2026 WNBA Betting Trends: Team Spread, Moneyline, and Totals Records
Use Code SSWC The 2026 WNBA season has produced clear market separation, and the team-by-team numbers show where the value has landed. The Golden State Valkyries have pulled clear as the league's best cover team, while Atlanta and Phoenix have cost backers money all year. Below are the full 15-team rankings for every major market to sharpen your WNBA picks and predictions.
Spread and total records reflect flat 1-unit stakes through July 16, 2026. A positive ROI means blindly backing that side would have shown a profit.
Best Season-Long Trends at a Glance
Three angles stand out: Golden State against the spread (15-9, plus 19.3 percent), Los Angeles on the Over (16-6, plus 38.9 percent), and the Minnesota and Las Vegas road records (both 10-2 outright). Each is anchored by a full-season sample, which is what separates a real market edge from a hot streak.
Against the Spread Trends
The Valkyries lead the league at 15-9, with Minnesota second at 13-10 and Chicago third. Atlanta and Phoenix sit at the bottom and belong on the fade side of most spreads.
Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Subscribe Now
| Rank | Team | ATS Record | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Golden State Valkyries | 15-9 | +4.64u | +19.3% |
| 2 | Minnesota Lynx | 13-10 | +1.82u | +7.9% |
| 3 | Chicago Sky | 12-10 | +0.91u | +4.1% |
| 4 | Dallas Wings | 12-10 | +0.91u | +4.1% |
| 5 | Connecticut Sun | 13-11 | +0.82u | +3.4% |
| 6 | Seattle Storm | 13-11 | +0.82u | +3.4% |
| 7 | Washington Mystics | 11-10 | +0.00u | +0.0% |
| 8 | Portland Fire | 12-12 | -1.09u | -4.5% |
| 9 | Indiana Fever | 11-12 | -2.00u | -8.7% |
| 10 | Los Angeles Sparks | 10-11 | -1.91u | -9.1% |
| 11 | New York Liberty | 10-11 | -1.91u | -9.1% |
| 12 | Toronto Tempo | 9-10 | -1.82u | -9.6% |
| 13 | Las Vegas Aces | 10-12 | -2.91u | -13.2% |
| 14 | Atlanta Dream | 9-15 | -6.82u | -28.4% |
| 15 | Phoenix Mercury | 9-15 | -6.82u | -28.4% |
Moneyline Trends (Straight Up)
Moneyline bets are priced at each team's own odds rather than a standard number, so we show win-loss records and home and away splits rather than a flat-stake ROI, which would not reflect what a bettor actually earns. Minnesota leads at 19-6, and both the Lynx and the Aces have been dominant on the road at 10-2. Connecticut and Seattle have been the league's weakest teams outright.
| Rank | Team | Record | Win Pct | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Lynx | 19-6 | 0.760 | 9-4 | 10-2 |
| 2 | Golden State Valkyries | 18-7 | 0.720 | 10-3 | 8-4 |
| 3 | Las Vegas Aces | 17-7 | 0.708 | 7-5 | 10-2 |
| 4 | Dallas Wings | 16-8 | 0.667 | 7-3 | 9-5 |
| 5 | Atlanta Dream | 14-10 | 0.583 | 8-4 | 6-6 |
| 6 | Indiana Fever | 14-10 | 0.583 | 8-5 | 6-5 |
| 7 | Washington Mystics | 12-10 | 0.545 | 5-5 | 7-5 |
| 8 | New York Liberty | 13-11 | 0.542 | 7-5 | 6-6 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Sparks | 10-13 | 0.435 | 5-7 | 5-6 |
| 10 | Portland Fire | 10-14 | 0.417 | 6-6 | 4-8 |
| 11 | Toronto Tempo | 10-14 | 0.417 | 6-8 | 4-6 |
| 12 | Chicago Sky | 8-16 | 0.333 | 4-7 | 4-9 |
| 13 | Phoenix Mercury | 8-17 | 0.320 | 3-8 | 5-9 |
| 14 | Connecticut Sun | 6-18 | 0.250 | 4-10 | 2-8 |
| 15 | Seattle Storm | 6-20 | 0.231 | 4-8 | 2-12 |
Total Trends (Over / Under)
We rank the Over and Under separately since they are opposite bets. The Over is where the value sits — Los Angeles, Chicago, and Toronto have all cleared the number consistently, while only Golden State and Seattle show a profitable Under.
Best Over Teams
| Rank | Team | Over Record (O-U) | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles Sparks | 16-6 | +38.9% |
| 2 | Chicago Sky | 15-8 | +24.5% |
| 3 | Toronto Tempo | 14-8 | +21.5% |
| 4 | Minnesota Lynx | 15-9 | +19.3% |
| 5 | New York Liberty | 14-9 | +16.2% |
| 6 | Indiana Fever | 14-10 | +11.4% |
| 7 | Portland Fire | 14-10 | +11.4% |
| 8 | Atlanta Dream | 13-11 | +3.4% |
| 9 | Connecticut Sun | 13-11 | +3.4% |
| 10 | Phoenix Mercury | 12-12 | -4.5% |
| 11 | Washington Mystics | 11-11 | -4.5% |
| 12 | Dallas Wings | 11-12 | -8.7% |
| 13 | Las Vegas Aces | 11-12 | -8.7% |
| 14 | Seattle Storm | 12-14 | -11.9% |
| 15 | Golden State Valkyries | 11-13 | -12.5% |
Best Under Teams
| Rank | Team | Under Record (O-U) | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Golden State Valkyries | 11-13 | +3.4% |
| 2 | Seattle Storm | 12-14 | +2.8% |
| 3 | Dallas Wings | 11-12 | -0.4% |
| 4 | Las Vegas Aces | 11-12 | -0.4% |
| 5 | Phoenix Mercury | 12-12 | -4.5% |
| 6 | Washington Mystics | 11-11 | -4.5% |
| 7 | Atlanta Dream | 13-11 | -12.5% |
| 8 | Connecticut Sun | 13-11 | -12.5% |
| 9 | Indiana Fever | 14-10 | -20.5% |
| 10 | Portland Fire | 14-10 | -20.5% |
| 11 | New York Liberty | 14-9 | -25.3% |
| 12 | Minnesota Lynx | 15-9 | -28.4% |
| 13 | Toronto Tempo | 14-8 | -30.6% |
| 14 | Chicago Sky | 15-8 | -33.6% |
| 15 | Los Angeles Sparks | 16-6 | -48.0% |
Trends to Fade
Three teams have been consistent money-losers against the spread and belong on the other side of your plays: the Atlanta Dream (minus 28.4 percent), the Phoenix Mercury (minus 28.4 percent), and the Las Vegas Aces (minus 13.2 percent). Note that Las Vegas is a spread fade only — it remains one of the best teams in the league outright, so lean to the moneyline rather than laying points with them.
How We Use These Trends
Season-long numbers are a starting point, not a finished play. A team covering the spread at a strong clip tells you the market has been slow to adjust to how it wins, but the matchup and the closing number still decide each night. With the WNBA's shorter schedule, these rankings carry more noise than a full baseball season, so we treat them as a filter and let the specific game drive the final picks and predictions.
For more WNBA picks and predictions, visit WNBA picks and predictions.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which WNBA team has the best against-the-spread trend in 2026?
The Golden State Valkyries lead the league against the spread at 15-9, returning 19.3 percent on flat 1-unit stakes. The Minnesota Lynx are second at 13-10 (plus 7.9 percent), with Chicago third, making them the most reliable cover teams this season.
Which WNBA teams should bettors fade?
The Atlanta Dream and Phoenix Mercury have been the worst spread teams, both at 9-15 (minus 28.4 percent), with the Las Vegas Aces close behind at 10-12 (minus 13.2 percent). All three have cost backers money laying the number.
Which teams are winning most often outright?
The Minnesota Lynx lead the league at 19-6, with the Golden State Valkyries at 18-7 and the Las Vegas Aces at 17-7. Minnesota and Las Vegas have been especially strong on the road, each at 10-2 away from home.
Why is there no ROI on the moneyline table?
Moneyline bets are priced at each team's actual odds, which swing from heavy favorite to long underdog game to game. A flat-stake ROI figure would be misleading because it assumes every bet costs the same, and moneyline bets do not. Win-loss records and home and away splits tell you what actually happened without pretending to a profit number the pricing cannot support.
Which teams hit the Over most often?
The Los Angeles Sparks top the Over board at 16-6 (plus 38.9 percent), with the Chicago Sky at 15-8 (plus 24.5 percent) and the Toronto Tempo at 14-8 (plus 21.5 percent). All three have played well above the pace the market expected.
Are there any reliable Under plays right now?
Only two. The Golden State Valkyries and Seattle Storm are the only teams with a profitable Under, at plus 3.4 and plus 2.8 percent. Every other club sits at break-even or worse, so this remains a league that leans Over.
How often are these trends updated?
These tables reflect the 2026 WNBA regular season through July 16 and are refreshed as new results come in. Because the WNBA plays fewer games than other leagues, each result moves the ROI more, so check back before locking in picks and predictions.
How is ROI calculated?
For the spread and total, every wager is treated as a flat 1-unit stake at standard pricing. Units is the running profit or loss across a team's games; ROI is that unit total divided by the number of bets, shown as a percentage. A positive ROI means backing that side all season would have shown a profit. The moneyline is excluded from this calculation because it is priced at variable odds.
Methodology
Spread and total results treat each game as a flat 1-unit wager at standard pricing — a cover for the spread, an Over or Under for the total. Units is the cumulative profit or loss; ROI is units divided by total bets. Moneyline is shown as a win-loss record only: because those bets are priced at each team's own odds rather than a standard number, a flat-stake ROI would not reflect what a bettor actually earns. Records cover the 2026 WNBA regular season across all 15 teams. Flat staking keeps every team on equal footing so a few heavy favorites or longshots cannot distort the spread and total rankings. WNBA samples are smaller than other leagues, so treat these trends as directional signals rather than settled edges.
21+. Please play responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Records reflect the 2026 WNBA regular season through July 16, 2026 and are subject to change.
Betting on the WNBA?
- Find our list of our favorite WNBA sportsbooks
- Claim your promos with the best WNBA sportsbook bonuses
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
