New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction for Friday, September 19, 2025
The New York Liberty (27-17), the fifth-seed in the WNBA Playoffs, are set to face off against the Phoenix Mercury (27-17), the WNBA’s fourth-seed, on September 19th at 9:00 PM ET at the PHX Arena in WNBA Playoffs First Round Game 3 action as we look at the Liberty vs. Mercury prediction. The Mercury were able to secure an 86-60 road win in Game 2 to force this winner-takes-all Game 3. The winner of this game will advance to face the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx in the semifinals, while the loser goes home. On the court: WNBA predictions for New York Liberty vs the Phoenix Mercury with recent form.
Liberty Looking to Advance
The New York Liberty lost in Game 2 of the first round of the playoffs as they are coming off an 86-60 home loss to allow this Game 3 to happen. It is difficult to win games when New York scored 23 points in the second half.
On offense, New York manages to score an average of 68.0 points per game in the postseason. Shooting accuracy stands at 36.3% from the field and 27.1% from the 3-point line, with a free-throw percentage of 64.7%. The offense went through guard Natasha Cloud as she is averaging 15.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2.0 steals per game during the year.
Defensively, the Liberty have been struggling a bit, giving up 77.5 points per game with opponents shooting 39.9% from the field and 26.0% from beyond the arc.
Injury Report for New York
- Center Raquel Carrera: Personal (OUT)
- Guard Ivana Dojkic: Not Injury Related (OUT)
- Guard Betnijah Laney-Hamilton: Knee (OUT)
- Forward Seehia Ridard: Personal (OUT)
- Forward Annika Soltau: Not Injury Related (OUT)
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Mercury Looking to Win the Series
The Phoenix Mercury were able to step up in Game 2 of the first round of their WNBA Playoffs against the New York Liberty, an 86-60 road win. Phoenix stepped up as they only committed nine turnovers in the game to make sure they were limiting the mistakes on the court.
Offensively, the Mercury are averaging 77.5 points per game. The efficiency is notable, with a field goal percentage of 39.9 and a 3-point percentage of 26.0. At the free-throw line, they have stepped up as they had an 85.7% success rate while doing an excellent job with their rebounds per game, finishing at 35.0. This offensive depth has been led by forward Alyssa Thomas with her 14.5 points and 7.5 assists per game in the playoffs.
Defensively, Phoenix have dominated thus far as they are conceding 68.0 points per game. Opponents have shot at a poor level against them, with a field goal percentage allowed of 36.3% and a 3-point percentage that allowed the opposition to connect on 27.1%.
Injury Report for Phoenix
- Guard Julia Ayrault: Personal (OUT)
- Guard Helena Pueyo: Personal (OUT)
Liberty vs. Mercury Pick
Spread Pick for Liberty vs. Mercury
- Phoenix Mercury -140 (5 units)
The Phoenix Mercury almost won Game 1 as the game went to overtime and then dominated in Game 2, so they certainly have the advantage for Game 3. The turnover percentage shows a significant difference as the Liberty is last with a 22.1 turnover percentage, while the Mercury is fourth with a 16.2 turnover percentage up to this point. The Liberty are now 11-12 on the road when factoring in the playoff game. All in all, go with the Phoenix Mercury to win and advance to the semifinals.
Over/Under Pick for Liberty vs. Mercury
- Under 155.5 (4 units)
These offenses have been poor at grabbing offensive rebounds as New York is fourth with a 30.0 offensive rebounding rate, while Phoenix is eighth with a 23.3 offensive rebounding percentage right now. The effective field goal percentage shows these teams are not doing well offensively as the Liberty is eighth with a 42.2 effective shooting percentage, while the Mercury are fifth with a 44.3 effective field goal percentage up to this point of the postseason. Go with under 155.5 total points to hit in this game.
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