New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx Picks and Prediction for Sunday September 27 2026

The New York Liberty visit the Minnesota Lynx at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on Sunday, September 27, 2026, for Game 1 of their first-round WNBA playoff series. Tipoff is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET with national coverage on ABC. New York finished the regular season 26-18 overall and 12-10 on the road, while Minnesota went 33-11 overall with a 15-7 home record. The Lynx finished with the best record in the Western Conference, while the Liberty finished fourth in the Eastern Conference. Minnesota enters as a 6.5-point favorite with the total set at 173.5. Keep up with all the WNBA playoff action with our free WNBA picks.

Liberty Look to Carry Their Recent Success Against Minnesota Into the Playoffs

New York finished the regular season averaging 89.6 points per game while shooting 46% from the field. The Liberty averaged 35.5 rebounds and 20.8 assists per game while adding 6.1 steals and 4.2 blocks. Those numbers give New York a balanced statistical profile, and its scoring average finished only 1.2 points below Minnesota's despite the seven-game difference between the teams in the standings.

Recent form has been much less consistent. New York enters the postseason after consecutive losses to Atlanta, falling 83-65 and 95-84. Before those defeats, the Liberty had won three straight games, including a 106-69 road blowout against Toronto and, more importantly for this matchup, a 93-81 road victory over Minnesota on September 18. New York therefore enters Game 1 already knowing it can win at Target Center.

Availability is a major concern for New York entering the postseason. The Liberty have multiple players listed out, including significant contributors in the frontcourt. Without getting into individual personnel, that could have a meaningful impact on New York's rebounding, interior scoring and overall offensive efficiency. The Liberty averaged 35.5 rebounds per game during the season, but maintaining that advantage against Minnesota with a reduced rotation becomes more difficult.

Lynx Bring the Better Overall Record Into Game 1

Minnesota finished 33-11 overall and 15-7 at Target Center while averaging 90.8 points per game. The Lynx shot 48% from the field, averaged 34.5 rebounds and produced 21.9 assists per game. Defensively, Minnesota averaged 8.7 steals and 4.5 blocks, giving the Lynx noticeable advantages over New York in shooting percentage, assists, steals and blocks.

The Lynx have gone 2-3 over their last five games, but they closed the regular season with an impressive 86-66 victory over Indiana. Minnesota previously lost 96-77 in the same matchup after beating Connecticut 101-89. One of the most relevant results came on September 18, when New York walked into Target Center and defeated Minnesota 93-81. That result provides a clear warning against assuming that Minnesota's superior overall record automatically translates into an easy Game 1.

Minnesota also enters with an important absence of its own, meaning neither side will necessarily have its ideal postseason rotation. Even so, the Lynx finished seven games better than New York and were more efficient offensively, shooting 48% compared with 46%. Minnesota's defensive activity could be especially important. The Lynx averaged 8.7 steals compared with 6.1 for New York, which could create additional transition opportunities in a game where both teams may need time to adjust to postseason rotations.

New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx Picks and Prediction

Pick: New York Liberty +6.5

Minnesota deserves to be favored at home after finishing 33-11, but 6.5 points provides enough value to take New York. The Liberty averaged 89.6 points compared with Minnesota's 90.8, held a slight rebounding advantage and already won 93-81 at Target Center on September 18. Minnesota should benefit from the home floor and owns advantages in shooting efficiency, assists and defensive activity, but the personnel absences on both sides introduce enough uncertainty to make laying nearly seven points difficult. New York does not necessarily need to repeat its outright road victory to cover this number, and +6.5 provides useful protection in what should be a much more competitive matchup than the teams' overall records might initially suggest.

Pick: Under 173.5

The regular-season scoring averages point toward a higher-scoring matchup, but 173.5 is a substantial playoff total and recent results provide reasons to look under. New York scored only 65 points in its regular-season finale, while Minnesota held its final opponent to 66. The teams also enter Game 1 with important rotation absences, which could affect offensive efficiency and continuity. Minnesota's defensive activity gives it the ability to disrupt possessions, and Game 1 of a playoff series can produce a more deliberate half-court approach than the regular-season scoring averages suggest. With the market already accounting for the offensive capabilities of both teams, Under 173.5 is the preferred total.

Final Picks: New York Liberty +6.5 and Under 173.5