Liverpool vs Manchester City Picks and Predictions for Sunday, October 11, 2026
Liverpool host Manchester City on Sunday at Anfield, with kickoff scheduled for 11:30 AM ET and coverage on NBC and Telemundo. Liverpool are sixth in the Premier League with nine points and a 2-3-0 record. The Reds defeated Bournemouth 1-0 in their latest league match after drawing 0-0 with Fulham. Manchester City lead the standings with 15 points and a perfect 5-0-0 record. City defeated Sunderland 5-3 in their latest league outing. Manchester City has won the last three meetings between these clubs, including both league fixtures last season. Cash in a winner with our free soccer picks.
Liverpool Relying on Their Strong Defensive Start
Liverpool has collected nine points from five Premier League matches, recording two victories and three draws. The Reds defeated Ipswich Town 2-0 before drawing 0-0 with Fulham and winning 1-0 at Bournemouth. Liverpool also defeated Atletico Madrid 2-1 in the Champions League and Tottenham 3-1 in the Carabao Cup. Alexander Isak leads Liverpool with four league goals, while Dominik Szoboszlai and Cody Gakpo have scored once each. Gakpo leads the club with three assists, followed by Florian Wirtz and Ryan Gravenberch with one apiece.
Liverpool average 1.40 goals per league match while conceding 0.80, producing a positive goal differential of 0.60 per game. The Reds average 1.54 expected goals and 1.19 expected goals conceded, with 60% possession and a 78% save percentage. Liverpool has recorded three clean sheets through five league fixtures, including their last three matches. Their defensive improvement has helped offset modest attacking production. However, injuries to Gakpo and Isak create uncertainty ahead of Sunday's meeting with the league leaders.
Injuries: Cody Gakpo (questionable), Alexander Isak (questionable), Jeremy Jacquet (questionable), Hugo Ekitike (out), Conor Bradley (out), Giovanni Leoni (out).
Manchester City Looking to Extend Their Perfect Record
Manchester City has won all five Premier League matches this season, collecting 15 points and establishing a three-point advantage over second-place Arsenal. City defeated Sunderland 5-3 in their latest league fixture, with Antoine Semenyo scoring twice and adding an assist. Erling Haaland leads Manchester City with five league goals, while Rayan Cherki has scored three and Semenyo has added two. Semenyo also leads the club with three assists, followed by Josko Gvardiol and Cherki with two each.
Manchester City average 2.60 goals per league match while conceding 1.00, producing a goal differential of 1.60 per game. City average 1.87 expected goals and 1.51 expected goals conceded, with 62% possession and a 74% save percentage. Manchester City has recorded two clean sheets through five league fixtures. Their 13 league goals rank among the division's highest totals. City has also defeated Liverpool in three consecutive meetings across competitions, scoring nine goals while conceding just once during that stretch.
Injuries: Antoine Semenyo (questionable), Nico O'Reilly (questionable). Suspensions: Phil Foden (out).
Key to the Match
Liverpool's defensive record against Manchester City's attacking production is the central matchup. The Reds concede just 0.80 goals per match and have recorded three clean sheets, while City average 2.60 goals and 1.87 expected goals. Liverpool also maintain 60% possession, close to City's 62%, suggesting neither team will have an overwhelming advantage in possession. City's recent success in this fixture adds another challenge for Liverpool. The availability of Isak and Semenyo could also influence how effectively each attack converts chances.
Liverpool vs Manchester City Match Pick
- Liverpool +0.5 (-185)
Liverpool are the pick with a half-goal advantage after remaining unbeaten through five Premier League matches. The Reds have conceded just four goals and recorded three clean sheets, including shutouts in their last three league fixtures. Manchester City has won all five matches, but Liverpool's defensive numbers compare favorably with City's.
Liverpool vs Manchester City Over/Under Pick
- under 2.5 (+140)
Under 2.5 goals is the pick with Liverpool conceding just 0.80 goals per Premier League match and recording three consecutive league clean sheets. The Reds' latest results include a 1-0 victory over Bournemouth, a 0-0 draw with Fulham and a 2-0 win against Ipswich. Manchester City average 2.60 goals, but Liverpool's defensive organization presents a tougher challenge than many recent opponents. A closely contested match featuring limited scoring chances is likely at Anfield on Sunday.