Vegas Golden Knights vs Tampa Bay Lightning Pick and Prediction October 26th, 2025
Use Code SSWC The Tampa Bay Lightning will host the Vegas Golden Knights on Sunday at 5:00 p.m. EST in Amalie Arena. Check out our Vegas Golden Knights vs Tampa Bay Lightning pick and prediction here!
While it is still early in the season, the Golden Knights are at the top of the Pacific Division with 12 points through eight games played. They are 3-0-1 at home and 2-1-1 on the road, hoping to avoid a two-game losing streak here. Meanwhile, the Lightning are at the bottom of the Atlantic division with only six points through eight games. They are 1-3 at home and 1-1-2 on the road this season. After obtaining two points in their last game, they will want to keep the momentum going with a win here. Interestingly, the Lightning are favored at a -140 money line while the total is set at 6.5 goals. Can the Lightning earn an upset home win?
Don't sit in the penalty box this season? Check our winning free NHL picks!
Vegas Vying for Another Run
The Golden Knights fell to the Florida Panthers by a score of 3-0 in their most recent contest. Obviously, nobody could secure a point, but Ivan Barbashev and Ben Hutton led the team in shots with three. Akira Schmid had a decent enough outing in goal, stopping 23 of 26 shots, but the offense couldn't muster up anything to help.
Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Subscribe Now
Vegas's offense ranks 5th in goals per game, 5th on the power play, 14th in shots per game, and 4th in the face-off circle. Jack Eichel leads the squad in points with 16, and he is leading the team by far in shots with 35 as well. Pavel Dorofeyev has the most goals on the squad with seven, and Mark Stone has the most assists overall with 11. Mitch Marner has the best +/- ratio with a +9, and Colton Sissons has the most penalty minutes on the unit with 13. Marner barely has the edge in ice time among forwards with an average of 18:44. On the power play, Dorofeyev leads with four goals and Eichel has eight power-play assists to his name. If Vegas can continue this level of proficiency on the offensive end, another deep playoff run should be in their sights.
Four different defenders are tied for a blue-line high two points on the season, with Kaeden Korczak being the only defender to have scored thus far. Korzak, Zach Whitecloud, and Shea Theodore also have a defense-high +2, while Noah Hanifin has the most time spent on the ice on average at 24 minutes per game. Jeremy Lauzon also has 13 penalty minutes on the year, and nobody has a point on the power play among defenders. Theodore has the most shots among blue-liners at 18. Adin Hill and Schmid have taken their fair share of reps in net for the Golden Knights, with Schmid having a slightly better stat line with a 2.57 GAA and an 89.6% save percentage. Overall, Vegas ranks 12th in goals against, 17th on the penalty kill, and 6th in shots against. Stone, Hill, and Hanifin are all out for this upcoming contest.
Tampa in Trouble?
The Lightning earned a 4-3 victory over the Anaheim Ducks in their most recent contest. Anthony Cirelli led the charge with two goals and an assist on the day, while Jake Guentzel scored the other two goals. Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov, and Brandon Hagel each had two assists as well, while Kucherov and Guentzel led the team with six shots on goal each. Jonas Johansson stopped 37 of 40 shots in the effort.
The Lightning are currently ranked 26th in goals per game, 26th in shots per game, 29th in the face-off circle, and 20th on the power play. Guentzel is currently leading the team with nine points, and Cirelli has the most goals on the team with five. Guentzel has five assists to his name, and Pontus Holmberg of all people has a team-high +2 thus far. Curtis Douglas has 12 penalty minutes to his name to lead the forwards, and Guentzel has the most ice time on average at an even 19 minutes. Cirelli predictably has the most power play goals with two, while Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Guentzel each have two power play assists. Guentzel has led the team in shots with 29 as well.
On the defensive side, Victor Hedman is still the anchor with seven points, all assists. Ryan McDonaugh has the most goals among defenders with three and Emil Lilleberg has 26 penalty minutes already. Maxwell Crozier is the current leader in +/- with a +2 and Hedman is the only player on Tampa Bay's roster to average more than 20 minutes of ice time per game. He has four power play assists to lead the unit, and he has the most shots on goal with 13. Andrei Vasilevskiy has taken the majority of reps in net this season and he is averaging a 3.41 GAA and an 88.5% save percentage. If Tampa wants to make another playoff run before their window closes, Vasilevskiy will need to be better than he has performed the past season and change. Overall, the Lightning are ranked 23rd in goals against, 29th in shots against, but they are 5th on the penalty kill. Crozier and Nick Paul are the only ones listed on the injury report, and both are out for this contest.
Golden Knights vs Lightning Pick
Spread Pick for Golden Knights vs Lightning
- Golden Knights Money Line (4 units)
The Lightning still have a solid core that I believe is much better than their record shows, but I don't trust them against Vegas. The Golden Knights have been good ever since they entered the league and with the talent they have, they should remain a contender. The goalie tandem of Schmid and Hill has a 1.71 GAA and a 91.4% save percentage in their last five games, and there's hardly ever a time when the top seed in one division is facing the bottom seed of another and is still an underdog. Vegas is a serious value bet, as I don't exactly have enough faith in the depth of Tampa Bay to come away with a win here.
Over/Under pick for Golden Knights vs Lightning
- Over 6.5 (4 units)
The Lightning have had their woes, but they still have pieces on the offense that can score at any time, including Point, Kucherov, Guentzel, and others. Tampa Bay was lethal on the power play last year, and despite their slow start to this season, I expect them to capitalize on that again. This will be Schmid's first back-to-back start, so we'll see how rusty and tired he is in this one. Vegas is one of the top-scoring offenses in the league right now, averaging around 3.75 goals per game. Considering how Vasilevskiy has been and the fact that they have scored 4+ in four of their last five games, I feel more comfortable taking the over here.
Never Tried Picks and Parlays? Now Is Your Chance
- Get your first daily picks package for ONLY $1 using coupon code BUCK
- If the pick loses, we credit your account with 3 Flex Picks
- If the pick wins, we still give you 1 Flex Pick on the house
- Win or lose, you walk away ahead. One dollar. No catch.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
