Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction for Thursday, September 24, 2026

The Las Vegas Aces visit the Phoenix Mercury on Thursday at Mortgage Matchup Center, with the start of the game scheduled for 10:00 PM ET and televised on USA Network. This is the final regular-season game for both teams. Las Vegas is 30-13, sits third in the WNBA standings and has clinched a playoff berth. The Aces beat Los Angeles 89-79 on Tuesday for their sixth straight victory. Phoenix is 16-27, sits 10th overall, and has been eliminated from playoff contention. The Mercury edged Dallas 87-86 on Monday and have won three of their last five games. Las Vegas leads the season series 2-1.Cash a big winner with our free WNBA picks.

Las Vegas Aces Riding a Six-Game Winning Streak

Las Vegas has been rolling, with its last five victories coming by 10 points or more. The Aces beat Toronto twice, Seattle twice and Los Angeles during that stretch, including a 114-77 road win over the Storm. A’ja Wilson averages 26.2 points, 9.3 rebounds and 2.0 blocks while shooting 52.7% from the field. Jackie Young adds 19.4 points and 6.6 assists, while Chelsea Gray averages 11.9 points and 6.7 assists.

The Aces average 91.3 points per game while shooting 48.4% from the field and 35.9% from 3-point range. Las Vegas also averages 33.5 rebounds, 22.0 assists and 4.9 blocks while committing only 12.0 turnovers. Opponents score 86.1 points per game against the Aces and shoot 44.3%. Las Vegas owns a +5.4 average scoring margin and a 15-6 road record entering the regular-season finale.

Injuries: NaLyssa Smith (out).

Phoenix Mercury Trying to Finish With Consecutive Wins

Phoenix has won three of its last five, beating Toronto, Portland and Dallas. The Mercury scored at least 87 points in each victory and most recently defeated the Wings 87-86. Kahleah Copper leads Phoenix with 21.6 points per game while shooting 44.9% from the field. Alyssa Thomas averages 14.5 points, 7.8 rebounds and 8.5 assists, while Natasha Mack records 8.8 points, 6.7 rebounds and 1.3 blocks.

The Mercury average 84.4 points while shooting 44.4% overall and 32.9% from behind the arc. Phoenix averages 31.6 rebounds, 20.2 assists and 13.0 turnovers per game. Defensively, the Mercury allow 87.3 points while opponents shoot 46.2% from the field and 35.8% from 3-point range. Phoenix has a -2.9 average scoring margin and a 7-14 home record. The Mercury have scored 82 or more in four of their last five games.

Injuries: Kelsey Plum (out), Jovana Nogic (out).

Key Player Matchup

A’ja Wilson vs Alyssa Thomas

Wilson and Thomas affect this matchup in several areas. Wilson averages 26.2 points, 9.3 rebounds and 2.0 blocks while making 52.7% of her shots. Thomas averages 14.5 points and leads Phoenix with 7.8 rebounds and 8.5 assists. Phoenix needs Thomas to create scoring chances while also dealing with Wilson around the basket. Wilson’s scoring and rebounding numbers make her a major challenge for a Mercury defense, allowing opponents to shoot 46.2%.

Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Game Pick

• Las Vegas Aces

Las Vegas is the pick with six consecutive wins and a 15-6 road record. The Aces have scored 88 or more in each of their last five games, including three performances above 90. Wilson and Young combine for 45.6 points per game, while Gray adds another playmaker with 6.7 assists. Phoenix has dropped two of the first three meetings with Las Vegas, including a 106-58 loss in July. The Aces also hold clear season advantages in scoring, shooting, and average scoring margin.

Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Over/Under Pick

• Over

The play is over after Las Vegas scored 88, 93, 114, 98 and 89 points across its last five games. Phoenix has also reached 82 points in four straight contests, including 94 against Portland and 101 against Toronto. The Aces average 91.3 points and shoot 48.4%, while the Mercury allow 87.3 points per game. Phoenix has enough scoring through Copper and Thomas to contribute, and Las Vegas has topped 90 points in three of its last four contests.