Minnesota Lynx vs New York Liberty Picks and Prediction for Tuesday September 29 2026

The Minnesota Lynx visit the New York Liberty at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York, on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, for Game 2 of their first-round playoff series. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30 PM ET with coverage on USA Network and CNBC. Minnesota enters at 33-11 overall and 18-4 on the road, while New York is 26-18 overall and 14-8 at home. The Liberty lead the best-of-three series 1-0 after stunning the top-seeded Lynx 91-75 in Minnesota on Sunday. DraftKings has Minnesota as a 2.5-point road favorite at -115 after opening at -1.5, while New York is +2.5 at -105. The Lynx are -148 on the moneyline and the Liberty are +124. The total is currently 172.5 with -110 juice on both sides. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks for more WNBA predictions throughout the playoffs.

Lynx Face Elimination After a Stunning Game 1 Loss

Minnesota finished the regular season with the WNBA's best record at 33-11 and went an outstanding 18-4 on the road, but the Lynx now find themselves one defeat away from elimination. Sunday's 91-75 loss was particularly surprising because it came on Minnesota's home floor. The Lynx have now lost three of their last five games, including two defeats against New York.

Game 1 exposed several problems. Minnesota shot only 42% from the field and 35% from three-point range while being outrebounded 38-23. The Lynx managed just five offensive rebounds and recorded only four steals. They protected the basketball relatively well with 13 turnovers, but that advantage was wasted because New York's shooting and rebounding were so much better.

Minnesota also struggled badly after halftime. The Lynx led 44-40 at the break but were outscored 51-31 over the final two quarters, including 26-15 in the fourth. That inability to close is especially concerning because Minnesota had already lost 93-81 to New York on September 18. The Lynx now need to reverse a matchup that New York has controlled twice in less than two weeks.

Liberty Have Another Opportunity to Knock Off the Top Seed

New York finished only 26-18 during the regular season, but its recent performances against Minnesota tell a much different story than the standings. The Liberty have beaten the Lynx twice in their last three games, winning those matchups by 12 and 16 points. New York now returns to Barclays Center needing one victory to advance.

The Liberty were outstanding offensively in Game 1, shooting 51% from the floor and an exceptional 52% from three-point range. New York made 13 three-pointers, recorded 25 assists and grabbed 38 rebounds. The Liberty also produced 10 steals and six blocked shots, allowing them to overcome 19 turnovers and still win comfortably.

New York's shooting efficiency will be difficult to duplicate, particularly from beyond the arc, but its rebounding advantage is more sustainable and potentially more important. The Liberty grabbed 15 more rebounds than Minnesota despite playing on the road. New York also entered this matchup averaging 35.5 rebounds compared with Minnesota's 34.5. If the Liberty can continue controlling possessions and avoid giving Minnesota easy transition opportunities, they have an excellent chance to remain competitive as home underdogs.

Minnesota Lynx vs New York Liberty Picks and Prediction

Pick: New York Liberty +2.5 (-105)

Minnesota owns the superior regular-season record and faces elimination, but the current matchup favors taking the points with New York. The Liberty didn't simply steal Game 1 late—they won by 16 after controlling the second half and dominating the glass. New York has now beaten Minnesota twice in less than two weeks by double-digit margins, yet the Liberty are receiving 2.5 points on their home floor. Minnesota's 18-4 road record makes this far from an automatic play, but the burden is on the Lynx to demonstrate they can solve a New York team that has repeatedly caused problems for them. Take the Liberty +2.5.

Pick: Under 172.5 (-110)

Game 1 finished with only 166 combined points despite New York shooting 51% overall and an extraordinary 52% from three. That is significant because the Liberty could experience substantial shooting regression and still remain competitive defensively. Minnesota scored only 75 in Game 1 and 81 in the September 18 loss to New York, while the Lynx are now facing the pressure of an elimination game. Minnesota should place greater emphasis on controlling possessions, defending the perimeter and preventing another high-efficiency New York performance. With the total increasing to 172.5 after Game 1 stayed under that number, the under offers the stronger position.

Final Picks: New York Liberty +2.5 (-105) and Under 172.5 (-110)