Golden State Valkyries vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, July 29, 2026
The Golden State Valkyries visit the Phoenix Mercury at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona, on Wednesday, July 29, 2026. The game is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET, with television coverage available on USA Network, CNBC, KPIX+, and two additional outlets. Golden State enters at 19-8 overall and 8-4 on the road, while Phoenix is 10-18 overall and 4-9 at home. ESPN Analytics gives Phoenix a 54.6% chance of winning compared with 45.4% for Golden State. However, Golden State is a 5.5-point favorite at -110 and is listed at -225 on the moneyline, while Phoenix is +5.5 at -110 and +182 on the moneyline. The total is set at 155.5, with the over priced at -111 and the under at -109. Be sure to check out our free WNBA Picks.
Golden State Takes Its Defensive Success on the Road
Golden State enters Wednesday with a 19-8 overall record and an 8-4 mark away from home. The Valkyries have won four of their last five games, although they recently lost 90-82 to Washington. Before that defeat, Golden State earned a 74-69 win over Washington and recorded road victories of 88-75 over Indiana, 79-64 over Connecticut, and 83-75 over Toronto. The Valkyries have therefore won each of their last three supplied road games while holding every opponent in that stretch to 75 points or fewer.
The Valkyries average 81.9 points per game while allowing only 76.4 points, giving them a positive scoring difference of 5.5 points per contest. Golden State shoots 42% from the field and averages 32.2 rebounds and 18.3 assists. The Valkyries also average 4.2 blocks and 7.6 steals per game. Their scoring average is slightly below Phoenix’s number, but their defensive statistics provide Golden State with the most substantial team advantage in this matchup.
Golden State’s primary strength is its ability to control opponents on the defensive end. The Valkyries allow 10.1 fewer points per game than the Mercury and average one additional block. Golden State surrendered fewer than 70 points in two of its last five games and limited four of those five opponents to no more than 75 points. The 90 points allowed in the most recent loss represented a sharp change from the previous four performances, but the broader supplied numbers still portray Golden State as the stronger defensive team.
Phoenix Attempts to Build on Consecutive Victories
Phoenix enters this contest at 10-18 overall with a 4-9 record at Mortgage Matchup Center. The Mercury have won their last two games, recently defeating Los Angeles 86-82 after earning a 72-63 home victory over Connecticut. Those results followed three consecutive losses: a 96-83 home defeat against Connecticut, a 104-100 road loss to Minnesota, and a 106-58 road setback against Las Vegas. Phoenix has split its two most recent home games and has won two of the five games in the supplied stretch.
The Mercury average 83 points per game while allowing 86.5 points, producing a negative scoring difference of 3.5 points per contest. Phoenix shoots 44% from the field and averages 31.5 rebounds and 19.5 assists. The Mercury also record 3.2 blocks and 7.5 steals per game. Phoenix holds advantages over Golden State in scoring, field-goal percentage, and assists, while the teams are separated by only one-tenth of a steal per contest.
Phoenix’s greatest strength is its offensive efficiency, as its 44% shooting percentage is two points higher than Golden State’s mark. The Mercury also average 1.1 more points and 1.2 more assists per game. Their concern is a defense allowing 86.5 points per contest, especially against a Golden State team with a 19-8 record. Phoenix has shown recent defensive improvement by holding Connecticut to 63 points and Los Angeles to 82, but the Mercury surrendered at least 96 points in each of the three games immediately preceding those victories.
Golden State Valkyries vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction
Golden State Valkyries vs Phoenix Mercury Pick
- Pick: Golden State Valkyries -5.5
Golden State is the selection because its 19-8 overall record and 8-4 road mark are considerably stronger than Phoenix’s 10-18 overall record and 4-9 home record. The Valkyries have won four of their last five games and carry a positive scoring difference of 5.5 points, which matches the listed spread. Phoenix has won two straight and receives the higher probability from ESPN Analytics, but the Mercury are being outscored by 3.5 points per game. Golden State’s 10.1-point advantage in points allowed provides the strongest statistical reason to lay the 5.5 points with the visitor.
Golden State Valkyries vs Phoenix Mercury Total Pick
- Pick: Under 155.5
I am taking the under 155.5 because Golden State has held four of its last five opponents to 75 points or fewer. Three games during that stretch finished with 158 combined points or fewer, including totals of 143 and 163 in the two meetings with Washington, 143 against Connecticut, and 158 against Toronto. Phoenix’s last five results have varied considerably, but its recent 72-63 victory finished with only 135 combined points. Golden State’s average of 76.4 points allowed and its recent run of controlled defensive performances support a lower-scoring prediction, although the relatively modest total leaves little room for either offense to exceed its season average.
Final Score Prediction: Golden State Valkyries 81 – Phoenix Mercury 73