Connecticut Sun vs Indiana Fever Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, July 22, 2026

The Connecticut Sun travel to face the Indiana Fever at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana, on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET, with television coverage available on USA Network and WTHR Channel 13. Indiana enters as a 9.5-point home favorite and is listed at -500 on the moneyline, while Connecticut is priced at +380. The total is set at 176.5 points. ESPN Analytics gives Indiana an 87.7% chance of winning, compared with 12.3% for Connecticut. Before wagering on Wednesday’s matchup, be sure to check out our free WNBA Picks.

Connecticut Faces a Demanding Road Assignment

Connecticut enters Wednesday night with a 7-19 overall record and a 3-9 mark away from home. The Sun are 2-3 over their last five games after recently losing to Phoenix 72-63. Connecticut defeated that same Phoenix team 96-83 two days earlier and also recently won over Portland 90-87. The Sun’s other two defeats during this stretch came against Golden State 79-64 and Minnesota 86-80. Connecticut scored 90 or more points in both victories but was held to 64 points or fewer in two of its three losses.

The Sun average 79.7 points per game while allowing 85.7 points, leaving them with a negative scoring differential of six points. Connecticut shoots 44% from the field and averages 33.3 rebounds and 19.2 assists per contest. The Sun also produce 4.5 blocks and 8.4 steals per game. Connecticut trails Indiana by 14.7 points per game offensively and shoots three percentage points worse from the field. However, the Sun average more blocks and nearly two additional steals per game.

Connecticut’s best chance of remaining competitive may come through its defensive activity. The Sun hold advantages in both blocks and steals, and they have held two of their last five opponents below 80 points. Their biggest concern is an offense that has been inconsistent throughout the recent five-game sample. Connecticut has scored as many as 96 points and as few as 63 during that stretch. The Sun will need one of their stronger offensive performances to keep pace with an Indiana team averaging more than 94 points per game.

Indiana Looks to Extend Its Home Winning Streak

Indiana comes into this matchup with a 16-10 overall record and a 10-5 record at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. The Fever have won four of their last five games and enter Wednesday on a two-game winning streak. Indiana recently won over New York 108-88 after defeating Seattle 110-107. The Fever also recorded road victories over Las Vegas 109-75 and Phoenix 92-89, while their only loss during this stretch was an 88-75 home defeat against Golden State.

The Fever average 94.4 points per game while surrendering 89.7 points, producing a positive average scoring margin of 4.7 points. Indiana shoots 47% from the field and averages 33.8 rebounds and 20.4 assists. The Fever also generate 3.8 blocks and 6.5 steals per contest. Indiana owns the advantage over Connecticut in scoring, field-goal percentage, rebounding, and assists. The Sun allow four fewer points per game, but the Fever’s offensive advantage is substantial.

Indiana’s clearest strength is its ability to score at a consistently high level. The Fever have reached at least 92 points in four of their last five games, including three performances of 108 points or more. Indiana has scored 34 more points than Connecticut across the teams’ combined last two games, and its three-percentage-point shooting advantage further supports its offensive edge. The defensive numbers are less convincing, but the Fever have repeatedly shown that they can overcome defensive struggles with their scoring production.

Connecticut Sun vs Indiana Fever Picks and Prediction

Connecticut Sun vs Indiana Fever Pick

• Pick: Indiana Fever -9.5

I am laying the 9.5 points with Indiana. The Fever have the better overall record, a 10-5 home mark, and four victories across their last five games. Indiana also averages 14.7 more points per contest and shoots three percentage points better from the field. Connecticut has generated more defensive plays through blocks and steals, but the Sun have struggled to produce reliable offense and enter with a 3-9 road record. With ESPN Analytics assigning Indiana an 87.7% winning probability, the Fever’s offensive advantages should be enough to create a double-digit home victory.

Connecticut Sun vs Indiana Fever Total Pick

• Pick: Over 176.5

I am taking the over 176.5. Indiana’s last five games have produced combined totals of 196, 217, 163, 184, and 181 points, with four surpassing Wednesday’s posted number. The Fever have scored at least 108 points in three of their last four victories, and Connecticut has reached 90 points in both of its recent wins. Although the Sun scored only 63 in their latest game, Indiana’s 94.4-point scoring average creates a strong foundation for the over. The Fever’s 89.7 points-against average also gives Connecticut an opportunity to contribute enough scoring to push the game beyond 176 points.

Final Score Prediction: Indiana Fever 97 – Connecticut Sun 82