Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction for Monday September 21 2026

The Dallas Wings visit the Phoenix Mercury at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona, on Monday, September 21, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00 PM ET with coverage on USA Network and AZ Family Sports Network. Dallas enters at 26-16 overall and 10-10 on the road, while Phoenix is 15-27 overall and 6-14 at home. The Wings have won six consecutive games and have already defeated Phoenix twice this season, including an 87-82 victory on September 19. Dallas also won the first meeting 85-70. ESPN's matchup predictor gives the Wings a 60.1% chance compared with 39.9% for Phoenix. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks for more WNBA predictions throughout the season.

Dallas Continues to Build Momentum

Dallas comes into Monday as one of the hottest teams in the league with six consecutive victories. The Wings have won each of the five games listed in their recent results, beating Phoenix 87-82, Los Angeles 97-77, Connecticut 97-71, Portland 96-78 and Seattle 92-70. Dallas has scored 469 points while allowing only 378 over those five games, producing averages of 93.8 points scored and 75.6 allowed. That is an outstanding average scoring margin of +18.2 points during the five-game stretch.

The season-long numbers also favor Dallas. The Wings average 89.1 points while allowing 85.1 per game, giving them a +4.0 scoring differential. They shoot 47% from the field and average 34.5 rebounds, 22.0 assists, 4.2 blocks and 6.9 steals. Compared with Phoenix, Dallas holds advantages in scoring, points allowed, field-goal percentage, rebounding, assists and blocks. Phoenix's only advantage among the supplied team statistics is steals.

Dallas has also demonstrated that it can control this particular matchup. The Wings are 2-0 against Phoenix this season, winning the first meeting by 15 points before taking the rematch by five. Monday represents a quick turnaround from Saturday's meeting, but Dallas has consistently been the stronger team statistically and enters with considerably better recent form. The biggest concern is location: Dallas is only 10-10 away from home, although Phoenix's 6-14 home record limits the strength of that counterargument.

Phoenix Tries to Reverse the Season Series

Phoenix enters at 15-27 and has lost three of its last five games. The Mercury fell 87-82 at Dallas in their most recent game after beating Portland 94-91 and Toronto 101-69. Before those victories, Phoenix lost consecutive games to Washington by scores of 80-73 and 94-84. The Mercury have therefore scored 434 points and allowed 421 over their last five, averaging 86.8 points scored and 84.2 points allowed.

For the season, Phoenix averages 84.4 points while surrendering 87.3 per game, leaving the Mercury with a -2.9 scoring differential. They shoot 44% from the field while averaging 31.6 rebounds, 20.2 assists, 3.4 blocks and 7.4 steals. Those numbers leave Phoenix behind Dallas in most of the major team categories, particularly shooting efficiency and rebounding. The Wings' three-point advantage in field-goal percentage is significant when combined with their 2.9-rebound advantage per game.

Availability is another factor worth monitoring for Phoenix, with the supplied injury information showing multiple absences. Dallas also has unavailable players, so neither team enters completely unaffected. However, Phoenix has struggled at home throughout the season at 6-14, and the Mercury now face an opponent that has already demonstrated twice that it can exploit this matchup. Phoenix needs its recent offensive improvement to continue if it is going to prevent Dallas from completing the season-series sweep.

Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction

Pick: Dallas Wings -3.5 or Better

With no confirmed betting spread supplied, Dallas -3.5 or better is the target for the side. The Wings have won six straight, are 5-0 across the five results supplied and have outscored those five opponents by 91 points. Dallas also leads Phoenix in scoring, scoring defense, field-goal percentage, rebounding, assists and blocks. Most importantly, the Wings are already 2-0 in this matchup, winning by 15 and five points. Dallas being only 10-10 on the road creates some risk, but Phoenix's 6-14 home record does little to offset the Wings' substantial statistical and recent-form advantages.

Pick: Under 177.5 or Higher

The Under 177.5 or higher is the preferred total. Dallas has been scoring efficiently, but its defense has been just as important during the winning streak, allowing only 75.6 points per game across the five results supplied. The first two meetings between these teams finished with 155 and 169 combined points, both comfortably below this target. Phoenix's five most recent games have averaged 171.0 combined points, while Dallas's have averaged 169.4. With Dallas having already held Phoenix to 70 and 82 points this season, a number in the upper 170s provides enough room to back another Under.

Final Picks: Dallas Wings -3.5 or Better and Under 177.5 or Higher