Minnesota Lynx vs Toronto Tempo Picks and Prediction for Thursday, July 30, 2026
The Minnesota Lynx visit the Toronto Tempo at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, on Thursday, July 30, 2026, with tipoff scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET. Prime Video, TSN, and Victory+ will provide television coverage. Minnesota enters as a -720 moneyline favorite, while Toronto is priced at +493. The Lynx are favored by 11.5 points at -110, with the Tempo getting 11.5 points at -110. The total is 184.5, with both the over and under priced at -110. Minnesota owns a 23-6 overall record and a 12-2 road mark, while Toronto stands at 10-17 overall and 6-10 at home. ESPN Analytics gives the Lynx a 66.1% chance of winning, compared with 33.9% for the Tempo. Be sure to check out our free WNBA Picks.
Previous Game Recap & Box Score
Minnesota and Toronto met on July 28, with the Lynx earning a 100-93 victory at home. The 193 combined points comfortably exceeded the total posted for Thursday’s rematch, while Toronto’s seven-point defeat was considerably closer than the current 11.5-point spread. The result extended Minnesota’s winning streak to five games and gave the Lynx another offensive performance of at least 100 points. Toronto reached 93 points despite losing, producing its highest scoring total across its last five games. Thursday’s meeting changes locations, with the Tempo returning to Scotiabank Arena and Minnesota taking its strong road record into Toronto.
Minnesota Carries Its Winning Form Across the Border
The Lynx are 23-6 overall and 12-2 away from home. Minnesota has won each of its last five games, most recently defeating Toronto 100-93. That victory followed road wins of 86-76 and 105-102 over Seattle, along with home victories of 101-93 over Portland and 96-87 over Los Angeles. The Lynx scored at least 96 points in four of those five contests, and their only game below that level during the stretch still resulted in a 10-point victory.
Minnesota averages 91.8 points while allowing 83.2 points per game. The Lynx shoot 48% from the field and average 35.3 rebounds and 21.7 assists. Their defensive production includes 4.9 blocks and 9.0 steals per game. Minnesota holds the advantage over Toronto in every supplied team-stat category, including scoring, points allowed, field-goal percentage, rebounding, assists, blocks, and steals.
The most significant Minnesota strength is the balance between efficient offense and lower scoring allowed. The Lynx average 3.1 more points than the Tempo while surrendering 10 fewer points per game. Their 48% field-goal percentage is three percentage points higher, and their rebounding average is four boards better. That statistical balance supports Minnesota’s status as the substantial moneyline favorite, especially when combined with its 12-2 road record and five consecutive victories.
Toronto Searches for a Home-Court Response
The Tempo enter the rematch at 10-17 overall with a 6-10 record at Scotiabank Arena. Toronto has lost four consecutive games, most recently falling 100-93 at Minnesota. Before that defeat, the Tempo lost 109-83 to Las Vegas, 111-92 to Atlanta, and 79-62 to Washington. Their lone victory across the last five games was a 93-91 home result over New York.
Toronto averages 88.7 points while allowing 93.2 points per game. The Tempo shoot 45% from the field and average 31.3 rebounds, 20.0 assists, 3.2 blocks, and 7.2 steals. Their offense has shown a wide scoring range over the past five games, producing 62 points at the low end and 93 points twice at the high end.
The clearest concern for Toronto is its 93.2 points allowed per game. The Tempo are surrendering 4.5 more points than they score on average, and they have allowed at least 100 points in three of their last four games. That becomes particularly important against a Minnesota team averaging 91.8 points and coming off a 100-point performance in the first meeting. Toronto did keep that game within seven points, but its season-long defensive average remains the main obstacle in the rematch.
Minnesota Lynx vs Toronto Tempo Picks and Prediction
Minnesota Lynx vs Toronto Tempo Pick
- Pick: Minnesota Lynx -11.5
Minnesota is the preferred side based on its 23-6 overall record, 12-2 road mark, and five-game winning streak. The Lynx have advantages in all seven supplied team-stat categories and are allowing 10 fewer points per game than Toronto. The Tempo covered this number in the 100-93 meeting on July 28, but Minnesota’s broader statistical profile supports the favorite. I expect the Lynx’s scoring efficiency, rebounding advantage, and stronger defensive average to create more separation in the rematch.
Minnesota Lynx vs Toronto Tempo Total Pick
- Pick: Over 184.5
I am taking the over because these teams combined for 193 points two days earlier, and both reached at least 93 in that matchup. Minnesota has scored 100 or more in three of its last four games, while Toronto has allowed at least 100 in three of its last four. Their season averages produce a Minnesota-based scoring projection of 185 points when its offense is paired with Toronto’s scoring average. With Minnesota averaging 91.8 and Toronto allowing 93.2, the available numbers point toward another high-scoring contest.
Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Lynx 101 – Toronto Tempo 89