Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces Picks and Prediction for Sunday, July 5, 2026
Use Code SSWC The Indiana Fever travel to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, to take on the Las Vegas Aces on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET, with coverage on ESPN and Disney+. Indiana enters at 11-8 overall and 3-4 on the road, while Las Vegas comes in at 15-5 overall and 6-3 at home. The Aces are listed at -238 on the moneyline, while the Fever are +195. Las Vegas is favored by 6.5 points, and the total is set at 183.5. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks.
Indiana Looks to Make Its Road Form Travel
The Fever enter this matchup with an 11-8 overall record and a 3-4 mark away from home. Indiana recently won over Los Angeles, recently lost to Phoenix, recently won over Phoenix, and recently lost to Atlanta twice across its last five games. That gives the Fever two wins in their last five contests entering this road matchup.
Indiana is averaging 93.9 points per game while allowing 90.0 points per game. The Fever are shooting 47 percent from the field and averaging 34.3 rebounds, 21.2 assists, 4.1 blocks, and 6.1 steals per game.
The clear strength for Indiana is scoring. The Fever average more points per game than Las Vegas, and their 47 percent field goal mark gives them enough offensive efficiency to stay dangerous. The weakness is on the defensive end, where allowing 90.0 points per game creates pressure to keep scoring at a high level.
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Las Vegas Brings the Stronger Overall Profile
The Aces come into Sunday with a 15-5 overall record and a 6-3 home record. Las Vegas recently won over Chicago in overtime, recently lost to New York, recently won over Chicago, recently won over Dallas, and recently lost to New York. That gives the Aces three wins in their last five games.
Las Vegas is averaging 91.1 points per game while allowing 86.6 points per contest. The Aces are shooting 49 percent from the field and averaging 35.2 rebounds, 22.7 assists, 5.4 blocks, and 7.1 steals per game.
The biggest edge for Las Vegas is balance. The Aces allow fewer points per game than Indiana while also shooting a higher percentage from the field, averaging more rebounds, more assists, more blocks, and more steals. Those statistical advantages support their stronger overall record and home profile.
Breaking Down the Matchup
This matchup brings together an Indiana team sitting at 11-8 and a Las Vegas team sitting at 15-5. The Aces have the better overall record, the better home record, and the stronger matchup predictor number, with ESPN Analytics giving Las Vegas a 59.5 percent chance to win compared to 40.5 percent for Indiana.
The betting market also points toward Las Vegas as the favorite. The Aces are -238 on the moneyline and favored by 6.5 points, while Indiana is +195 as the underdog. The total is listed at 183.5, which reflects two teams averaging more than 90 points per game.
Indiana has the higher scoring average at 93.9 points per game, but Las Vegas has advantages in points allowed, field goal percentage, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals. That combination makes the Aces the more complete statistical side entering this matchup, even though Indiana has enough scoring ability to challenge.
Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces Picks and Prediction
Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces Pick
- Pick: Las Vegas Aces -6.5
Las Vegas is the pick based solely on the provided information. The Aces have the better overall record, stronger home mark, higher matchup predictor percentage, and are favored by 6.5 points. Las Vegas also holds advantages in field goal percentage, points allowed, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals, which gives the home team the better overall profile.
Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces Total Pick
- Pick: Over 183.5
I like the over 183.5 because both teams average more than 90 points per game. Indiana averages 93.9 points, while Las Vegas averages 91.1, and their combined scoring averages sit above the posted total. Based strictly on the provided team stats, I expect enough offense for this matchup to clear the number.
Final Score Prediction: Las Vegas Aces 96 – Indiana Fever 90
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