commands the lead in shots with 29 overall.
Morgan Rielly predictably leads the defense with six points, including two goals and four assists. Jake McCabe has a +4 to lead the unit, and Simon Benoit has a defense-high 11 penalty minutes. Rielly is the leader in average ice time for the Maple Leafs with an average of over 22 minutes. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is the only defender to have a point on the power play this season, with one assist. All of Buium's points have come from the power play, effectively making him the leader on the blue line in power-play points. Rielly leads the defense in shots with 20, though. Stolarz has the majority of reps in net for the Maple Leafs, and he has a 3.01 GAA with an 89.4% save percentage in six games played this season. Rielly is one of four players listed on the injury report, although he is day-to-day. The rest, however, including Chris Tanev, Scott Laughton, and Marshall Rifai, are all on IR. As a whole, the defense of Toronto ranks 25th in goals against, 14th on the penalty kill, and 19th in shots against per game.
Buffalo Beginning Again
Buffalo earned a 4-2 victory over the Detroit Red Wings to close the gap a bit in the division. Jack Quinn led the way with a goal and two assists, while Ryan McLeod also chipped in a pair of assists. Alex Tuch, Jason Zucker, and Tyson Kozak each scored as well for Buffalo, while Tage Thompson led the team with five shots. Colten Ellis made 29 of 31 saves in the victory.
The Sabres are currently ranked 24th in goals per game, 9th in shots per game, 31st in the face-off circle, and 9th on the power play. Quinn leads the unit with six points, along with Zach Benson and Josh Doan. Benson has all of his points in assists, and the leading goal-scorer for the Sabres is Zucker with four. Mason Geersten has the most penalty minutes with 12, and Kozak leads the team with a +2. Tuch is the only offensive skater to average more than twenty minutes of ice time thus far and three different players are tied with two goals each on the power play. Benson and Thompson each have two power-play assists, and Thompson has the most shots on the squad with 27. Bryson and Zucker are two key players listed on the injury report, with each being listed as day-to-day. The other five players, including Michael Kesselring, are listed as out for this upcoming matchup.
On the defensive side, Rasmus Dahlin leads most categories with five points, five assists, a +2 ratio, over 25 minutes of average ice time, three power play assists, and 21 total shots on the season. While no defender has scored a goal on the power play yet, Owen Power is the only defender to score at all for the Sabres. He has one goal to his name. Zach Metsa and Jacob Bryson each have a +1, and Conor Timmins has eight penalty minutes to his name. Alex Lyon has taken the mantle as the starting goalie for the Sabers. Currently, he has a 2.55 GAA and a 92.4% save percentage through six games. Overall, the defense of Buffalo ranks 14th in goals against, 2nd on the penalty kill, and 31st in shots against.
Maple Leafs vs Sabres Pick
Spread Pick for Maple Leafs vs Sabres
- Toronto Maple Leafs Money Line (4 units)
I would love to take the Sabres at home here, but the Maple Leafs are simply too talented on offense to discredit them, particularly against a defense giving up the 2nd most shots in the league. Toronto has won its last five games in a row against the Sabres, and they have scored an average of 4.5 goals per game in its last four matchups against Buffalo. Anytime I start to regain faith in Buffalo, they have always left me regretting it, so I'm rolling with the Maple Leafs as a slight favorite here.
Over/Under pick for Panthers vs Bruins
- Over 6 (4 units)
The Sabres give up almost as many shots as anyone else, and although Lyon is performing at a great level right now, I expect regression to arrive sooner or later. Toronto ranks in the top ten in goals and the top five in faceoff percentage. The Maple Leafs should win some key face-offs and keep the puck in Buffalo's end, putting constant pressure on them. The trio of Nylander, Tavares, and Matthews can be unstoppable when they are at their peak ,and Toronto has gone 5-2 on the over this season. Toronto has given up 4+ goals in three of their last four games, and Buffalo has given up 3+ goals in five of their first seven games. I expect the Maple Leafs to score at least four here with Buffalo doing enough to push the total to at least six.
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