Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction - September 9, 2025
The WNBA regular season is in its final days but there are things still be determined and our Sparks vs. Mercury predictions should help you sort through the late season confusion. Los Angeles (20-22 SU, 17-24-1 ATS) kept hope alive with a 91-77 win over Dallas as -9.5 favorites at home on Sunday. In line for a top four position, Phoenix (27-15 SU, 21-20-1 ATS) lost to Connecticut on Saturday, 87-84, as -10.5-point favorites on the road. Tipoff from PHX Arena is scheduled for 10:00 EST and with so much on the line, do yourself a favor, read more about tonight’s free WNBA Predictions.
Backs against the wall for Sparks
It’s do-or-die for the Sparks. Sitting 1.5 games behind Seattle for the final playoff spot, they are going to need to win their final two games of the regular season and hope the Storm collapse in their finale on Tuesday night. After beating Seattle earlier in the month, Los Angeles has a 3-1 SU advantage over Seattle in the head-to-head, which would determine a tiebreaker.
Through game 42, the Sparks' offense was second in the WNBA with 85.9 points per game. The team is shooting 45.9% from the field and 34.3% from beyond the arc, hitting 8.7 threes and 15.7 free throws a night. They are in the bottom half of the league in rebounding with 33.3 boards per game and their 20.6 assists average ranks sixth. On defense, Los Angeles is allowing 88 points per game, the second-worst mark in the league. Opponents are shooting 45.3% from the field against them, with 9.8 threes per game. The Sparks are forcing 12.6 turnovers from teams thanks to 7.2 steals and 3.1 blocks per game.
Last time out, the Sparks offense scored at least 21 points in each quarter and put up 49 in the second half to pull away from the Wings. Los Angeles shot only 40.5% from the field but they hit 10 threes and 13 field goals. They were outrebounded, 46-41, by only coughed up seven turnovers on the night while their defense forced 17 turnovers from the Wings for 21 points. They also held Dallas to 38.9% shooting from the field and 21.7% from three in the win.
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Team notes
- All five starters scored at least 11 points in Sunday’s win.
- Kelsey Plum, fourth in the league with 19.7 points per game, has averaged 15.7 points and shot 37.7% over his last six games.
- Azura Stevens had 13 points and 11 rebounds on Sunday, her sixth double-double of the season and first since July 26th.
- Cameron Brink came off the bench and grabbed a season-high nine rebounds while scoring six points in 15 minutes against Dallas.
- Julie Allemand was a clean 8-8 from the field in scoring a team and season-high 21 points on Sunday.
Mercury with room to grow still
The Mercury are in fourth place and are two games up on fifth-place New York, whom they hold the tiebreaker over. There is just one game that separates 2nd through 4th place and the Mercury, with two games remaining, could make a great leap in the final days of the regular season, with last place Dallas their finale game on Thursday.
Coming into the final week of play, the Mercury are sitting seventh in the league in offensive scoring, averaging 83 points per game. They are shooting 42.9% from the field and 33.8% from three-point range, with 9.3 threes and 14 free throws falling from them on a nightly basis. They are fifth in the league with both 34.7 rebounds and 21 free throws per game. Defensively, Phoenix is giving up 79.5 points per game, the fourth-best mark in the WNBA. Opponents are shooting 42.1% from the field and 32.2% from beyond the arc while the Mercury average 7.9 steals and 3.78 blocks, leading to 14.1 turnovers per game out of their foes.
Saturday’s loss halted a six-game winning streak for the Mercury. The offense was off, shooting 40.8% from the field, though they did also hit 11 threes and 15 free throws. They lost the battle down low, getting outrebounded, 39-33, while also being outscored in the paint, 40-34. The Mercury coughed the ball up 13 times and committed 25 fouls which resulted in Connecticut shooting 26-34 from the line. The Sun also shot 44.4% from the field and 31.3% three-point range. Phoenix’s defense had seven steals but only one block and they forced 14 turnovers from their opponent for 15 points.
Team notes
- Alyssa Thomas, who leads the league with 9.2 assists per game, had 19 points, 10 assists and eight rebounds in Saturday’s loss.
- The team got 27 points from their bench on Saturday.
- Kahleah Cooper scored a team-high 18 points on Saturday, her second straight game with exactly that amount and the fourth time in her last five games she scored at least that.
- Satou Sabally, who leads the team with 16.7 points per game, averaged 11.4 over her last five games.
Sparks vs. Mercury Picks
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,502.00 |
| 2 |  Pro Sports Picks | +1,421.00 |
| 3 |  Brick Haus Sports | +634.00 |
| 4 |  David Delano | +492.00 |
| 5 |  Michael Briggs | +355.00 |
Spread Pick for Sparks vs. Mercury
- Phoenix -6 (5 units)
This is the fourth meeting of the season between the Western Conference foes. Phoenix is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS thus far, winning their last meeting on August 26th by eight points on the road. We have to assume the Sparks are laying it all on the line, or else why bother showing up? They hammered Dallas in their latest effort, but that’s nothing to write home about. Before that, Los Angeles dropped back-to-back games against Atlanta, who is currently just one game up on Phoenix in the standings. Point being, the Sparks do well against bottom-half teams but when it comes to the upper-echelon clubs, they struggle. The fact that Phoenix is still very much playing for something hinders the Sparks’ effort as well. The Mercury were surging before being upset by the Sun on Saturday. They know that loss is a big hit to their chances of moving up, but they also know they still have two games to play, and both are versus non-playoff sides. Winning out is the one thing they can control, and it starts here. Given the sting of their weekend loss, the Mercury should be laser-focused. They know how to handle the Los Angeles offense even when they’re going well. They let the Sparks shoot 47.7% from the field when they met in August and still managed to beat them by eight. Phoenix is 8-3 SU and 7-3 ATS in its last ten games against Los Angeles.
Take the Mercury giving the points.
Over/Under Pick for Sparks vs. Mercury
- Over 172.5 (4 units)
In their three meetings this season the two teams averaged a combined 172 points per game as they evened up, 1-1-1, against the total. Both sides have two games remaining and a lot on the line, so I am fully expecting both teams to come out gunning here. This matchup features two top offenses in terms of scoring and both are adept at shooting long range as well. The Phoenix offense cleared 90 points once in their last six games and it came against this Los Angeles defense, which has allowed at least 85 points in three of their last four games. The Sparks offense has tallied exactly 91 points in two of their last four games. The over is 2-1-1 in the last four games between these two teams, with both sides scored at least 80 points in each of those games.
Take the over.
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