Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction for Friday, October 10, 2025
Game 4 of the 2025 WNBA Finals could be the end of the series as the Las Vegas Aces are heading to the Mortgage Matchup Center on Friday night to battle against the Phoenix Mercury for our Aces vs. Mercury prediction. Las Vegas was able to record a 90-88 road win in Game 3 of the series to take a commanding 3-0 series lead. On the court: WNBA predictions for Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury with recent form.
Aces Looking to Sweep the WNBA Finals
The Las Vegas Aces were able to squeak out a 90-88 road win in Game 3 of the WNBA Finals to go up 3-0. The Aces finished shooting 29-of-68 (42.6%) from the floor, 9-of-24 (37.5%) from three, and 23-of-25 (92.0%) from the free-throw line. Center A’ja Wilson led the way with 34 points, 14 rebounds, four assists, three blocks, and three turnovers in 38 minutes of action. She also hit the game-winning shot to give the Aces a commanding 3-0 lead. The defense allowed Phoenix to have a team shooting split of 43.9/33.3/74.2
Las Vegas has averaged the most points during the postseason thus far with 87.8 right now. The Aces are sitting in fifth place as they are giving up 82.3 points per game during the playoffs as well.
Injury Report for Las Vegas
No injuries to report
Mercury Looking to Force a Game 5
The Phoenix Mercury are looking to recover from a tough 90-88 home loss in Game 3 of the WNBA Finals to make this an elimination game. The Mercury shot 29-of-66 (43.9%) overall, 7-of-21 (33.3%) from beyond the arc, and 23-of-31 (74.2%) from the charity stripe. Veteran forward DeWanna Bonner played 31 minutes off the bench as she recorded 25 points, 10 rebounds, and one block. The defense allowed Las Vegas to shoot 42.6% throughout the game, 37.5% from distance, and 92.0% from the free-throw line.
Phoenix is currently third in the WNBA with 81.4 points per game scored in the postseason. Their defense ranks fourth in the playoffs as they are allowing 80.1 points per game as well.
Injury Report for Phoenix
- Guard Julia Ayrault: Personal (OUT)
- Guard Helena Pueyo: Personal (OUT)
- Forward Satou Sabally: Head (OUT)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Pick
Spread Pick for Aces vs. Mercury
- Phoenix Mercury +120 (4 units)
The Mercury have to win one game, right? Game 3 was close as Phoenix returned home and even with Satou Sabally now being injured and ruled out, the Mercury seemingly found a formula to be in striking distance: drawing contact and getting to the charity stripe. The Mercury may have found an answer as they outscored the Aces in the second half 45-35. With this game having Phoenix’s season on the brink, expect them to play well and step up with a win in Game 4.
Over/Under Pick for Aces vs. Mercury
- UNDER 162.5 (5 units)
Is this a hedge for the above pick? Yes, but there is also some reasoning behind this. Both teams are going to be in a position where they have played with pace throughout the postseason as Phoenix has recorded a 95.41 pace while Las Vegas is at 94.87 this playoff run. Losing Satou Sabally is losing a player who scored 19.0 points per game in the postseason and 21.7 points in the WNBA Finals so far. These teams are going to struggle to get that same whistle that landed them a combined 56 free-throw attempts in Game 3. All in all, go with UNDER 162.5 POINTS.