New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx Picks and Prediction for Friday September 18 2026

The New York Liberty visit the Minnesota Lynx at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on Friday, September 18, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET with coverage on ION and WNBA League Pass. New York enters at 24-16 overall and 10-10 on the road, while Minnesota owns the league's better record at 31-9 overall and is 14-6 at home. The Liberty enter off an 85-66 victory, while the Lynx have dropped two straight. The season series is tied 1-1, with New York winning 99-86 at home before Minnesota answered with a 90-85 victory at Target Center. Minnesota is currently a 7.5-point favorite at -102, with New York +7.5 at -118. The total is 176.5, with both sides priced at -110, while Minnesota is -265 on the moneyline and New York +215. Make sure you are ready for all the WNBA action with our free WNBA picks.

New York Looks for Another Statement Win

New York enters Friday at 24-16 and has played exactly .500 basketball away from home at 10-10. The Liberty average 89.8 points per game while allowing 86.9, giving them a positive scoring differential of 2.9 points per contest. They shoot 46% from the field while averaging 35.3 rebounds, 20.8 assists, 4.2 blocks and 6.1 steals. Those numbers paint the picture of a balanced team, although New York faces a significant defensive challenge against a Minnesota offense averaging 91.3 points.

The Liberty have gone 3-2 over their last five games, with victories of 82-75, 109-102 and 85-66 surrounding losses of 93-86 and 79-60. New York scored 422 points during those five games, an average of 84.4, while allowing 415 for an average of 83.0. The most encouraging performance was the latest one, as the Liberty held their opponent to only 66 points and won by 19 after suffering a 19-point defeat in their previous game.

New York has already demonstrated that it can compete with Minnesota. The Liberty won the first meeting 99-86, scoring well above their season average and winning by 13. Minnesota responded at home with a 90-85 victory, but New York stayed within five points at Target Center. That previous result becomes particularly important with the Liberty now receiving 7.5 points. New York does not necessarily need to duplicate its first head-to-head victory to provide value against this spread.

Minnesota Has the Defensive Advantage

Minnesota brings a 31-9 record into this matchup and has been particularly strong at Target Center, where it is 14-6. The Lynx average 91.3 points while surrendering only 83.4, creating an impressive positive scoring differential of 7.9 points per game. Minnesota also shoots 48% from the field and averages 34.3 rebounds, 21.7 assists, 4.6 blocks and 8.9 steals. The Lynx hold advantages over New York in scoring, field-goal percentage, assists, blocks, steals and points allowed.

There is one potential concern: Minnesota enters on consecutive losses. The Lynx have gone 3-2 over their last five, beating Las Vegas 92-87, Golden State 77-66 and Washington 94-84 before losing 80-66 at home and 89-81 on the road. Minnesota has averaged 82.0 points over those five games, considerably below its 91.3 season average. Defensively, however, the Lynx surrendered only 81.2 points per game during the same stretch.

Minnesota's defense is the biggest matchup advantage. New York has scored just 60 and 85 points in two of its last three games, while the Lynx have held three of their last five opponents to 80 points or fewer. Minnesota also held New York to 85 in their previous meeting at Target Center. The question from a betting perspective is whether that defensive edge is enough to justify laying 7.5 points against a Liberty team that has already beaten Minnesota once and stayed within five in its previous trip to Minneapolis.

New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx Picks and Prediction

Pick: New York Liberty +7.5 (-118)

Minnesota has the superior season record and stronger overall statistical profile, but 7.5 points provides New York with meaningful protection in a matchup that has already produced one win for each team. The Liberty beat Minnesota by 13 in New York and lost by only five in the previous meeting at Target Center. Minnesota has also lost consecutive games and has averaged only 73.5 points during those two defeats. New York's 10-10 road record is respectable, and the Liberty are coming off an impressive 19-point victory. Minnesota deserves to be favored at home, but the supplied results suggest that New York is capable of keeping the margin inside three possessions. Take the 7.5 points with the Liberty.

Pick: Under 176.5 (-110)

The Under has the stronger statistical case. Minnesota allows only 83.4 points per game, and its last five contests have produced combined totals of 179, 143, 178, 146 and 170 points. New York's last five have finished at 157, 179, 211, 139 and 151. The second head-to-head meeting finished 90-85 for 175 total points, already landing below Friday's 176.5, and both teams have recently shown the ability to win through defense. Minnesota has allowed only 81.2 points per game over its last five, while New York has allowed 83.0. With both offenses also performing below their full-season scoring averages recently, Under 176.5 offers the better position.

Final Picks: New York Liberty +7.5 (-118) and Under 176.5 (-110)