Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Pick and Prediction September 9th, 2025
Two NL East squads go head-to-head when the Marlins host the Nationals on Tuesday at 6:40 p.m. EST in LoanDepot Park. Check out our Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins pick and prediction here!
Miami had a hot streak but eventually fell off to the point where they are all but mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. They are currently sat at 3rd place in the division with a 66-78 record, ten games back of a playoff spot. Even worse, they are 3-7 in their last ten. Meanwhile, Washington is at the bottom of the division with a 59-84 record. However, they are riding a three-game winning streak heading into this contest. Miami is favored at a -130 money line while the total is set at 8.5 runs. Can the Nationals improbably improve their win streak to four?
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Miami Needs More
Miami fell to the Nationals by a score of 15-7 in their latest outing. Victor Mesa Jr. had a homer and three RBI while Jakob Marsee had a solo shot in the effort. Janson Junk had a poor outing, giving up six runs in only 4.1 innings while striking out three and walking two.
The Marlins didn't do much at the trade deadline despite their hot streak. Upper management recognized that now was not the time to make a genuine push, but this is a year to build on. Nick Fortes was sent to the Rays for Matthew Etzel in the first transaction in July for Miami. The biggest move the Marlins made, however, was sending Jesus Sanchez to the Astros for Ryan Gusto, Chase Jaworsky, and Esmil Valenica. We'll see if the Marlins eventually put themselves back in the conversation of relevance, but this is a start in the right direction.
Adam Mazur will take the hill as the starter in this contest. So far, the righty has an 0-2 record through three starts and 12 strikeouts through only 15.2 innings pitched. His ERA and WHIP are a bit high for Miami's liking at a 5.74 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP, but Miami is hoping that can improve sooner rather than later.
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Washington Waiting for Next Year
The Nationals earned a 15-7 win over the Marlins in their most recent contest. Josh Bell had a career day with two homers and six RBI while James Wood had three hits, a walk, and an RBI. Dylan Crews also had a homer with four RBI on the day. Paul DeJong was the only other player with multiple RBI. Cade Cavalli had a solid performance as the starter with two runs surrendered in five innings. While the bullpen wasn't the most effective, the offense carried the team this time.
Washington made several moves at the trade deadline and while it doesn't help them for the rest of this season, it will be interesting to see how things play out over the coming years. Amed Rosario was sent to the Yankees for Clayton Beeter and Browm Martinez to start. Andrew Chafin was sent to the Angels with Luis Garcia for Jake Elder and Sam Brown next. Then, Kyle Finnegan was sent to Detroit for Josh Randall and R.J. Sales. Next, Alex Call was traded to the Dodgers for Sean Paul Linan and Eriq Swan. Finally, Michael Soroka was sent to Chicago for Ronny Cruz and Christian Franklin.
Mitchell Parker was chosen to be the starter in this one. So far, he has a 5.87 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP, both above his career averages. Parker has a 7-15 record through 28 starts and 98 strikeouts in 145.2 innings pitched. The lefty started out strong with a 3.19 ERA in April, but then collapsed in May with a 7.94 ERA. He settled down a bit in June with a 4.80 ERA but then it ballooned to a 6.04 ERA the next month. His August was worse than any other month with a 10.21 ERA.
Nationals vs Marlins Pick
Spread Pick for Nationals vs Marlins Pick
- Washington Nationals Money Line (4 units)
I'm riding with the hot hand, as it gives me the best value. Washington has won three in a row and Miami is on a bit of a skid right now. I can't trust either starter right now and Washington's record on the road is nearly identical to Miami's home record. With nothing to play for on either side, I have slightly more confidence in Washington, and it helps that it also gives me the most bang for my buck as slight underdogs.
Over/Under Pick for Nationals vs Marlins
- Over 8.5 (5 units)
Neither pitcher can be trusted right now. Parker had a 10.21 ERA in the month of August, so I doubt I really need any more reason to convince you to follow me with the over. Nevertheless, Parker has an 8.22 ERA across his last five starts and he has given 11 runs in his last 14 innings pitched against the Marlins. Meanwhile, Miami has given up 9+ runs in three of their last five games. Mazur has a 6.26 ERA through his last five starts and hasn't given up less than four runs in each of his starts against the Nationals. Both teams have also hit the over in the majority of their contests this season.
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