New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx Picks and Prediction for July 11, 2026
Use Code SSWC The New York Liberty will visit the Minnesota Lynx on Saturday, July 11, 2026, at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Tipoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET, with national television coverage on ABC. New York enters the matchup with a 13-9 record and a 6-4 mark on the road, while Minnesota is 16-6 overall and 6-4 at home. The Liberty are listed as 1.5-point underdogs at -108 with a +130 moneyline, while the Lynx are 1.5-point favorites at -112 and -155 on the moneyline. The total is set at 172.5 points, with both the over and under priced at -110. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks.
New York Brings Proven Scoring Power on the Road
The Liberty are 13-9 overall and 6-4 away from home. Over their last five games, they have posted a 2-3 record. New York recently lost to Dallas 88-77, but before that defeat, it earned consecutive wins over Minnesota and Las Vegas. The Liberty defeated the Lynx 99-86 and followed that performance with a 93-85 victory over Las Vegas. Their other two games in this stretch were road losses to Golden State, 76-67, and Seattle, 99-88.
New York averages 87.8 points per game while shooting 46% from the field. The Liberty also collect 34.5 rebounds and distribute 20.7 assists per contest. Defensively, they allow 83.8 points per game while averaging 4.1 blocks and 6.0 steals. Those numbers show a team that is capable of producing efficiently on offense while also maintaining a respectable defensive scoring average.
One of New York’s clearest strengths is its ability to generate points. The Liberty have scored at least 88 points in three of their last five games, including 99 in the previous meeting with Minnesota. Their 46% field-goal rate supports that production, and their 20.7 assists per game indicate that the offense can create scoring opportunities through ball movement. The concern is that New York has also allowed 99 points in one of its recent losses and gave up 88 in another, making defensive consistency an important factor in this matchup.
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Minnesota’s Two-Way Numbers Create a Difficult Challenge
The Lynx enter this game at 16-6 overall and 6-4 at Target Center. Minnesota has gone 3-2 across its last five games. The Lynx recently won over Connecticut 86-80 after narrowly losing to the same opponent 90-89. Before those games, Minnesota lost 99-86 at New York. The Lynx also recorded road victories over Dallas, 85-77, and Washington, 78-76.
Minnesota is averaging 90.0 points per game, the higher scoring figure in this matchup. The Lynx are shooting 48% from the field while averaging 36.3 rebounds and 21.5 assists. Their defensive statistics are also impressive, as they allow only 80.7 points per contest while averaging 5.1 blocks and 8.8 steals. Minnesota holds the statistical advantage over New York in every listed team category.
The Lynx’s biggest strength is their balance between offensive efficiency and defensive pressure. Minnesota averages 2.2 more points per game than New York while allowing 3.1 fewer points. The Lynx also shoot two percentage points better from the field and average more rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals. That complete statistical profile helps explain why Minnesota owns the better record and is favored at home.
New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx Picks and Prediction
New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx Pick
- Pick: Minnesota Lynx -1.5
Minnesota is the preferred side because the Lynx hold the stronger overall statistical profile and will be playing at home. They have the better record at 16-6, average 90.0 points per game, and allow only 80.7. New York is dangerous enough to keep the game competitive, especially after defeating Minnesota 99-86 in the previous meeting, but the Lynx lead the Liberty in field-goal percentage, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals. The matchup predictor also gives Minnesota a 53.0% chance of winning. With the spread set at only 1.5 points, I expect the Lynx to do enough on both ends of the floor to secure the victory and cover the short number.
New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx Total Pick
- Pick: Over 172.5
I am taking the over because both teams carry strong scoring averages into this matchup. Minnesota scores 90.0 points per game, while New York averages 87.8, producing a combined offensive average of 177.8 points. Their previous meeting also finished with 185 total points when New York won 99-86. The Lynx have reached at least 85 points in four of their last five games, while the Liberty have scored 88 or more three times during the same span. Even with Minnesota allowing only 80.7 points per game, the offensive numbers from both sides make the over at 172.5 the stronger total play.
Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Lynx 90 – New York Liberty 86
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