Connecticut Sun vs Washington Mystics Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, July 28, 2026
The Connecticut Sun visit the Washington Mystics at CareFirst Arena in Washington, DC, on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET, with coverage available through WNBA League Pass and MNMT. Washington enters as a 5.5-point favorite, with the Mystics listed at -213 on the moneyline and Connecticut priced at +173. The total is set at 156.5 points. Connecticut comes into the matchup at 7-20 overall and 3-10 on the road, while Washington stands at 14-12 overall and 6-6 at home. ESPN Analytics gives the Mystics a 70.1% chance to win, compared with 29.9% for the Sun. Before placing any wagers on Tuesday’s schedule, be sure to check out our free WNBA Picks.
Connecticut Searches for More Road Consistency
Connecticut enters Tuesday’s game with a 7-20 overall record and a 3-10 mark away from home. The Sun have produced mixed results across their last five games, winning twice and losing three times. They recently lost to Indiana 123-88 and previously fell to Phoenix 72-63. Before those defeats, Connecticut won over Phoenix 96-83 and Portland 90-87. The five-game stretch began with a 79-64 loss to Golden State.
The Sun average 80.0 points per game while allowing 87.1 points. They shoot 44% from the field and average 33.1 rebounds, 19.2 assists, 4.5 blocks, and 8.4 steals per contest. Connecticut matches Washington’s 44% field-goal percentage and has a narrow advantage in blocks and a more substantial advantage in steals. However, the Sun trail the Mystics in scoring, rebounding, and assists.
Connecticut’s most noticeable weakness in the supplied numbers is its scoring margin. The Sun are being outscored by an average of 7.1 points per game, which is significant against a Washington team favored by 5.5 points. Connecticut has nevertheless shown enough offensive potential to remain competitive when its scoring rises. The Sun scored at least 90 points in both victories during their last five games, including 96 in their road win over Phoenix. Their challenge will be avoiding another defensive result resembling the 123 points surrendered in their most recent contest.
Washington Brings the Stronger Overall Profile Home
Washington returns to CareFirst Arena with a 14-12 overall record and a 6-6 home record. The Mystics have won three of their last five games, including a recent 100-99 victory over Las Vegas and a 90-82 road win over Golden State. Washington previously lost to Golden State 74-69 and Portland 75-56 before earning a 79-62 victory over Toronto. Those results show three wins by margins of one, eight, and 17 points.
The Mystics average 80.8 points while allowing 83.1 points per game. Washington shoots 44% from the field and averages 37.0 rebounds, 19.3 assists, 3.6 blocks, and 5.4 steals. The Mystics hold a 3.9-rebound advantage over Connecticut and a slight 0.1-assist edge. Connecticut averages more blocks and steals, but Washington has the better scoring defense by four points per game.
Washington’s strongest statistical advantage is its overall balance compared with Connecticut. The Mystics score slightly more points and allow four fewer points per contest, creating a scoring-margin difference that supports their position as the favorite. Washington also owns the superior overall record and has won three of its last five, while Connecticut has lost three of five. The Mystics’ recent 100-point performance also shows that their offense can move beyond its 80.8-point season average when the game opens up.
Connecticut Sun vs Washington Mystics Picks and Prediction
Connecticut Sun vs Washington Mystics Pick
- Pick: Washington Mystics -5.5
Washington is the preferred side at -5.5. The Mystics have the better overall record, the stronger recent record, and the higher matchup-predictor percentage. They also own advantages in scoring, points allowed, rebounds, and assists. Connecticut has won only three of its 13 road games, while Washington is 6-6 at CareFirst Arena. The Sun’s average scoring deficit of 7.1 points is also larger than Tuesday’s spread. Washington has not dominated every recent game, but its supplied statistical profile is strong enough to justify laying the points.
Connecticut Sun vs Washington Mystics Total Pick
- Pick: Over 156.5
I am taking the over 156.5 because the listed total is lower than the combined scoring averages of 160.8 points. Connecticut’s games also combine for an average of 167.1 points when its scoring and points allowed are added, while Washington’s corresponding figures combine for 163.9. Four of Connecticut’s last five games finished with at least 159 total points, and Washington’s two most recent games produced 199 and 172 points. Those numbers give the over enough statistical support at 156.5.
Final Score Prediction: Washington Mystics 84 – Connecticut Sun 76