Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, October 8, 2025

Welcome to Game 2 of the 2025 WNBA Finals as the Phoenix Mercury are heading to the Michelob ULTRA Arena on Sunday afternoon to battle against the Las Vegas Aces for our Mercury vs. Aces prediction. The Mercury were able to squeak out an 89-86 home win in Game 1 to get the early advantage in the series. These teams have played tough, but Las Vegas has now won four of the five games they have played when factoring in the regular season and playoffs. Set the tone — WNBA picks for Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury with clear angles.

Aces Sweep First 2 Games

The Las Vegas Aces were able to control the game early on with a 91-78 Game 2 home victory to go 2-0 in the series. They used a 19-4 spurt in the second quarter and never really were threatened after that as they led by as many as 22 points in the fourth quarter. The Aces finished shooting 37-of-75 (49.3%) from the floor, 8-of-23 (34.8%) from three, and 9-of-13 (69.2%) from the free-throw line. Guard Jackie Young led the way with 32 points, eight rebounds, two assists, one steal, and three turnovers in 34 minutes of action. The defense allowed Phoenix to have a team shooting split of 40.8/17.9/83.3.

Las Vegas has averaged the most points during the postseason thus far with 87.2 right now. The Aces are sitting in fifth place as they are giving up 82.1 points per game during the playoffs as well.

Injury Report for Las Vegas

No injuries to report

Mercury Looking to Take Control at Home

The Phoenix Mercury are looking to recover from a tough 91-78 road loss in Game 2 of the WNBA Finals. The Mercury shot 29-of-71 (40.8%) overall, 5-of-28 (17.9%) from beyond the arc, and 15-of-18 (83.3%) from the charity stripe. Guard Kahleah Copper played 31 minutes as she recorded 23 points and three rebounds. Satou Sabally added 22 for the Mercury. Alyssa Thomas was held to 10 points, six rebounds and five assists. She was also saddled with foul trouble that changed Phoenix's ability to defend four-time league MVP Aj'a Wilson.  The defense allowed Las Vegas to shoot 49.3% throughout the game, 34.8% from distance, and 69.2% from the free-throw line.

Phoenix is currently fourth in the WNBA with 81.0 points per game scored in the postseason. Their defense ranks second in the playoffs as they are allowing 77.5 points per game as well.

Injury Report for Phoenix

• Guard Julia Ayrault: Personal (OUT)
• Guard Helena Pueyo: Personal (OUT)

Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Pick

Spread Pick for Aces vs. Mercury

• Las Vegas Aces +150 (4 units)

The Phoenix Mercury are back at home, where they were 15-7 during the regular season and are 3-1 so far in the playoffs. However, the Las Vegas Aces are clearly the better team and stepped up as road warriors this season. The Aces have two advantages they can exploit as WNBA MVP A’ja Wilson is averaging 24.5 points, 12.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game in the Finals thus far. Secondly, the bench points have shown a significant difference as in Game 2, it was a 16-8 advantage for the Aces. All in all, go with the Las Vegas Aces to win as a road underdog with good value.

Over/Under Pick for Aces vs. Mercury

• OVER 163.5 (5 units)

The first two games saw these teams reach this total with relative ease, so there is an expectation that these teams are going to score well. When looking at the effective field goal percentage throughout the playoffs, the Aces are first with a 53.8 effective field goal percentage, while the Mercury are fourth with a 47.4 effective shooting percentage thus far. This series has a 98.1 pace so far, which means there are a lot of possessions and more chances to score. Go with OVER 163.5 POINTS to hit as the better bet to make for this game.