Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever Picks and Prediction for Sunday, September 28, 2025

The Las Vegas Aces (30-14) are set to face off against the Indiana Fever (24-20) on September 28th at 3:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in WNBA Semifinals Game 4 action as we look at the Aces vs. Fever prediction. The Aces were able to have a great fourth quarter in Game 3 on the road to make this a 2-1 series in their favor. Tempo and matchup notes — WNBA picks for Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever in one quick read.

Aces Looking to Advance to WNBA Finals

The Las Vegas Aces are one win away from making it to the WNBA Finals for the fourth time in six years. They are coming off a solid 84-72 road win in Game 3 of the WNBA Semifinals over the Indiana Fever. It helps shooting 50.8% from the floor and 40.0% from beyond the arc thus far.

Offensively, the Aces are averaging 84.3 points per game. The efficiency is notable, with a field goal percentage of 48.6 and a 3-point percentage of 38.4. At the free-throw line, they have stepped up as they had a 76.9% success rate while doing a rough job with their rebounds per game, finishing at 30.7. This offensive depth has been led by center A’ja Wilson with her 23.7 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 2.2 steals, and 2.5 blocks per game in the playoffs.

Defensively, the Aces have been stepping up, giving up 77.5 points per game with opponents shooting 42.7% from the field and 37.4% from beyond the arc.

 

Injury Report for Las Vegas

No injuries to report

Fever Looking to Force a Game 5

The Indiana Fever are looking to keep their season alive as they are on the brink of being eliminated from the postseason. The Fever are coming off an 84-72 home loss against the Las Vegas Aces in Game 3 and it is difficult to be competitive after losing the fourth quarter 25-16.

 

On offense, Indiana manages to score an average of 76.8 points per game in the postseason. Shooting accuracy stands at 41.0% from the field and 30.4% from the 3-point line, with a free-throw percentage of 77.7%. The offense has gone through guard Kelsey Mitchell as she is averaging 23.0 points, 1.2 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 0.3 blocks, and 1.3 steals per game during the playoffs.

 

Defensively, Indiana has struggled thus far as they are conceding 78.7 points per game. Opponents have shot at a solid level against them, with a field goal percentage allowed of 45.3 and a 3-point percentage that allowed the opposition to connect on 31.1%.

 

Injury Report for Indiana

• Forward Chloe Bibby: Knee (OUT)
• Guard Caitlin Clark: Groin (OUT)
• Guard Sydney Colson: Knee (OUT)
• Forward Sophie Cunningham: Knee (OUT)
• Center Damiris Dantas: Concussion (OUT)
• Guard Aari McDonald: Foot (OUT)
• Guard Kristy Wallace: Not Injury Related (OUT)

Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever Pick

Spread Pick for Aces vs. Fever

• Las Vegas Aces -190 (5 units)

The Las Vegas Aces have the momentum by winning two consecutive games after losing Game 1, and have done so by winning by 12+ points in those two games. The Aces are looking like a legitimate threat to win the WNBA Finals and the only weakness has been their inability to grab misses. However, they have the reigning WNBA MVP in center A’ja Wilson and a solid 1-2 punch with her and guard Jackie Young. Indiana does not have the firepower to keep the game close enough, especially when the game gets late. Indiana does not have the postseason experience to get the benefit of the doubt with their backs against the wall, while this is a position Las Vegas has been in throughout 2020s. All in all, go with the Las Vegas Aces to record a win here and advance to the WNBA Finals.

Over/Under Pick for Aces vs. Fever

• UNDER 159.5 (4 units)

During the playoffs, these teams are stepping up on the defensive side of the court as Las Vegas is fifth with a 98.3 defensive rating in the postseason, while Indiana is sixth with a 98.7 defensive rating thus far. In Game 3, the Aces proved they are willing to simply drive the basketball as they only attempted 10 3-point attempts. Both teams were also able to get to the free-throw line, which is something that may not happen, as they attempted 38 trips to the charity stripe. Go with UNDER 159.5 POINTS as the better bet to make for this game.