Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction for Sunday, July 19, 2026
Use Code SSWC The Connecticut Sun visit the Phoenix Mercury at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona, on Sunday, July 19, 2026. The game is scheduled to begin at 7:00 p.m. ET, with ESPN and Disney+ providing the coverage. Connecticut enters with a 7-18 overall record and a 3-8 road mark, while Phoenix is 8-18 overall and 3-9 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Before making your selections for Sunday’s matchup, be sure to check out our free WNBA Picks.
Connecticut Carries Momentum into the Rematch
The Sun enter Sunday with a 7-18 overall record and a 3-8 record away from home. Connecticut has won three of its last five games, including a recent 96-83 road victory over Phoenix. The Sun also recently defeated Portland 90-87 and Minnesota 90-89. Their two losses during the five-game stretch were a 79-64 result against Golden State and an 86-80 defeat against Minnesota. Connecticut has reached 90 points in each of its three recent victories.
Connecticut averages 80.4 points per game while allowing 86.2 points. The Sun shoot 44% from the field and average 33.2 rebounds, 19.4 assists, 4.6 blocks, and 8.5 steals per contest. Connecticut scores 2.9 fewer points per game than Phoenix but allows 1.4 fewer. The Sun also hold advantages in rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals.
Connecticut’s most noticeable strength in the statistical comparison is its defensive activity. The Sun average 1.5 more blocks and 1.2 more steals than Phoenix. Connecticut also holds a 1.8-rebound advantage. Those differences were accompanied by a productive offensive performance in the recent matchup, when the Sun scored 96 points and won by 13 on the road.
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Phoenix Attempts to End Its Five-Game Losing Streak
The Mercury enter the contest at 8-18 overall with a 3-9 record at Mortgage Matchup Center. Phoenix has lost each of its last five games, recently falling 96-83 to Connecticut. The Mercury also recently suffered losses of 104-100 against Minnesota, 106-58 against Las Vegas, 92-89 against Indiana, and 77-66 against Chicago. Phoenix has allowed at least 92 points in four consecutive games.
Phoenix averages 83.3 points per contest while allowing 87.6. The Mercury shoot 44% from the field and produce 31.4 rebounds, 19.2 assists, 3.1 blocks, and 7.3 steals per game. Phoenix holds a 2.9-point advantage in scoring, and both teams have the same field-goal percentage. However, the Mercury trail Connecticut in every other provided team category.
Phoenix’s primary weakness is its recent defense. The Mercury have allowed 398 total points across their last four games, including at least 96 points three times. Their season average of 87.6 points allowed is also higher than Connecticut’s figure. Phoenix has shown that it can produce offensively, scoring 100 and 89 in two recent losses, but it has also been held to 66 or fewer twice during the five-game slide.
Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction
Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Pick
- Pick: Connecticut Sun Moneyline
I am taking Connecticut on the moneyline because the Sun have won three of their last five games and recently defeated Phoenix 96-83 at Mortgage Matchup Center. Connecticut also holds statistical advantages in scoring defense, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals. Phoenix has the slightly better overall record and averages more points, but the Mercury have lost five consecutive games and allowed at least 92 points in four straight. The Sun’s recent form and their success in the latest matchup make them my preferred side.
Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Total Pick
- Pick: Over 165.5
Take the over if the total is set at 165.5. I am backing the over because the teams combined for 179 points in their recent meeting. Connecticut has scored 90 or more in each of its last three victories, while Phoenix has allowed at least 92 in four consecutive games. Four of the Sun’s last five contests finished above 165.5, as did three of the Mercury’s last five. Phoenix’s scoring has been inconsistent, but its 87.6 points allowed per game and recent defensive results give the over enough support.
Final Score Prediction: Connecticut Sun 91 – Phoenix Mercury 85
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