Indiana Fever vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, September 2, 2025
The Indiana Fever are heading to the PHX Arena on Tuesday night to face off against the Phoenix Mercury in nonconference action for our Fever vs. Mercury prediction. The Fever are 21-19 and are coming off Sunday’s 75-63 road loss against the Golden State Valkyries. The Mercury are 25-14 so far and are on a four-game winning streak as they are coming off an 80-63 home win on Saturday against the New York Liberty. This is the third and final game against one another this season and the winner of this game will win the season series. Keep up with the hottest sport in the nation and grab some free WNBA Picks
Fever Looking to Make the Playoffs
The Indiana Fever are coming off a rough 75-63 road loss against the Golden State Valkyries last time out. The Fever shot 21-of-63 (33.3%) overall, 6-of-30 (20.0%) from beyond the arc, and 15-of-18 (83.3%) from the charity stripe. Veteran guard Aerial Powers well as in 19 minutes off the bench, she recorded 17 points, four rebounds, one assist, and one steal. The defense had a brutal showing in the loss for Golden State as they allowed Indiana to shoot 50.9% throughout the game, 63.2% from distance, and 77.8% from the free-throw line.
Indiana has been a solid offensive team as they are fourth in basketball with 84.5 points per game. The Fever are struggling on the defensive side of things as well as their 82.2 points per game allowed is ninth in the league.
Injury Report for Indiana
- Forward Chloe Bibby: Knee (OUT)
- Guard Caitlin Clark: Groin (OUT)
- Guard Sydney Colson: Knee (OUT)
- Forward Sophie Cunningham: Knee (OUT)
- Guard Aari McDonald: Foot (OUT)
- Guard Kristy Wallace: Not Injury Related (OUT)
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Mercury Fighting for the 2 Seed
The Phoenix Mercury are coming off a solid 80-63 home win over the New York Liberty in their most recent game. The Mercury shot the basketball at a great rate as they were 30-of-63 (47.6%) from the floor, 12-of-27 (44.4%) from three, and 8-of-14 (57.1%) from the free-throw line. Veteran guard Kahleah Copper led the way with 22 points, two rebounds, and one steal in 33 minutes of action. The defense did a good job as New York had a team shooting split of 44.4/32.0/63.6.
The Mercury are holding their own offensively as they currently are sixth in the WNBA with 83.1 points per game. The defense has been stepping up as they are fourth in the sport with 79.6 points per game given up thus far.
Injury Report for Phoenix
- Guard Julia Ayrault: Personal (OUT)
- Center Kalani Brown: Personal (OUT)
- Guard Helena Pueyo: Personal (OUT)
Phoenix Mercury -6.5 (5 units)
The ability to defend the perimeter is critical to be successful and there is a gap as Indiana is ninth in the WNBA with a 33.7 opposing 3-point percentage, while Phoenix is fourth with a 32.3 3-point percentage against. When diving into the previous 10 games, there is a gap with their passing as the Fever are 12th with a 1.34 assist-to-turnover ratio in that stretch while the Mercury are fifth with a 1.68 ratio right now. Take the Phoenix Mercury to cover the spread as the better bet here.
Over 164.5 (5 units)
Full Game Total Prediction Analysis
The offensive ratings show these teams can score the basketball well as Indiana is fourth in the sport with a 105.6 offensive rating, while Phoenix is seventh with a 103.8 offensive rating so far. Both teams are also pushing the pace throughout the year as the Fever are fifth with a 95.87 pace while the Mercury are right ahead of them in fourth place with a 95.95 pace up to this point. All in all, go with over 164.5 total points to score.
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