Minnesota Lynx vs New York Liberty Picks and Prediction for Friday July 3 2026
Use Code SSWC The Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty meet on Friday, July 3, 2026, at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET, with coverage available on ION and WNBA League Pass. Minnesota enters the matchup as a -142 moneyline favorite, while New York is listed at +120. The Lynx are favored by 2.5 points, and the total is set at 173.5 points. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks.
Minnesota Looks to Keep Its Strong Road Form Rolling
Minnesota brings a 15-4 overall record into this contest and has been outstanding away from home with a 9-1 road mark. The Lynx have won four of their last five games, recently defeating Dallas, Washington, Los Angeles, and Golden State while their lone setback during that stretch came at home against Washington. Their recent success has helped them maintain one of the league's best overall records heading into this challenging road matchup.
The Lynx have been one of the most productive offensive teams this season, averaging 90.5 points per game while allowing just 79.3 points. They are shooting an impressive 49 percent from the field while averaging 37.0 rebounds and 21.3 assists per contest. Defensively, Minnesota has contributed 5.1 blocks and 9.1 steals per game, giving the team production on both ends of the floor.
One of Minnesota's biggest strengths has been its balanced statistical profile. The Lynx own advantages in scoring, scoring defense, field goal percentage, rebounding, assists, blocks, and steals compared to New York's season averages. That combination has helped them consistently control games throughout the season.
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New York Aims to Defend Home Court
New York enters Friday's contest with a 12-8 overall record and is 6-4 at home this season. The Liberty have alternated wins and losses over their last five games, recently defeating Las Vegas and previously earning another road victory over the Aces. They also dropped games against Golden State, Seattle, and Los Angeles during that stretch, making consistency an important focus entering this matchup.
The Liberty are averaging 87.8 points per game while giving up 83.5 points defensively. They are shooting 46 percent from the field and average 34.6 rebounds along with 20.7 assists per game. On the defensive side, New York averages 4.0 blocks and 6.1 steals each contest.
New York's offense has still been productive despite some recent uneven results, averaging nearly 88 points per game. However, the Liberty trail Minnesota in several major statistical categories, including field goal percentage, rebounding, assists, blocks, and steals, making efficiency an important factor if they hope to pull off the home upset.
Minnesota Lynx vs New York Liberty Picks and Prediction
Minnesota Lynx vs New York Liberty Pick
- Pick: Minnesota Lynx -2.5
Minnesota enters this game with the stronger overall record, the better road record, and a statistical edge across nearly every major team category. The Lynx are averaging more points while allowing fewer, and they have also been the more efficient shooting team throughout the season. ESPN's matchup predictor gives New York the edge, but based strictly on the season numbers provided, Minnesota has built the stronger overall profile. I'll take the Lynx to cover the small road spread.
Minnesota Lynx vs New York Liberty Total Pick
- Pick: Over 173.5
I'm taking the over in this matchup. Minnesota averages 90.5 points per game while New York scores 87.8, giving both teams the ability to contribute offensively. Even though Minnesota has played well defensively, the combined scoring averages suggest this total is reachable, especially with both offenses capable of putting points on the board.
Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Lynx 90 – New York Liberty 84
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