Minnesota Lynx vs Connecticut Sun Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, July 8, 2026
Use Code SSWC The Minnesota Lynx visit the Connecticut Sun on Wednesday, July 8, 2026, at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, CT, with tipoff set for 7:30 PM ET. The game will be shown on USA Net and Victory+ MIN. Minnesota is listed at -485 on the moneyline and -9.5 against the spread at -115, while Connecticut is +370 on the moneyline and +9.5 at -105. The total is set at 167.5, with the over priced at -115 and the under at -105. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks for more game predictions.
Minnesota Looks to Reclaim Control on the Road
Minnesota enters this matchup with a 15-6 overall record and a strong 9-2 road record. The Lynx have gone 2-3 over their last five games, recently losing to Connecticut 90-89, recently losing to New York 99-86, recently winning over Dallas 85-77, recently winning over Washington 78-76, and recently losing to Washington 84-79. That recent stretch has been uneven, but the overall record and road mark still give Minnesota a strong profile entering this matchup.
From a team-stat standpoint, Minnesota is averaging 90.2 points per game while allowing 80.8 points per game. The Lynx are shooting 48% from the field, averaging 36.5 rebounds, 21.5 assists, 5.0 blocks, and 8.8 steals per game. Those numbers show a team with a strong offensive base, efficient shooting, and enough defensive activity to impact the game in multiple ways.
The biggest edge for Minnesota is offensive efficiency. The Lynx are shooting 48% from the field and averaging 90.2 points per game, which gives them a clear scoring advantage over a Connecticut team averaging 80.0 points per game. Minnesota also holds the matchup predictor edge at 73.7%, which fits with the spread and the overall statistical gap between these teams.
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Connecticut Tries to Build on a Narrow Win
Connecticut comes into this game with a 5-16 overall record and a 3-8 home record. The Sun have gone 3-2 over their last five games, recently winning over Minnesota 90-89, recently losing to Dallas 86-83, recently winning over Washington 68-57, recently winning over Chicago 92-63, and recently losing to Toronto 101-97. That recent form has been more competitive, especially with the narrow win over Minnesota in the previous meeting.
Connecticut is averaging 80.0 points per game while allowing 86.7 points per game. The Sun are shooting 43% from the field, averaging 33.6 rebounds, 18.8 assists, 4.5 blocks, and 8.4 steals per game. The defensive numbers have not been enough to prevent opponents from scoring consistently, but Connecticut has shown in the recent results that it can still produce competitive games.
The key strength for Connecticut is the ability to create defensive activity. The Sun average 8.4 steals and 4.5 blocks per game, which gives them a chance to disrupt possessions. However, the major concern is the scoring margin created by averaging 80.0 points while allowing 86.7 points. Against a Minnesota team averaging 90.2 points, that gap is difficult to ignore.
Minnesota Lynx vs Connecticut Sun Picks and Prediction
Minnesota Lynx vs Connecticut Sun Pick
- Pick: Minnesota Lynx -9.5
I’m taking Minnesota to cover the spread. The Lynx have the better overall record at 15-6, the stronger road record at 9-2, and the better season numbers on both ends. Minnesota averages 90.2 points while Connecticut averages 80.0, and the Lynx also allow fewer points per game. Connecticut did recently win this matchup by one point, but the overall data still points toward Minnesota having the stronger full-game profile.
Minnesota Lynx vs Connecticut Sun Total Pick
- Pick: Over 167.5
I’m taking the over 167.5. Minnesota is averaging 90.2 points per game, and Connecticut is allowing 86.7 points per game. The recent meeting between these teams finished 90-89, which cleared this number, and Connecticut’s last five results have included several games with strong combined scoring. With Minnesota’s offense ranking well in the provided numbers, I lean toward this matchup getting over the total.
Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Lynx 91 – Connecticut Sun 80
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