Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Prediction, Tuesday, September 16, 2025
On Tuesday night, the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays meet in the second game of a four-game series at Tropicana Field, and we will set you up with a Blue Jays vs. Rays prediction to go along with Free MLB Picks. Jose Berrios (3.99 ERA) will throw for the Jays while Ryan Pepiot (3.59 ERA) pitches for the Rays. Read on for a prediction on the score and a game breakdown.
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Berrios Takes the Hill for Game Two
Jose Berrios will toe the rubber in the second game of this divisional set with the Tampa Bay Rays. This will be his 30th start of the year. Last week, he allowed five hits and two runs with one walk and four strikeouts across 5 1/3 innings in a no-decision against the Astros.
- After working a season-low two innings his last time out in Cincinnati, Berrios pitched well and threw 5.1 solid innings last Wednesday. He danced around plenty of hard contact to keep the Astros mostly off the board.
- According to Yahoo.com, of their 16 total batted balls, nine were hard-hit and seven were hit harder than 100 mph. Lately, his slurve has been getting throttled, and that happened again last week. That’s a huge reason why he has a 5.28 ERA since the beginning of June.
- The veteran right-hander had tossed at least five frames in each of his first 14 outings of the season, though he's been able to last at least five innings in just nine of his last 15 appearances. Berrios still holds a 3.99 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 135:52 K:BB across 29 starts.
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Rays Playoff Hopes Dwindling
Ryan Pepiot will toe the rubber in the second game of this series.
- Entering Monday, the Rays sit 7 1/2 games behind the Houston Astros, who vaulted into the third wild-card spot after being passed by the Seattle Mariners, who have won nine straight to assume the lead in the AL West.
- Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash's club has seen it fall way back after winning a season-high seven straight and getting within a couple of games of the Mariners. The Rays have dropped seven of their past nine but are 5-1 against Toronto. However, the last time they faced the Blue Jays was May 25th.
The Rays opted to scratch Pepiot ahead of his previous turn through the rotation this past Wednesday. At the same time, he dealt with general body fatigue due to the fact that he had already logged 163 innings this season. The extra time off provided a reset for Pepiot, who will re-enter the rotation this week after he said he felt "back to normal" following a bullpen session Saturday of about 10-to-15 pitches, per MLB.com. Though Pepiot should not face any major workload restrictions on Tuesday, the Rays are not likely to let him push past the 100-pitch mark.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays Game Pick
Money Line Pick for Blue Jays vs. Rays
- Toronto Blue Jays -1.5
Tampa Bay was on a mission through the end of August, and found themselves just a few games behind the Seattle Mariners for the third and final wild card. Unfortunately, the Mariners went on a hot streak, and the Rays proceeded to lose seven of their last nine. They are now 7.5 games behind the final wild card spot, and are close to getting eliminated. I think the Jays deliver a blow here in this series. Pepiot has logged a ton of innings this year (163) and will be on a short workload here. The Jays have a sizzling .836 OPS in September. Take the Jays by two.
Over/Under Pick for Blue Jays vs. Rays
- OVER
The aforementioned Jays have been smacking the ball around for the last two months, and I expect that trend to continue in this series against the Rays. After posting an .821 OPS in August, they have continued their torrid stretch at the plate with an .836 OPS in September. They do well against both lefties and righties, and with Pepiot on a limit, I like them to do damage here. The total has gone over in eight of Tampa’s last 12 home games. Take the over here.
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