Connecticut Sun vs Washington Mystics Picks and Prediction for Tuesday September 22 2026

The Connecticut Sun visit the Washington Mystics at CareFirst Arena in Washington, DC, on Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET with coverage on WNBA League Pass and NBC Sports BO. Connecticut enters at 10-32 overall and just 3-18 on the road, while Washington is 26-16 overall and 13-7 at home. The Sun have lost five consecutive games, while the Mystics have won two straight and four of their last five. Washington also holds a 2-1 advantage in the season series. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks for more WNBA predictions throughout the season.

Connecticut Searching for Answers After Five Straight Losses

Connecticut enters Tuesday's matchup at 10-32 and at the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. The Sun's current five-game losing streak has included losses of 101-89, 103-59, 97-71, 111-91 and 89-64. Connecticut has therefore allowed at least 89 points in every game during the streak and has surrendered 501 total points, an average of 100.2 per game. The Sun have scored 374 points during that same stretch, creating an enormous 127-point differential over only five games.

The season-long numbers tell a similar story. Connecticut averages 78.7 points while allowing 88.5 points per game, producing a negative scoring differential of 9.8 points. The Sun shoot 42% from the field, average 32.3 rebounds and distribute 19.0 assists per game. They do have some defensive activity with averages of 8.0 steals and 4.5 blocks, but those numbers have not translated into consistent stops.

Connecticut's road performance creates another significant concern. The Sun are only 3-18 away from home, and their recent defensive problems have been especially damaging because the offense has not consistently produced enough points to compensate. Availability is another issue entering Tuesday, with multiple players listed as out. Against a Washington team playing well and carrying a winning home record, Connecticut needs a dramatic defensive improvement to make this competitive.

Washington Building Momentum at the Right Time

Washington comes into this game at 26-16 overall and tied with New York at 26-16 in the Eastern Conference standings. The Mystics have won two consecutive games, defeating Chicago 110-80 and Indiana 93-77. Washington is 4-1 across its last five games, with the only defeat coming by six points on the road. The Mystics have scored 459 points over those five contests while allowing 402, an average scoring margin of +11.4 points per game.

Washington has also produced considerably stronger season-long numbers than Connecticut. The Mystics average 83.7 points per game while allowing 82.8, giving them a positive scoring differential. Washington shoots 45% from the field compared with Connecticut's 42% and holds a major 37.6-to-32.3 advantage in rebounds per game. The Mystics also average 19.9 assists, 3.8 blocks and 5.5 steals.

Home court strengthens Washington's position. The Mystics are 13-7 at CareFirst Arena, while Connecticut has won only three of 21 road games. Washington also leads the season series 2-1. The Mystics won the first meeting 88-81, Connecticut responded with a 68-57 victory, and Washington dominated the most recent matchup 92-84. Although Washington has an important absence of its own, Connecticut's more extensive availability issues combine with the enormous recent difference in form to give the Mystics a substantial matchup advantage.

Connecticut Sun vs Washington Mystics Picks and Prediction

Pick: Washington Mystics -9.5 or Better

Without a confirmed spread available, Washington becomes attractive if the market opens at -9.5 or better. The Mystics are 16 games better in the standings, own a 13-7 home record compared with Connecticut's 3-18 road mark and enter on a two-game winning streak while the Sun have dropped five straight. Most concerning for Connecticut is the scale of those recent defeats: the Sun have been outscored by 127 points over their last five games, losing four of the five by double digits. Washington, meanwhile, has won its last two by 30 and 16 points. The combination of recent form, home-road splits, rebounding and shooting efficiency gives Washington enough separation to lay a moderate double-digit number.

Pick: Over 166.5 or Lower

Connecticut's defensive performance pushes this matchup toward the over despite its inconsistent offense. The Sun allow 88.5 points per game for the season and have surrendered an average of 100.2 over their five-game losing streak. Washington has scored 93 and 110 in its last two and averages 83.7 for the season. Connecticut also reached 89 and 91 points in two of its recent losses, demonstrating that its defensive struggles can produce high totals even without consistently elite offensive production. With the Sun's last five games producing combined totals of 190, 162, 168, 202 and 153 points, there is enough scoring volatility to target the over if the market comes in at 166.5 or lower.

Final Picks: Washington Mystics -9.5 or Better and Over 166.5 or Lower