Indiana Fever vs. Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction for Thursday, July 9, 2026
Use Code SSWC The Indiana Fever visit the Phoenix Mercury on Thursday at 10:00 PM ET at the Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona. Indiana enters with a 12-8 record and sits first in the Eastern Conference, while Phoenix is 8-14 and is seventh in the Western Conference. The Fever have won two straight games, including an impressive 84-68 road victory over the Las Vegas Aces, while the Mercury are coming off a 77-66 home loss to the Chicago Sky. These teams have already split two meetings this season, with each winning once in Indiana. Build your bankroll with our free WNBA picks.
Indiana Fever Looking to Stay Atop the Eastern Conference
Indiana has been one of the WNBA's best offensive teams, leading the league with 93.5 points per game while shooting 46.2% from the field. The Fever also average 21.0 assists and 34.5 rebounds per contest, consistently creating quality scoring opportunities. Kelsey Mitchell has carried the scoring load with 21.9 points per game while shooting 48.9% from the field and nearly 40% from three-point range. Aliyah Boston continues to dominate inside, averaging 17.1 points and 8.6 rebounds, while Caitlin Clark has contributed 21.2 points and a league-leading 8.2 assists despite recently missing time. Indiana has topped 90 points in three of its last five contests.
The Fever have allowed 88.9 points per game, ranking near the middle of the league defensively, but they continue to make timely stops when needed. Indiana held Las Vegas to only 68 points in its most recent victory after allowing Phoenix 111 points during the teams' last meeting in June.
Injuries: Aliyah Boston (game-time decision, leg), Caitlin Clark (out, back).
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Phoenix Mercury Looking to Even the Season Series
Phoenix has struggled to find consistency but remains capable of putting together explosive offensive performances. The Mercury average 83.4 points per game while shooting 43.4% from the floor. Kahleah Copper leads the offense with 20.8 points per game, while Alyssa Thomas continues to fill the stat sheet with 14.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, and a league-leading 8.3 assists per contest. DeWanna Bonner provides veteran scoring, Monique Akoa Makani has added nearly 10 points per game, and Phoenix showed its offensive ceiling by defeating Indiana 111-109 less than three weeks ago.
Defensively, the Mercury have allowed 85.5 points per game while forcing 13.1 turnovers per contest. Phoenix has been more competitive over its last five games, posting wins over Seattle and Toronto before falling to Chicago. Rebounding could become a concern with Natasha Mack unavailable, placing additional responsibility on Thomas and Bonner to control the paint against Boston and Indiana's frontcourt.
Injuries: Shay Ciezki (out), Natasha Mack (out, foot), Jovana Nogic (out for season), Sami Whitcomb (out, knee).
Indiana Fever vs. Phoenix Mercury Game Pick
- Indiana Fever -5.5
Indiana owns the more complete roster and enters this matchup playing excellent basketball after consecutive double-digit victories. The Fever lead the WNBA in scoring and have already shown they can respond after a disappointing loss to Phoenix earlier this season. Mitchell continues to play at an All-Star level, while Boston gives Indiana a major advantage inside if she is available. Even without Clark, the Fever have enough scoring depth and offensive balance to control this matchup against a Phoenix team that has struggled throughout the season. Indiana will win and cover.
Indiana Fever vs. Phoenix Mercury Over/Under Pick
- Over 184.5
Both meetings between these teams in June produced 163 and 220 total points, including Phoenix's 111-109 victory. Indiana leads the league in scoring at 93.5 points per game, while the Mercury have enough offensive talent behind Copper and Thomas to contribute their share. The Fever continue to push the pace offensively, and Phoenix has shown it can take advantage of defensive lapses. With two teams capable of scoring in transition and creating quality looks, this matchup will cash above the total.
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