Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction and Picks - September 11, 2025
The Baltimore Orioles will close their series against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Camden Yards, and we have you ready to go with the Pirates vs Orioles prediction.
Opening Pitch is slated for 1:05 PM Eastern, with the Orioles game one in a 3-2 final in extra innings. Read on for the Pirates vs Orioles prediction and more free MLB picks.
This article was written before Wednesday's action.
Pittsburgh Drops 4th Straight
Pittsburgh got to work early, scoring its first run in the top of the first inning. They did little else until the 9th, when they forced extra frames. The Pirates finished with five hits. Tommy Pham added the tying home run as the Pirates struck out 10 times. Mike Burrows got the start, and over four innings, he struck out six and allowed one run.
RHP Johan Oviedo is set to take the mound for the Pirates. This season, he has made five starts, posting an overall ERA of 2.70, 24 strikeouts, 11 walks, and a WHIP of 1.10. Oviedo has been more vulnerable on the road this season, but he's held opponents to under .200 at the plate. Ball control has been a problem for Oviedo this season as he's allowed six walks over his last two starts. On the plus side, he's struck out at least five in three of his last four.
On the road this season, Oviedo holds the following splits:
- ERA: 3.00
- Opponent Batting Average (OBA): .222
- BB/K Ratio: 0.33
Pittsburgh enters this contest averaging 3.46 runs per game, placing them 25th in the league. The Pirates maintain a team batting average of .198, ranking 30th overall. On the road, their performance slightly improves, with a batting average of .205. However, their offense has been less effective during night games, with a batting average of .190. The Pirates average 0.8 home runs per game, indicating limited power. They have struggled with runners in scoring position, contributing to their low run production. Defensively, the team allows 4.38 runs per game, ranking 19th in the league. As the season progresses, Pittsburgh will aim to enhance offensive consistency and capitalize on road performance to improve its standings.
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Orioles Playing Competitively Down the Stretch
Baltimore had a largely quiet evening, scoring its first run in the 1st inning, then notching the winning run in the bottom of the 11, courtesy of a Samuel Basallo RBI. Baltimore struck out 12 times, and Jeremiah Jackson added a home run in the 6th. Kyle Bradish got the start, and over seven innings, he struck out six and allowed one run.
LHP Cade Povich is expected to take the mound for the Baltimore Orioles as he continues to navigate his first full MLB season. Povich has made 19 starts, posting a 3-7 record with a 5.15 ERA over 96.2 innings pitched. The young lefty has racked up 103 strikeouts against 35 walks. Home runs have been a problem this season, and Povich has allowed four home runs over his last five starts.
At home this season:
- ERA: 3.65
- Opponent Batting Average (OBA): .217
- BB/K Ratio: 0.38
Baltimore enters this contest averaging 3.76 runs per game, which lands them at 25th in the league. The Orioles have struggled with consistency at the plate this season as they are hovering around the bottom five in overall batting average. That average has ticked up slightly on the road, however. One of the saving graces of the Baltimore offense this season has been its ability to hit the long ball. Currently, they are sitting in the top 10 in home run rate. And while the offense has also climbed into the top 10 in doubles hit per game, they've struggled to drive home runners in scoring position. This is, in large part, due to their bottom-five ranking in both walks received and strikeouts per game. Baltimore will need to stand pat in the box here.
Pirates vs Orioles Pick
Spread Pick for Pirates vs. Orioles
- Baltimore ML (4 Units)
The Orioles have been hitting better out of Camden Yards, and daytime games have featured them hitting some of their best. They are also getting strong starting pitcher and the Pirates do not have a commanding offense. Oviedo has struggled with ball command, and he's holding his weakest ERA when on the road this season. Both of these offenses have struggled, but look for Baltimore to take the series finale.
- Baltimore ML
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,502.00 |
| 2 |  Pro Sports Picks | +1,421.00 |
| 3 |  Brick Haus Sports | +634.00 |
| 4 |  David Delano | +492.00 |
| 5 |  Michael Briggs | +355.00 |
Total for Pirates vs Orioles
- Over 8.5
Even though both of these offenses have struggled, and strikeouts are far too common, neither of these pitchers has done much to instill confidence that they can keep runs off the board. We saw two home runs in game one, and with errant throws from Oviedo and a high home run rate from Povich, we should expect to see more runs here.
Over 8.5
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