Las Vegas Aces vs Toronto Tempo Picks and Prediction for Sunday August 23, 2026

The Las Vegas Aces travel to Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, to face the Toronto Tempo on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET with coverage on WNBA League Pass, TSN and Vegas 34. Las Vegas enters the matchup at 25-13 overall and 13-6 on the road, while Toronto is 11-25 overall and 7-12 at home. The Aces are 10.5-point favorites with the total set at 183.5. Las Vegas is -700 on the moneyline and Toronto is +500. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks for more predictions throughout the season.

Las Vegas Brings the Stronger Overall Profile

Las Vegas comes into this matchup having won three of its last five games. The Aces are coming off a dominant 101-78 victory and have also posted recent wins of 83-76 and 86-76. Their two losses during that stretch came by scores of 97-82 and 92-87.

The Aces average 90.6 points per game while allowing 87.1, giving them a positive scoring margin of 3.5 points per contest. They shoot 48% from the field while averaging 33.6 rebounds, 21.9 assists, 5.0 blocks and 6.8 steals per game.

Las Vegas also owns a strong 13-6 road record. That matters against a Toronto team that has struggled to protect its home floor. The Aces have the advantage in scoring, field-goal percentage, rebounding, assists, rim protection and overall defensive efficiency.

Toronto Faces a Difficult Matchup

Toronto enters Sunday at 11-25 overall and has lost four of its last five games. The Tempo did snap that skid with an 82-79 victory in their most recent outing, but the previous four games ended in losses of 93-82, 101-95, 94-88 and 107-95.

The Tempo average 87.5 points per game while allowing 93.9, one of the biggest concerns entering this matchup. Toronto shoots 45% from the field and averages 31.4 rebounds, 20.0 assists, 3.3 blocks and 6.9 steals per contest.

Toronto's recent scoring numbers have been respectable, but the defensive side remains the larger issue. The Tempo have surrendered at least 93 points in four of their last five games, and now face a Las Vegas team averaging more than 90 points per contest.

Las Vegas Aces vs Toronto Tempo Picks and Prediction

Pick: Las Vegas Aces -10.5

This is a large spread, but the matchup still points toward Las Vegas. The Aces have the better overall record, superior road performance and a clear efficiency advantage on both ends of the floor.

Las Vegas is shooting 48% compared with Toronto's 45% while allowing 87.1 points per game compared with Toronto's 93.9. The Tempo have also been vulnerable defensively during their recent stretch, giving up 93, 101, 94 and 107 points in four consecutive games before their latest win.

The previous meeting between these teams resulted in a 109-83 Las Vegas victory, a 26-point margin. While there is no guarantee of another blowout, the statistical gap remains significant enough to lay the points.

Take Las Vegas -10.5.

Pick: Under 183.5

The number is high enough to give the under some appeal. Las Vegas averages 90.6 points and Toronto averages 87.5, producing a combined scoring average of 178.1. Even when combining each team's offensive production, the baseline still sits more than five points below the listed total.

Toronto's defense creates obvious over risk, but Las Vegas has also held opponents to 78, 76 and 76 points in three of its last five games. If the Aces control the matchup as expected, they should be able to dictate enough of the pace defensively to keep the final total below the mid-180s.

The prior meeting finished 109-83 for 192 combined points, but that type of scoring output requires Toronto to contribute enough offensively. Against a stronger Las Vegas defensive setup, that is not the side of the matchup I want to rely on.

Take Under 183.5.