Las Vegas Aces vs Washington Mystics Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, July 22, 2026
The Las Vegas Aces visit the Washington Mystics at CareFirst Arena in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET, with television coverage available through WNBA League Pass, MNMT, and Vegas 34. Las Vegas enters as a 6.5-point road favorite and is listed at -258 on the moneyline, while Washington is priced at +210. The total is set at 162.5 points. ESPN Analytics gives Las Vegas a 68.9% chance of winning, compared with 31.1% for Washington. Before making any wagers on the matchup, be sure to check out our free WNBA Picks.
Las Vegas Brings Its Offensive Advantage to Washington
Las Vegas enters Wednesday’s matchup with an 18-7 overall record and an excellent 11-2 mark away from home. The Aces are 3-2 over their last five games and recently won over Toronto 109-83. Las Vegas also recently won over Phoenix 106-58 and Portland 88-80, while its two defeats came against Indiana by scores of 109-75 and 84-68. Each of the Aces’ three victories during this stretch came by at least eight points, including two wins by 26 points or more.
The Aces average 90.7 points per game while allowing 85.8 points, producing a positive scoring differential of 4.9 points. Las Vegas shoots 49% from the field and averages 34.7 rebounds and 22.7 assists per contest. The Aces also contribute 5.1 blocks and 7.1 steals per game. Compared with Washington, Las Vegas averages 10.7 more points, shoots six percentage points better from the field, and produces 3.6 more assists, 1.4 more blocks, and 1.6 more steals.
Las Vegas’ defining strength is its offensive efficiency. The Aces’ 49% shooting rate accompanies an average of more than 90 points per game, while their 22.7 assists suggest that the offense consistently creates productive opportunities. That strength was especially visible in their last victory, when the Aces scored 109 points. Las Vegas has displayed considerable variation across its recent results, but its three victories in the five-game sample were all accompanied by at least 88 points and comfortable winning margins.
Washington Relies on Defense and Rebounding at Home
Washington comes into Wednesday night with a 13-12 overall record and a 5-6 mark at CareFirst Arena. The Mystics are 3-2 across their last five games after recently winning over Golden State 90-82. Washington recently lost to Golden State 74-69 and Portland 75-56, but it also recorded victories over Toronto 79-62 and Seattle 84-79. The Mystics have held four of their last five opponents to 82 points or fewer, including two opponents below 65 points.
The Mystics average 80.0 points per game while surrendering 82.5 points, leaving them with a negative average scoring differential of 2.5 points. Washington shoots 43% from the field and averages 37.1 rebounds and 19.1 assists. The Mystics also produce 3.7 blocks and 5.5 steals per game. Washington’s primary statistical advantage over Las Vegas is on the boards, where it averages 2.4 more rebounds per contest. The Mystics also allow 3.3 fewer points per game than the Aces.
Washington’s most important strength is its defensive performance. The Mystics have allowed fewer than 80 points in four of their last five games, and they enter with a better points-against average than Las Vegas. That defensive record gives Washington a possible path to keeping the game competitive despite its disadvantages in scoring and shooting. However, the Mystics scored only 56 and 69 points in their two recent defeats, demonstrating the challenge they face when their defense cannot completely control the contest.
Las Vegas Aces vs Washington Mystics Picks and Prediction
Las Vegas Aces vs Washington Mystics Pick
- Pick: Las Vegas Aces -6.5
I am laying the 6.5 points with Las Vegas. The Aces own the better overall and road records, while their offense averages 10.7 more points than Washington and shoots six percentage points better from the field. Las Vegas has also won three of its last five games, with all three victories coming by at least eight points. Washington has played solid defense recently and holds an advantage in rebounding, but the Mystics are only 5-6 at home and have struggled offensively in their recent losses. The Aces’ advantages in scoring, shooting, assists, blocks, and steals support a road victory that clears the spread.
Las Vegas Aces vs Washington Mystics Total Pick
- Pick: Under 162.5
I am taking the under 162.5. Although the teams combine to average 170.7 points per game, Washington’s recent results point toward a more defensive matchup. Four of the Mystics’ last five games finished with 163 combined points or fewer, and Washington held four of those opponents below 80 points. The Mystics have also scored 79 points or fewer in three of their last five contests. Las Vegas has produced two recent offensive explosions, but the Aces also scored only 68 and 75 points in their two losses during this stretch. I expect Las Vegas to win while Washington’s pace of scoring helps keep the final total below the number.
Final Score Prediction: Las Vegas Aces 84 – Washington Mystics 76