Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury, Picks and Prediction for Sunday, September 28, 2025

The Minnesota Lynx are heading to PHX Arena on Sunday night to battle against the Phoenix Mercury in Game 4 of the WNBA Semifinals for our Lynx vs. Mercury prediction. The Mercury were able to win Game 3 in their own building 84-76 in Game 3 to give themselves a 2-1 series lead and now are one game away from a WNBA Finals appearance. Fast, focused, useful: WNBA predictions for Phoenix/New York winner vs. Minnesota.

Lynx Looking to Force Game 5

The Minnesota Lynx are looking to recover from their 84-76 Game 3 road loss against the Phoenix Mercury. The Lynx shot 30-of-71 (42.3%) overall, 6-of-24 (25.0%) from beyond the arc, and 10-of-11 (90.9%) from the charity stripe. Guard Natisha Hiedman played well off the bench as in 23 minutes, she recorded 19 points, two rebounds, three assists, and two steals. The defense had an okay showing in the loss for Minnesota as they allowed Phoenix to shoot 46.2% throughout the game, 33.3% from distance, and 81.8% from the free-throw line.

Minnesota has been an excellent offensive team as they are second in basketball with 83.4 points per game in the playoffs. The Lynx stepped up on the defensive side of the court as they are fourth with 77.6 points per game allowed.

Injury Report for Minnesota

• Forward Napheesa Collier: Ankle (OUT)
• Guard DiJonai Carrington: Foot (OUT)
• Guard Aubrey Griffin: Knee (OUT)
• Forward Dorka Juhasz: Not Injury Related (OUT)

Mercury One Win Away From WNBA Finals

The Phoenix Mercury stepped up in the fourth quarter in Game 4 of the WNBA Semifinals at home with an 84-76 win against the Minnesota Lynx. The Mercury shot the basketball at a solid rate as they were 30-of-65 (46.2%) from the floor, 6-of-18 (33.3%) from three, and 18-of-22 (81.8%) from the free-throw line. Forward Satou Sabally led the way with 23 points, four rebounds, and three turnovers in 30 minutes of action. The defense struggled a bit as Minnesota had a team shooting split of 42.3/25.0/81.8.

The Mercury have done a great job offensively in the postseason thus far as they are third in the WNBA with 79.3 points per game. The defense performed at an excellent level as they are best with 75.0 points per game against.

Injury Report for Phoenix

• Guard Julia Ayrault: Personal (OUT)
• Guard Helena Pueyo: Personal (OUT)

Minnesota vs. Phoenix Pick

Spread Pick for Minnesota vs. Phoenix

• Phoenix Mercury -190 (4 units)

The Minnesota Lynx are going to be behind the eight-ball outside of the obvious elimination aspect. Coach Cheryl Reeve is suspended for Game 4 for her “conduct and comments” during and after Game 3. It was also announced that Napheesa Collier is going to miss this game with an ankle injury after being the team’s best offensive player. Phoenix has the momentum in this series after winning the fourth quarter of Game 3 21-9. Minnesota looked like Game 3 was the end of their season so take the Phoenix Mercury to record the win and advance to the WNBA Finals.

Over/Under Pick for Minnesota vs. Phoenix

• OVER 155.5 (4 units)

While losing Collier for this game may not look like a great chance for the over, she was terrible through the first three games in the fourth quarter. Now, we do not have to worry about that being the case, as she is ruled out. Both teams draw fouls and attempt a lot of threes, so there are going to be chances for points to be scored. Go with OVER 155.5 POINTS in this game as the better bet here.