Connecticut Sun vs Chicago Sky Picks and Prediction for Thursday, July 30, 2026
The Connecticut Sun visit the Chicago Sky at Wintrust Arena in Chicago, Illinois, on Thursday, July 30, 2026, with tipoff scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET. WNBA League Pass and CW26 will provide television coverage. Connecticut enters as a +140 moneyline underdog, while Chicago is priced at -171. The Sun are getting 3.5 points at -110, with the Sky favored by 3.5 points at -110. The total is 171.5, with both the over and under priced at -110. Connecticut is 7-21 overall and 3-11 on the road, while Chicago is 9-18 overall and 5-7 at home. ESPN Analytics gives the Sky a 72.5% chance of winning, compared with 27.5% for the Sun. Be sure to check out our free WNBA Picks.
Connecticut Tries to Recreate Its Recent Offensive Success
Connecticut enters Thursday’s matchup with a 7-21 overall record and a 3-11 mark away from home. The Sun have split their last five games, winning twice and losing three times. They recently lost 92-84 at Washington after suffering a 123-88 defeat at Indiana. Those results followed a 72-63 loss at Phoenix, a 96-83 road win over Phoenix, and a 90-87 home victory over Portland.
The Sun average 80.1 points per game while allowing 87.3. They shoot 44% from the field and average 32.9 rebounds and 19.4 assists. Connecticut also produces 4.6 blocks and 8.3 steals per game. The Sun’s scoring average is 7.4 points lower than Chicago’s, but their defense allows 2.4 fewer points per game than the Sky.
Connecticut’s recent scoring variation could be the deciding factor in whether it covers the 3.5-point spread. The Sun scored 90 and 96 points in their two victories during the last five games but were held to 63 in one of their three losses. They have also surrendered at least 92 points in each of their last two contests. Connecticut has demonstrated that it can produce enough offense to win, but its 3-11 road record and negative scoring differential create concerns against a favored Chicago team.
Chicago Looks to Convert Close Games Into a Home Victory
Chicago is 9-18 overall and 5-7 at Wintrust Arena. The Sky have gone 2-3 across their last five games, with their three defeats coming by five points or fewer. Chicago recently lost 95-94 at New York and 93-91 at Atlanta. Those narrow defeats followed a 96-82 home victory over Los Angeles, a 95-90 home win over Seattle, and a 96-91 road loss to Dallas.
The Sky average 87.5 points and allow 89.7 points per game. Chicago shoots 44% from the field while averaging 33.1 rebounds, 21.2 assists, 5.0 blocks, and 6.9 steals. The Sky hold small statistical advantages over the Sun in rebounding, assists, and blocks, while Connecticut averages more steals. Both teams have the same 44% field-goal percentage.
Chicago’s most notable strength is its recent offensive consistency. The Sky have scored at least 91 points in each of their last five games, including 95 or more in four of those contests. They won both home games during that stretch and averaged 95.5 points in those victories. Although Chicago has lost three of its last five, each defeat was competitive, with margins of one, two, and five points. That pattern supports the possibility of another close game while also explaining why Chicago is favored at home.
Connecticut Sun vs Chicago Sky Picks and Prediction
Connecticut Sun vs Chicago Sky Pick
- Pick: Chicago Sky -3.5
Chicago is the preferred side based on its 9-18 overall record, 5-7 home mark, and 72.5% matchup predictor probability. The Sky have the better overall and home records, while Connecticut has won only three of its 14 road games. Chicago also averages 7.4 more points per game and has scored at least 91 points in five consecutive contests. Although the Sky’s last three losses were all decided by five points or fewer, their two recent home games resulted in victories by five and 14 points. I expect Chicago’s recent scoring consistency to create enough separation to cover the 3.5-point spread.
Connecticut Sun vs Chicago Sky Total Pick
- Pick: Over 171.5
I am taking the over based on the recent scoring information provided. Chicago’s last five games produced combined totals of 189, 184, 178, 185, and 187 points, with all five finishing above Thursday’s 171.5-point line. Connecticut’s last two games reached 176 and 211 combined points, while its two recent victories produced totals of 179 and 177. The Sun average 80.1 points, and the Sky average 87.5, but both teams allow more points than they score. Chicago’s recent run of five consecutive games with at least 91 points gives the over a reasonable path.
Final Score Prediction: Chicago Sky 92 – Connecticut Sun 84