Minnesota Lynx vs Connecticut Sun Picks and Prediction for Sunday September 20 2026

The Minnesota Lynx visit the Connecticut Sun at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut, on Sunday, September 20, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 1:00 PM ET with coverage available on WNBA League Pass and NBC Sports Boston. Minnesota enters the matchup at 31-10 overall and an impressive 17-3 on the road, while Connecticut is 10-31 overall and 7-13 at home. The season series is tied 1-1, with Connecticut winning the first meeting 90-89 before Minnesota answered with an 86-80 victory. DraftKings lists Minnesota as a 16.5-point favorite at -112, Connecticut +16.5 at -108, and the total at 167.5 with -110 on either side. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks for more WNBA predictions throughout the season.

Minnesota Looks to End Its Losing Streak

Minnesota owns the best record in the Western Conference at 31-10, but the Lynx enter Sunday trying to reverse a three-game losing streak. They most recently fell 93-81 at home and have also lost 89-81 and 80-66 during the current skid. Before those defeats, Minnesota had picked up consecutive road victories by scores of 94-84 and 77-66. Despite the recent downturn, the 17-3 road record remains one of the strongest numbers in this matchup.

The Lynx have averaged 91.0 points per game while allowing 83.7, producing a positive scoring differential of 7.3 points per contest. Minnesota is shooting an excellent 48% from the field while averaging 34.4 rebounds and 21.7 assists. Defensively, the Lynx contribute 8.9 steals and 4.6 blocks per game. Those numbers give Minnesota advantages over Connecticut in scoring, field-goal percentage, rebounding, assists and steals.

The concern for Minnesota at -16.5 is obvious: this is an enormous number for a team riding a three-game losing streak. Minnesota has also failed to dominate Connecticut in the two previous meetings, with those games decided by one and six points. The overall statistical matchup heavily favors the Lynx, but laying more than 16 points requires Minnesota not merely to win, but to produce a dramatically different margin from what it managed in either previous meeting.

Connecticut Tries to Stop a Four-Game Slide

Connecticut enters Sunday at 10-31 overall and has dropped four consecutive games. The Sun's most recent performance was particularly concerning, a 103-59 road loss that followed defeats of 97-71, 111-91 and 89-64. Connecticut's only victory across its last five games was an 87-81 home win. The Sun return to Mohegan Sun Arena with a 7-13 home record and already own a victory over Minnesota this season.

The statistical profile explains why Connecticut is such a substantial underdog. The Sun average only 78.5 points per game while surrendering 88.1, leaving them with a negative scoring differential of 9.6 points. Connecticut shoots 42% from the field and averages 32.4 rebounds, 19.0 assists, 4.5 blocks and 8.0 steals. Minnesota therefore owns a 12.5-point advantage in scoring average while also shooting six percentage points better from the floor.

Connecticut's biggest issue has been preventing games from getting away once its defense begins to break down. The Sun have allowed at least 89 points in each of their last four games, including 103 and 111 in two of those contests. That is dangerous against a Minnesota offense averaging 91.0 points. However, Connecticut's earlier results against the Lynx provide an important counterweight to the overall numbers. The Sun won one meeting outright and lost the other by only six, making the massive home-underdog spread difficult to ignore.

Minnesota Lynx vs Connecticut Sun Picks and Prediction

Pick: Connecticut Sun +16.5 (-108)

Minnesota is clearly the stronger team statistically, but Connecticut +16.5 offers the better side value at this number. The Lynx are coming off three consecutive losses and have already played Connecticut twice without coming remotely close to covering a 16.5-point margin, losing 90-89 and winning only 86-80. Connecticut's recent form is ugly, but the Sun are back home, where they are 7-13, and this spread gives them significant room even if Minnesota controls the game. Minnesota can rebound with a victory without necessarily winning by the 17 points required to cover.

Pick: Over 167.5 (-110)

The Over 167.5 gets the nod because Connecticut's recent defensive decline creates an opportunity for Minnesota's offense to produce a big number. The Sun have surrendered 103, 97, 111 and 89 points during their four-game losing streak, while Minnesota averages 91.0 points per game and shoots 48% from the field. Connecticut still averages 78.5 points itself, and those season scoring averages combine for 169.5 points. The previous meetings were lower scoring, but the Sun's recent inability to contain opponents shifts this matchup toward the Over at 167.5.

Final Picks: Connecticut Sun +16.5 (-108) and Over 167.5 (-110)