Dallas Wings vs Golden State Valkyries Picks and Prediction for Sunday September 27 2026

The Dallas Wings visit the Golden State Valkyries at Chase Center in San Francisco, California, on Sunday, September 27, 2026, for Game 1 of their first-round WNBA playoff series. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00 PM ET with coverage on USA Network and CNBC. Dallas finished the regular season 27-17 overall and 11-11 on the road, while Golden State went 32-12 overall and an impressive 17-5 at home. The Valkyries finished second in the Western Conference, just one game behind Minnesota, while Dallas finished fourth at 27-17. Golden State is currently favored by 7.5 points, with the total sitting at 154.5 after opening at 155.5. Keep up with all the WNBA playoff action with our free WNBA picks.

Wings Bring the Superior Offensive Numbers

Dallas enters the playoffs with one of the most interesting offensive profiles in this first-round slate. The Wings averaged 89.4 points per game while shooting 47% from the field. Dallas also produced 34.6 rebounds, 22.3 assists, 6.8 steals and 4.2 blocks per game. Compared with Golden State, the Wings hold advantages in scoring, field-goal percentage, rebounds, assists and blocks.

Dallas also finished the regular season in strong form, winning four of its final five games. The Wings closed with a 103-91 road victory over Seattle after suffering a narrow 87-86 road loss to Phoenix. Before that defeat, Dallas recorded consecutive home victories of 87-82, 97-77 and 97-71. The Wings scored at least 86 points in all five games and averaged 94.0 points during that stretch.

The question is whether Dallas can maintain that offensive efficiency against a Golden State team that has been excellent at controlling games defensively. The Wings also enter Game 1 with multiple rotation absences, potentially creating additional pressure on their available lineup. Dallas has the offensive numbers to keep this competitive, but playing at Chase Center presents a much more difficult challenge than its recent schedule.

Valkyries Have Been Extremely Difficult to Beat at Home

Golden State finished the regular season 32-12 overall and 17-5 at Chase Center. The Valkyries averaged 82.2 points per game while shooting 42% from the field, with 33.3 rebounds, 19.3 assists, 7.8 steals and 4.0 blocks per contest. Those offensive statistics are considerably lower than Dallas' numbers, but Golden State finished five games better in the standings and lost only five times at home.

The Valkyries went 4-1 across their final five games. Golden State closed with a 76-75 road victory over Los Angeles after losing 90-82 in overtime at Portland. Before that defeat, the Valkyries recorded victories of 70-57 over Seattle, 82-66 over Portland and 86-69 at Portland. Golden State held three of those five opponents below 70 points.

That contrast defines the Game 1 matchup. Dallas wants its offensive efficiency to determine the game, while Golden State has demonstrated an ability to win lower-scoring contests. The Valkyries also average 7.8 steals per game, one more than Dallas, providing an avenue to disrupt possessions and prevent the Wings from consistently operating their offense in the half court. Golden State's 17-5 home record makes that defensive profile even more important.

Dallas Wings vs Golden State Valkyries Picks and Prediction

Pick: Dallas Wings +7.5

Golden State deserves to be favored at Chase Center, but 7.5 points is enough to move the betting value toward Dallas. The Wings finished 27-17, won four of their final five games and averaged 94.0 points over that stretch. Dallas also owns substantial season-long offensive advantages, averaging 89.4 points on 47% shooting compared with Golden State's 82.2 points on 42%. The Valkyries' 17-5 home record and defensive performance make them difficult to oppose outright, but Dallas does not need to win to cash this ticket. With the Wings holding advantages in scoring, shooting, rebounding and assists, taking more than three possessions with Dallas is preferable to laying 7.5 with Golden State.

Pick: Under 154.5

The total requires balancing Dallas' excellent offense against Golden State's ability to dictate lower-scoring games. The Valkyries held three of their final five opponents below 70 points and enter the postseason with a style that has repeatedly produced controlled games. Their last five regulation results produced combined scores of 151, 127, 148 and 155, with the 172-point result against Portland requiring overtime. Dallas has been scoring at a much higher rate, but Game 1 at Chase Center should give Golden State an opportunity to impose its preferred defensive style. At 154.5, the number is low, but Golden State's recent results provide enough evidence to make the under the preferred position.

Final Picks: Dallas Wings +7.5 and Under 154.5