Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction for Friday, July 17, 2026
Use Code SSWC The Connecticut Sun visit the Phoenix Mercury at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona, on Friday, July 17, 2026, with tipoff scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET. The game will be televised on WNBA League Pass and ION. Connecticut is a +180 moneyline underdog, while Phoenix is listed at -218. The Mercury are favored by 5.5 points, and the total is set at 163.5. Connecticut enters the game at 6-18 overall and 2-8 on the road, while Phoenix is 8-17 overall and 3-8 at home. ESPN Analytics gives the Sun a 20.9% chance to win and the Mercury a 79.0% chance. Be sure to check out our free WNBA Picks.
Connecticut Tries to Build on a Close Victory
Connecticut enters Friday’s contest with a 6-18 overall record and a 2-8 mark away from home. The Sun have won two of their last five games, recently earning a 90-87 victory over Portland and a 90-89 road win over Minnesota. Their three losses during the stretch came against Golden State, Minnesota, and Dallas. Connecticut lost 79-64 to Golden State, 86-80 to Minnesota, and 86-83 to Dallas.
The Sun average 79.7 points per game while allowing 86.4 points. Connecticut is shooting 43% from the field and averaging 33.2 rebounds and 19.2 assists. The Sun also produce 4.5 blocks and 8.6 steals per contest. Connecticut holds statistical advantages over Phoenix in rebounding, blocks, and steals, although the Sun trail the Mercury in scoring, field-goal percentage, and assists.
Connecticut’s defensive activity is its clearest strength based on the supplied statistics. The Sun average 1.3 more blocks and 1.2 more steals per game than Phoenix. Connecticut also averages 1.6 more rebounds. The concern is the team’s scoring margin, as the Sun allow 6.7 more points per game than they score. However, Connecticut has won two of its last four games and scored 90 points in both victories.
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Phoenix Looks to Stop Its Recent Slide
Phoenix comes into the matchup with an 8-17 overall record and a 3-8 record at Mortgage Matchup Center. The Mercury have lost four consecutive games and have won only once in their last five appearances. Phoenix recently lost 104-100 at Minnesota, 106-58 at Las Vegas, 92-89 at home against Indiana, and 77-66 at home against Chicago. Its lone victory during the five-game stretch was a 90-67 home win over Seattle.
The Mercury average 83.3 points per game and allow 87.3 points. Phoenix is shooting 44% from the field while averaging 31.6 rebounds, 19.3 assists, 3.2 blocks, and 7.4 steals. The Mercury average 3.6 more points per game than Connecticut and have a one-percentage-point advantage in field-goal shooting. The teams are separated by only 0.1 assists per contest.
Phoenix’s primary strength in this matchup is its scoring advantage. The Mercury average more points than the Sun while also holding the slightly better shooting percentage. Phoenix scored 100 points in its most recent game and reached at least 89 points in three of its last five contests. The Mercury’s weakness has been preventing points, as they have allowed 87.3 per game and surrendered at least 92 in three of their last four losses.
Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction
Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Pick
- Pick: Phoenix Mercury -5.5
Phoenix is my pick to cover the 5.5-point spread. The Mercury have the better overall record and are given a decisive 79.0% chance to win by the matchup predictor. Phoenix also averages more points, shoots a higher percentage from the field, and owns the slightly better assists average. Connecticut has produced two close victories within its last four games, but its 2-8 road record presents a difficult comparison with the available numbers. Despite Phoenix’s four-game losing streak, the Mercury’s statistical advantages and strong matchup predictor percentage make them the selection at home.
Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Total Pick
- Pick: Over 163.5
I am taking the over 163.5. Connecticut and Phoenix combine to average exactly 163.0 points per game, placing their offensive averages just one-half point below the listed total. Their defensive averages are considerably higher, with the Sun allowing 86.4 and the Mercury surrendering 87.3 per game. Connecticut’s latest victory produced 177 combined points, while Phoenix’s most recent loss produced 204. The Sun have scored 90 points twice in their last four games, and the Mercury have reached at least 89 in three of their last five, giving the over a reasonable path.
Final Score Prediction
Final Score Prediction: Phoenix Mercury 86 – Connecticut Sun 78
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