Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Picks and Prediction, Monday, September 1, 2025
The WNBA is coming down to its final few weeks and Monday has a key matchup, so we’re dropping our Sparks vs. Storm predictions for you. Los Angeles (17-20 SU, 15-21-1 ATS) was edged out by Indiana on Friday, 76-75, as -2 favorites at home. Seattle (22-19 SU, 17-24 ATS) got by Chicago on Saturday, 79-69, as -10.5 favorites at home. This matchup tips at 10:00 EST from Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, and be sure to read more about tonight’s WNBA Predictions.
(This was published prior to the conclusion of Sunday’s games.)
Sparks slipping back of the pack
The Sparks had a game on Sunday with Washington to tend to, but prior to that they had lost two in a row and three of their last four games. Not the best plan of action for a team that was 2.5 games back of the final playoff spot. In Friday’s loss to the Fever, they scored 31 points in the first quarter, then no more than 17 in the remaining three. The offense shot 48.2% from the field, hitting eight three and 13 free throws. They were outrebounded, 40-30, and coughed up 22 turnovers. The defense held Indiana to 40.7% shooting but of the 16 turnovers they were able to force from them, the Sparks got just eight points.
Through 37 games, Los Angeles had the second-highest scoring offense in the league, averaging 86 points per game. They were shooting 46.2% from the field and 35.4% from beyond the arc, hitting 8.9 threes and 15.7 free throws a night. Their defense, however, is dead last in the league, giving up 88.3 points a game and opponents are shooting 45.7% against them. The Sparks defense is forcing 12.8 turnovers from foes while the offense is losing 14.6 turnovers per game. Los Angeles is 10th in the WNBA with 32.9 rebounds per game and their 20.8 assists had led to a 1.33 assist-to-turnover ratio.
Player notes
- Rickea Jackson scored only eight points on Friday but in the process reached the 1,000-career point mark in what was her 72nd
- After scoring a combined 16 points in her three prior games, Azura Stevens scored 17 on Friday night.
- Kelsey Plum, fourth in the league with 20.1 points per game, averaged 21.6 points over her last seven games.
- Rae Burrell came off the bench and scored 12 points in 19 minutes against the Fever, her highest output in 11 games.
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Storm surging at the right time
The Storm are getting hot at the right time, with a 2-0 SU week and having gone 5-1 SU over their last six games. They come into this week sitting seventh overall, but just one percentage point behind Indiana in sixth. Saturday’s win over Chicago saw the team score exactly 22 points in three of four quarters. They shot just 41.5% in the win but were a perfect 18-18 from the free throw line while also hitting seven threes. They got beat on the boards, 37-28, but their defense was stifling, keeping Chicago to 44.3% shooting and only one three-pointer. They also forced 22 turnovers from the Sky and parlayed that into 30 points.
Seattle ranks eighth in the WNBA in offensive scoring, averaging 82.4 points per game. The team is shooting 45.2% from the field, 34.1% from three-point range and 77.3% from the line. Opponents are averaging 79.9 points per game against the Storm, the fifth-best scoring defense in the league. Teams are also shooting 44.1% from the field against them, Seattle’s defense has countered with a league-best 15 turnovers per game. The team is dead last on the glass, grabbing only 31.1 rebounds per game, but they dish out 21.4 assists a night and they have a 1.75 assist-to-turnover ratio.
Player notes
- All five players scored in double digits in Saturday’s win and Erica Wheeler scored 11 points off the bench and has averaged three three pointers per game over her last three.
- Nneka Ogwumike scored 20 points against Chicago and is eighth in the league with an 18.2 points per game average.
- Skylar Diggins is third in the league with six assists per game and 15.6 points.
- Gabby Williams leads the WNBA with 2.3 steals and game and Ezi Magbegor is second with 2.1 blocks per game.
Pick:
Los Angeles +6 (4 units)
This is the fourth and final meeting of the season between the Western Conference foes. Los Angeles is 2-1 SU and ATS thus far in the series. These two teams are heading in opposite directions as we get down to crunch time. Los Angeles should be playing more desperately at this stage, and I would expect that panic is starting to kick in. They are 10-8 SU on the road this season, so maybe this is where they at least start putting in the effort. Their two straight up wins over the Storm came earlier this month, so they know that they matchup well against them. They need a boost of confidence here and that should help. Seattle is playing very well at the moment, but they are also coming off of a five-game road swing. At home, they are just 9-10 SU. Seattle is 7-3 SU over the last ten meetings, but Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. I think both hold true here.
Take the Sparks getting the points.
TOTAL
Over 174.5 (4 units)
The over hit in all three games thus far as the teams have combined to average 188 points per game. Both teams are averaging over 82 points per game and they are both Top 5 shooting teams in the league. The Sparks had one of their worst offensive efforts of the year on Friday, but they have a game on Sunday that should help them snap out of it before this one. In their last ten games, the Los Angeles offense scored 94 points or more on four occasions, hitting triple digits twice. Seattle’s offense scored 93 or more in three of their last six efforts. These two let it fly when they meet up, evident in the over going 8-2 in their last ten games.
Take the over.
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