New York Liberty vs Los Angeles Sparks Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, July 28, 2026
The New York Liberty visit the Los Angeles Sparks at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California, on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET, with coverage available through WNBA League Pass, WWOR-TV, and two additional outlets. New York is a 4.5-point favorite and is listed at -187 on the moneyline, while Los Angeles is priced at +153. The total is set at 183.5 points. The Liberty enter the matchup at 15-12 overall and 7-7 on the road, while the Sparks are 10-16 overall and 5-8 at home. ESPN Analytics gives New York a 54.8% chance to win, compared with 45.2% for Los Angeles. Before wagering on Tuesday’s matchup, be sure to check out our free WNBA Picks.
New York Seeks a Third Consecutive Victory
New York enters Tuesday’s game with a 15-12 overall record and an even 7-7 mark away from home. The Liberty have won their last two games after losing the previous three. They recently won over Chicago 95-94 and defeated Dallas 99-98 in overtime. New York previously lost to Indiana 108-88, Toronto 93-91, and Minnesota 90-85. Four of the Liberty’s last five games were decided by five points or fewer, including consecutive one-point victories.
The Liberty average 88.5 points per game while allowing 86.2 points. New York shoots 45% from the field and averages 34.7 rebounds, 20.1 assists, 4.2 blocks, and 6.0 steals per contest. The Liberty hold advantages over Los Angeles in scoring, points allowed, rebounding, and blocks. However, the Sparks shoot one percentage point better while averaging more assists and steals.
New York’s most important statistical strength is its combination of rebounding and scoring defense. The Liberty average 3.5 more rebounds than the Sparks and allow 7.1 fewer points per game. Those differences help New York maintain a positive average scoring margin of 2.3 points, while Los Angeles is being outscored by five points per contest. The Liberty’s recent games have remained close, but their ability to win consecutive one-point decisions gives them positive momentum entering another potentially competitive matchup.
Los Angeles Tries to Halt Its Five-Game Slide
Los Angeles returns to Crypto.com Arena with a 10-16 overall record and a 5-8 record at home. The Sparks have lost five consecutive games, most recently falling to Phoenix 86-82. They previously lost to Dallas 90-82, Chicago 96-82, Minnesota 96-87, and Atlanta 101-92. Los Angeles scored at least 82 points in every game during that stretch, but it also surrendered at least 86 points in all five defeats.
The Sparks average 88.3 points per game while allowing 93.3 points. Los Angeles shoots 46% from the field and averages 31.2 rebounds, 20.9 assists, 3.2 blocks, and 7.5 steals per contest. The Sparks’ scoring average is only 0.2 points below New York’s, and they hold advantages of 0.8 assists and 1.5 steals. Their primary statistical disadvantages appear in rebounding, blocks, and points allowed.
Los Angeles’ most significant weakness is its defensive production. The Sparks allow 93.3 points per game, and four of their last five opponents scored at least 90. New York has scored 95 and 99 points in its two most recent victories, creating a difficult matchup for a Los Angeles defense that has struggled to control opponents. The Sparks remain capable of producing points, but their five-game losing streak shows that their offensive output has not been enough to overcome what they have surrendered defensively.
New York Liberty vs Los Angeles Sparks Picks and Prediction
New York Liberty vs Los Angeles Sparks Pick
- Pick: New York Liberty -4.5
New York is the preferred side at -4.5. The Liberty own the better overall record, have won two consecutive games, and possess the stronger average scoring margin. Los Angeles has lost five straight contests and has allowed at least 86 points in every game during that stretch. New York also holds meaningful advantages in points allowed and rebounding while entering with a 54.8% matchup-predictor advantage. The Liberty’s recent wins have been narrow, but the Sparks lost four of their last five games by at least eight points. That supports New York laying the 4.5 points.
New York Liberty vs Los Angeles Sparks Total Pick
- Pick: Under 183.5
I am taking the under 183.5. New York and Los Angeles combine to average 176.8 points per game, which is 6.7 points below the listed total. Four of New York’s last five games finished below 183.5 points, with the lone exception being the 197-point overtime result against Dallas. Three of Los Angeles’ last five contests also remained below the total. The Sparks’ defensive average creates some over concern, but the combined scoring production and recent results provide stronger support for the under.
Final Score Prediction: New York Liberty 94 – Los Angeles Sparks 87