Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction and Picks - September 15, 2025
The MLB is winding down with an end-of-season clash between the Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals; look inside for our prediction and picks. The Cincinnati Reds (74-75, 34-41 away) will face the St. Louis Cardinals (73-77, 41-34 home) on Monday, September 15, 2025, at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri. The game is set to begin at 6:45 PM local time, with clear skies and a warm temperature of 91°F expected at first pitch. The Reds will send right-hander Zack Littell (9-8, 3.78 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) to the mound, while the Cardinals counter with left-hander Matthew Liberatore (7-12, 4.35 ERA, 1.33 WHIP). Both teams are coming off contrasting results, with the Reds losing their last three games to the Athletics, while the Cardinals snapped a five-game losing streak with a 3-2 win over the Brewers on September 14. This matchup marks the fourth game of the season series, with the Cardinals leading 2-1.
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Reds Struggle to Find Momentum
The Cincinnati Reds have hit a rough patch in September, losing their last three games to the Athletics, including a 7-4 defeat on September 14. Their offense has struggled to produce consistently, managing just four runs in their last two games combined before the 11-5 blowout loss on September 13. Prior to the series against the A's, the Reds showed some promise by winning two out of three games against the San Diego Padres, including a 2-1 victory on September 10. However, their inability to sustain momentum has been a recurring issue, particularly on the road, where they hold a 34-41 record this season.
Injuries have also plagued the Reds, with key pitchers like Wade Miley, Rhett Lowder, and Brandon Williamson on the 60-day injured list. Offensively, Elly De La Cruz has been a bright spot, leading the team with a .265 batting average, 19 home runs, and 82 RBIs. As a team, the Reds are batting .246 with a .316 on-base percentage and .390 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has been solid, posting a 3.96 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, ranking them in the middle of the pack in runs allowed. However, defensive miscues have been an issue, as they average 0.7 errors per game.
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Cardinals Look to Build on Recent Win
The St. Louis Cardinals finally ended their five-game losing streak with a 3-2 victory over the Milwaukee Brewers on September 14. Despite their struggles, the Cardinals have been solid at home, holding a 41-34 record at Busch Stadium. Their recent skid included a heartbreaking 9-8 extra-inning loss to the Brewers on September 13 and a sweep at the hands of the Seattle Mariners earlier in the week. However, their win against Milwaukee could provide a much-needed confidence boost heading into this divisional matchup.
Matthew Liberatore will take the mound for the Cardinals, looking to improve on his 7-12 record and 4.35 ERA. Offensively, the Cardinals are led by Willson Contreras, who has hit 20 home runs and driven in 79 RBIs while batting .255. Alec Burleson has been a consistent contributor with a team-leading .283 batting average. As a team, the Cardinals are hitting .245 with a .314 on-base percentage and .380 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has struggled, posting a 4.30 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, and their defense has been shaky, averaging 0.8 errors per game. Injuries to key players like Nolan Arenado and Masyn Winn have further hampered their performance, though Arenado is expected to return soon.
Reds vs. Cardinals Pick
Spread Pick for Reds vs. Cardinals
- Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (5 Units)
When analyzing recent betting trends, the Reds have been slightly more reliable against the run line, covering 55.4% of the time as an away team. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have struggled as home favorites, covering just 32.6% of the time. Additionally, the Reds have performed better after a loss, covering 51.3% of the time, compared to the Cardinals’ 43.1% after a win. The Cardinals’ struggles as favorites (33.3% cover rate) and their poor performance against the run line at home make the Reds an appealing pick. With Zack Littell’s solid season and the Reds’ slightly better recent form, Cincinnati is the pick to cover the run line. Go with the Reds!
Over/Under Pick for Reds vs. Cardinals
- Over 8.5 (4 Units)
Both teams have shown a tendency for higher-scoring games in recent matchups. The Cardinals have hit the over in 53.2% of their games this season, including 60.5% as home favorites, while the Reds have gone over in 50% of their games as away underdogs. The Reds’ recent games have also leaned toward higher totals, with their last five games averaging 8.6 runs, including a 16-run game against the Athletics on September 13. Both teams’ pitching staffs have struggled recently, with the Cardinals allowing an average of 6.0 runs per game over their last five contests and the Reds allowing 5.0 runs per game in the same span. Considering the warm weather conditions in St. Louis, which often favor hitters, and the potential for offensive production from both lineups, the over on the projected total runs is the recommended play. Go OVER and Good Luck!
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