Atlanta Dream vs Golden State Valkyries WNBA Finals Game 5 Picks and Predictions for Monday, October 26, 2026
The WNBA Finals are all square again, and Atlanta has to return to San Francisco after letting a chance to take control slip away. Golden State won Game 4 on Saturday, 67-62, setting up Monday's Game 5 at Chase Center. Tipoff is at 8:00 pm ET on USA Network and CNBC. The Dream finished the regular season 30-14, while the Valkyries went 32-12. Both teams have won twice in the series, with Golden State taking Games 1 and 4. The Valkyries are favored by 1.5 points, and the total is 149.5. Build your bankroll with our free WNBA picks.
Atlanta Dream Need More From Their Offense
Atlanta looked like it had figured Golden State out after winning Games 2 and 3. The Dream took Game 2 in San Francisco 79-65, then returned home and put up 97 points in a 26-point victory. Saturday was another story. Atlanta couldn't get much going early, fell behind by 16 and eventually lost 67-62. The Dream have scored 302 points across four Finals games, averaging 75.5. That's well below the 87.9 points per game they have recorded across their postseason run. Atlanta now faces another road game with the series tied.
Angel Reese has averaged 18.1 points and 10.1 rebounds in nine playoff appearances, but Game 4 was a rough night. She scored eight points, making just 16.7% of her shots. Rhyne Howard led Atlanta with 19 points and eight rebounds Saturday. Howard is averaging 16.4 points and 2.6 steals this postseason, while Jordin Canada has contributed 15.2 points and 8.1 assists. Allisha Gray is averaging 14.4 points through seven playoff games, although her hand injury leaves her availability uncertain for Monday.
Injuries: Allisha Gray is questionable. Matilde Villa and Brionna Jones are out.
Golden State Valkyries Have Their Defense Back
Golden State had a lot to fix after losing Game 3 by 26 points. The Valkyries went into Saturday knowing another defeat would leave them facing elimination. Instead, they jumped ahead early and held on for a 67-62 victory. Golden State also won Game 1 by a 68-64 score, meaning both its victories have come in low-scoring games. The Valkyries have averaged 67.8 points during this series, compared with 80.7 per game across their postseason. Their defense has been the difference when they've won.
Gabby Williams scored 17 points Saturday, adding three assists and three steals. She's averaging 20.8 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists across 10 postseason games. Tiffany Hayes has contributed 12.4 points per game, while Veronica Burton is putting up 8.9 points and 3.8 assists. Kiah Stokes was particularly important in Game 4, grabbing 16 rebounds and blocking three shots. She's averaging 10.2 rebounds and 2.6 blocks this postseason. Golden State also changed its starting lineup Saturday, bringing Hayes and Kaila Charles into the opening five.
Injuries: Iliana Rupert is out for the season.
Key To The Game
Atlanta needs Reese to finish better around the basket after Saturday's struggles. Stokes has made life difficult for her, while Williams gives Golden State another defensive threat. Gray's availability is also important for the Dream.
Atlanta Dream vs Golden State Valkyries Game Pick
- Golden State Valkyries -1.5
Golden State showed Saturday that it can slow Atlanta down, holding the Dream to 62 points and limiting Reese around the basket. Stokes has been excellent defensively, and Williams answered a difficult Game 3 with 17 points. Atlanta has already won once in San Francisco, but the Valkyries have momentum after Game 4. Golden State carries that defensive performance home and covers the 1.5-point spread in Game 5 on Monday.
Atlanta Dream vs Golden State Valkyries Over/Under Pick
- Under 149.5
Three of the four Finals games have finished below 149.5 points, including both Golden State victories. The Valkyries have scored only 68, 65, 71 and 67 in the series, and Atlanta managed just 62 on Saturday. Stokes has been protecting the basket, while Reese struggled badly in Game 4. Another physical matchup keeps scoring down, making the under 149.5 the pick for Monday night at Chase Center in San Francisco.