Atlanta Dream vs Connecticut Sun Picks and Prediction for Thursday, August 13, 2026
The Atlanta Dream visit the Connecticut Sun on Thursday at 7:00 PM ET at Mohegan Sun Arena. Atlanta is 20-12, tied with Indiana for first in the Eastern Conference, after beating Toronto 107-95 on Sunday. The Dream have won three of their last five and are 8-7 away from home. Connecticut is 8-23, seventh in the Eastern Conference and 11.5 games behind the leaders. The Sun snapped a four-game losing streak with Friday’s 75-72 win over Phoenix and are 5-10 at home. Atlanta is favored by 9.5 points, with the total set at 172.5. Cash in a winner with our free WNBA picks.
Atlanta Dream Bringing Plenty of Scoring Options
Atlanta averages 89.6 points per game while shooting 43.7% from the field and 31.3% from 3-point range. The Dream average 35.0 rebounds and 20.9 assists while committing 13.0 turnovers. Allisha Gray leads Atlanta with 18.9 points per game while shooting 45.9%. Rhyne Howard adds 17.4 points, 3.6 assists, and 2.4 steals, while Angel Reese averages 15.8 points and a team-high 11.9 rebounds. Jordin Canada supplies 11.5 points and 7.6 assists per game.
The Dream allow 86.0 points per game and rank fourth in the WNBA in scoring defense. Opponents are shooting 48.6% from the field and 36.7% from beyond the arc, but Atlanta forces 16.0 turnovers per game and averages 9.1 steals. The Dream have scored at least 96 points in three of their last five games, including 107 against Toronto. Atlanta also won the first meeting with Connecticut 91-75 on June 2.
Injuries: Indya Nivar (Out, Coach’s Decision), Te-Hina Paopao (Out, Leg).
Connecticut Sun Trying to Build on Phoenix Victory
Connecticut averages 79.7 points per game, the lowest mark in the WNBA, while shooting 43.4% from the field and 29.7% from 3-point range. Leila Lacan leads the available Sun players with 12.1 points and 4.4 assists per game while adding 1.9 steals. Olivia Nelson-Ododa contributes 9.7 points and a team-high 6.0 rebounds while shooting 57.2%. Diamond Miller adds 9.5 points, and Kennedy Burke contributes 8.4 points per game.
The Sun allow 86.8 points per game, sixth-best in the league, while opponents shoot 46.2% from the field and 35.1% from 3-point range. Connecticut averages 8.2 steals and 4.6 blocks but commits 14.1 turnovers per game. Scoring remains the bigger concern. The Sun produced only 63 points against Dallas and have scored fewer than 90 in four straight games. Connecticut’s 75-72 victory over Phoenix was its first win since July 17.
Injuries: Ashlon Jackson (Out, Coach’s Decision), Raegan Beers (Out, Concussion), Maria Kliundikova (Out for Season, Not Injury Related).
Key Player Matchup
Angel Reese vs Olivia Nelson-Ododa
Reese gives Atlanta a major advantage on the glass, averaging 11.9 rebounds, including 5.1 offensive boards, along with 15.8 points per game. Nelson-Ododa leads Connecticut with 6.0 rebounds and adds 9.7 points while shooting 57.2%. Reese’s work on the offensive glass can create extra possessions for a Dream team averaging nearly 10 more points than Connecticut. Nelson-Ododa needs to limit those second chances while providing interior scoring for a Sun offense that has struggled to produce points consistently.
Atlanta Dream vs Connecticut Sun Game Pick
- Atlanta Dream -9.5
Atlanta -9.5 is the pick despite Connecticut coming off a victory over Phoenix. The Dream average 89.6 points compared with the Sun’s 79.7 and have scored at least 96 in three of their last five games. Atlanta also owns a clear rebounding advantage and forces 16.0 turnovers per contest. Connecticut has dropped four of five and lost the first meeting with Atlanta by 16 points. With Gray, Howard, and Reese providing three proven scoring options, the Dream have enough offense to create a double-digit lead and cover the 9.5-point spread.
Atlanta Dream vs Connecticut Sun Over/Under Pick
- Under 172.5
The under 172.5 is the preferred play because Connecticut’s scoring numbers make a high combined total difficult to reach. The Sun average only 79.7 points and have scored 75 or fewer in three of their last five games. Atlanta allows 86.0 points per contest but held Connecticut to 75 in the first meeting. The Dream can score enough to win comfortably without this game reaching the required number. With Connecticut struggling from 3-point range at 29.7%, the under is the play Thursday.