Las Vegas Aces vs Indiana Fever Picks and Prediction for Tuesday September 29 2026

The Las Vegas Aces visit the Indiana Fever at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana, on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, for Game 2 of their first-round playoff series. Tipoff is scheduled for 6:30 PM ET with coverage on Prime Video. Las Vegas enters at 31-13 overall and 16-6 on the road, while Indiana is 28-16 overall and 15-7 at home. The Aces lead the best-of-three series 1-0 after a dominant 102-85 victory in Las Vegas on Sunday. Indiana is a 1.5-point home favorite for Game 2 at -105, while Las Vegas is +1.5 at -115. The Fever are -118 on the moneyline with the Aces at -102, and the total is set at 183.5. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks for more WNBA predictions throughout the playoffs.

Las Vegas Takes a Seven-Game Winning Streak to Indiana

Las Vegas enters Game 2 on a seven-game winning streak and with an opportunity to eliminate Indiana on its home floor. The Aces were already playing outstanding basketball entering the postseason, winning their final four regular-season games by margins of 18, 10, 21 and 37 points. They continued that run Sunday by beating Indiana by 17.

The Game 1 numbers were even more impressive than the final margin. Las Vegas shot 59% from the floor and 47% from three-point range while producing 102 points. The Aces recorded 24 assists on 38 made field goals and finished with a 31-24 rebounding advantage. They also blocked six shots. Turnovers were the primary negative, with Las Vegas committing 16, but Indiana couldn't turn those mistakes into enough production to keep the game close.

The defensive performance deserves attention as well. Indiana entered Game 1 with considerable offensive upside but was held to 45% shooting and 85 points. Las Vegas led for 88% of the game and built a 27-point advantage. The Aces have now scored at least 98 points in four of their last five games while holding four of those five opponents below 90.

Indiana Returns Home Facing Elimination

Indiana now gets the benefit of returning to Gainbridge Fieldhouse, where it went 15-7 during the regular season. The Fever need that home-court advantage after being thoroughly outplayed in Game 1. Indiana actually started reasonably well, scoring 23 first-quarter points, but surrendered 35 in the second quarter and entered halftime trailing 62-47.

The Fever shot 45% overall, 39% from three and 93% at the free-throw line in Game 1. Those aren't disastrous offensive numbers, but Indiana couldn't match Las Vegas' efficiency. The Fever were outrebounded 31-24 and finished without a blocked shot. They also committed 16 turnovers, eliminating any potential advantage created by Las Vegas' identical turnover total.

Recent form is the larger concern. Indiana has lost three of its last four games and allowed 102, 86 and 93 points in those defeats. The Fever still averaged 96.0 points per game during the season, but they also allowed 102.0. Against a Las Vegas team currently playing its best basketball of the season, Indiana needs a substantial defensive improvement to extend the series.

Las Vegas Aces vs Indiana Fever Picks and Prediction

Pick: Las Vegas Aces +1.5 (-115)

Indiana has the home-court advantage and is facing elimination, but the market is asking us to take 1.5 points with a Las Vegas team riding a seven-game winning streak after winning Game 1 by 17. The Aces shot an unsustainable 59% Sunday, so some offensive regression should be expected, but they don't need another performance anywhere near that efficient to stay within this number. Las Vegas also owns a 16-6 road record and has won its last five games by an average margin of 20.6 points. Indiana should be much more competitive at home, but laying points against the hotter and more consistent team is difficult to justify. Take Las Vegas +1.5.

Pick: Over 183.5 (-110)

Game 1 produced 187 combined points, clearing Tuesday's higher 183.5 total despite Indiana scoring only 85. Las Vegas has now scored 102, 100, 89, 98 and 114 points over its last five games, while Indiana needs greater offensive production to have any chance of forcing Game 3. The concern is regression from Las Vegas' 59% Game 1 shooting, but Indiana's season-long defensive numbers and the Aces' recent scoring form provide enough room to compensate. An elimination game should also keep Indiana aggressive offensively throughout the fourth quarter. With both teams capable of reaching the 90s, I'll stay with the over.

Final Picks: Las Vegas Aces +1.5 (-115) and Over 183.5 (-110)