2026 WNBA Betting Trends: Team Spread, Moneyline, and Totals Records
2026 WNBA Betting Trends: Team Spread, Moneyline, and Totals Records
The 2026 WNBA season has produced clear market separation, and the team-by-team numbers show where the value has landed. The Chicago Sky have held their spot as the league's best cover team, while Atlanta and New York have cost backers money against the spread. Below are the full 15-team rankings for every major market to sharpen your WNBA picks and predictions.
Spread and total records reflect flat 1-unit stakes through August 5, 2026. A positive ROI means blindly backing that side would have shown a profit.
Best Season-Long Trends at a Glance
Three angles stand out: Chicago against the spread (17-11, plus 15.9 percent), Toronto on the Over (19-9, plus 29.5 percent), and Minnesota's road dominance (13-2 outright). Each is anchored by a full-season sample, which is what separates a real market edge from a hot streak.
Against the Spread Trends
Chicago leads the league at 17-11, with Washington second at 16-11 and Seattle third. Atlanta and New York sit at the bottom and belong on the fade side of most spreads.
| Rank | Team | ATS Record | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Sky | 17-11 | +4.45u | +15.9% |
| 2 | Washington Mystics | 16-11 | +3.55u | +13.2% |
| 3 | Seattle Storm | 17-13 | +2.45u | +8.2% |
| 4 | Golden State Valkyries | 16-13 | +1.55u | +5.3% |
| 5 | Dallas Wings | 15-13 | +0.64u | +2.3% |
| 6 | Indiana Fever | 15-14 | -0.36u | -1.2% |
| 7 | Minnesota Lynx | 15-14 | -0.36u | -1.2% |
| 8 | Portland Fire | 15-15 | -1.36u | -4.5% |
| 9 | Las Vegas Aces | 14-14 | -1.27u | -4.5% |
| 10 | Los Angeles Sparks | 13-13 | -1.18u | -4.5% |
| 11 | Connecticut Sun | 14-16 | -3.27u | -10.9% |
| 12 | Phoenix Mercury | 14-16 | -3.27u | -10.9% |
| 13 | Toronto Tempo | 11-14 | -4.00u | -16.0% |
| 14 | New York Liberty | 11-17 | -7.00u | -25.0% |
| 15 | Atlanta Dream | 10-19 | -9.91u | -34.2% |
Moneyline Trends (Straight Up)
Moneyline bets are priced at each team's own odds rather than a standard number, so we show win-loss records and home and away splits rather than a flat-stake ROI, which would not reflect what a bettor actually earns. Minnesota leads at 25-6 and has been nearly untouchable on the road at 13-2. Connecticut and Seattle have been the league's weakest teams outright.
| Rank | Team | Record | Win Pct | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Lynx | 25-6 | 0.806 | 12-4 | 13-2 |
| 2 | Golden State Valkyries | 21-9 | 0.700 | 13-4 | 8-5 |
| 3 | Las Vegas Aces | 21-9 | 0.700 | 9-5 | 12-4 |
| 4 | Dallas Wings | 19-11 | 0.633 | 9-5 | 10-6 |
| 5 | Indiana Fever | 19-11 | 0.633 | 11-5 | 8-6 |
| 6 | Atlanta Dream | 18-11 | 0.621 | 10-5 | 8-6 |
| 7 | New York Liberty | 18-13 | 0.581 | 9-5 | 9-8 |
| 8 | Washington Mystics | 16-12 | 0.571 | 8-6 | 8-6 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Sparks | 11-17 | 0.393 | 5-9 | 6-8 |
| 10 | Phoenix Mercury | 12-19 | 0.387 | 5-10 | 7-9 |
| 11 | Chicago Sky | 11-19 | 0.367 | 7-8 | 4-11 |
| 12 | Portland Fire | 11-19 | 0.367 | 6-9 | 5-10 |
| 13 | Toronto Tempo | 10-20 | 0.333 | 6-11 | 4-9 |
| 14 | Connecticut Sun | 7-23 | 0.233 | 4-10 | 3-13 |
| 15 | Seattle Storm | 6-26 | 0.188 | 4-11 | 2-15 |
Total Trends (Over / Under)
We rank the Over and Under separately since they are opposite bets. The Over is where the value sits — Toronto leads outright, with Indiana, New York, and Los Angeles tied just behind, while Dallas is the only team left showing a profitable Under.
Best Over Teams
| Rank | Team | Over Record (O-U) | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toronto Tempo | 19-9 | +29.5% |
| 2 | Indiana Fever | 20-10 | +27.3% |
| 3 | New York Liberty | 20-10 | +27.3% |
| 4 | Los Angeles Sparks | 18-9 | +27.3% |
| 5 | Chicago Sky | 19-10 | +25.1% |
| 6 | Minnesota Lynx | 19-11 | +20.9% |
| 7 | Portland Fire | 19-11 | +20.9% |
| 8 | Atlanta Dream | 17-12 | +11.9% |
| 9 | Connecticut Sun | 17-13 | +8.2% |
| 10 | Las Vegas Aces | 16-13 | +5.3% |
| 11 | Phoenix Mercury | 16-14 | +1.8% |
| 12 | Golden State Valkyries | 15-14 | -1.2% |
| 13 | Seattle Storm | 16-16 | -4.5% |
| 14 | Washington Mystics | 14-14 | -4.5% |
| 15 | Dallas Wings | 13-16 | -14.4% |
Best Under Teams
| Rank | Team | Under Record (O-U) | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dallas Wings | 13-16 | +5.3% |
| 2 | Seattle Storm | 16-16 | -4.5% |
| 3 | Washington Mystics | 14-14 | -4.5% |
| 4 | Golden State Valkyries | 15-14 | -7.8% |
| 5 | Phoenix Mercury | 16-14 | -10.9% |
| 6 | Las Vegas Aces | 16-13 | -14.4% |
| 7 | Connecticut Sun | 17-13 | -17.3% |
| 8 | Atlanta Dream | 17-12 | -21.0% |
| 9 | Minnesota Lynx | 19-11 | -30.0% |
| 10 | Portland Fire | 19-11 | -30.0% |
| 11 | Chicago Sky | 19-10 | -34.2% |
| 12 | Indiana Fever | 20-10 | -36.4% |
| 13 | Los Angeles Sparks | 18-9 | -36.4% |
| 14 | New York Liberty | 20-10 | -36.4% |
| 15 | Toronto Tempo | 19-9 | -38.6% |
Trends to Fade
Three teams have been consistent money-losers against the spread and belong on the other side of your plays: the Atlanta Dream (minus 34.2 percent), the New York Liberty (minus 25.0 percent), and the Toronto Tempo (minus 16.0 percent). Note that both New York and Toronto are spread fades but sit among the league's best Over teams, so those angles pair rather than conflict.
How We Use These Trends
Season-long numbers are a starting point, not a finished play. A team covering the spread at a strong clip tells you the market has been slow to adjust to how it wins, but the matchup and the closing number still decide each night. With the WNBA's shorter schedule, these rankings carry more noise than a full baseball season, so we treat them as a filter and let the specific game drive the final picks and predictions.
For more WNBA picks and predictions, visit WNBA picks and predictions.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which WNBA team has the best against-the-spread trend in 2026?
The Chicago Sky lead the league against the spread at 17-11, returning 15.9 percent on flat 1-unit stakes. The Washington Mystics are second at 16-11 (plus 13.2 percent), with Seattle third, making them the most reliable cover teams this season.
Which WNBA teams should bettors fade?
The Atlanta Dream have been the worst spread team at 10-19 (minus 34.2 percent), with the New York Liberty at 11-17 (minus 25.0 percent) and the Toronto Tempo at 11-14 (minus 16.0 percent) close behind. All three have cost backers money laying the number.
Which teams are winning most often outright?
The Minnesota Lynx lead the league at 25-6, with the Golden State Valkyries and Las Vegas Aces both at 21-9. Minnesota has been nearly untouchable on the road at 13-2, with Las Vegas close behind at 12-4.
Why is there no ROI on the moneyline table?
Moneyline bets are priced at each team's actual odds, which swing from heavy favorite to long underdog game to game. A flat-stake ROI figure would be misleading because it assumes every bet costs the same, and moneyline bets do not. Win-loss records and home and away splits tell you what actually happened without pretending to a profit number the pricing cannot support.
Which teams hit the Over most often?
The Toronto Tempo top the Over board at 19-9 (plus 29.5 percent), with the Indiana Fever, New York Liberty, and Los Angeles Sparks all tied just behind at plus 27.3 percent. All of them have played well above the pace the market expected.
Are there any reliable Under plays right now?
Only one. The Dallas Wings are the lone team with a profitable Under at plus 5.3 percent. Every other club sits at break-even or worse, so this remains a league that leans firmly toward the Over.
How often are these trends updated?
These tables reflect the 2026 WNBA regular season through August 5 and are refreshed as new results come in. Because the WNBA plays fewer games than other leagues, each result moves the ROI more, so check back before locking in picks and predictions.
How is ROI calculated?
For the spread and total, every wager is treated as a flat 1-unit stake at standard pricing. Units is the running profit or loss across a team's games; ROI is that unit total divided by the number of bets, shown as a percentage. A positive ROI means backing that side all season would have shown a profit. The moneyline is excluded from this calculation because it is priced at variable odds.
Methodology
Spread and total results treat each game as a flat 1-unit wager at standard pricing — a cover for the spread, an Over or Under for the total. Units is the cumulative profit or loss; ROI is units divided by total bets. Moneyline is shown as a win-loss record only: because those bets are priced at each team's own odds rather than a standard number, a flat-stake ROI would not reflect what a bettor actually earns. Records cover the 2026 WNBA regular season across all 15 teams. Flat staking keeps every team on equal footing so a few heavy favorites or longshots cannot distort the spread and total rankings. WNBA samples are smaller than other leagues, so treat these trends as directional signals rather than settled edges.
21+. Please play responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Records reflect the 2026 WNBA regular season through August 5, 2026 and are subject to change.