New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction for Saturday August 1 2026

The New York Liberty travel to face the Phoenix Mercury at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Arizona, on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Tipoff is set for 3:00 p.m. ET, with national coverage on ABC and additional coverage on ESPN Deportes. New York enters at 16-13 overall and 8-8 on the road, while Phoenix is 11-18 overall and 5-9 at home. Phoenix is currently favored by 2.5 points, with the Mercury around -144 on the moneyline and New York approximately +118. The total is 175.5 points. For more WNBA predictions, check out our free WNBA picks.

New York Attempts to Rebound After a Narrow Defeat

New York has won three of its last five games. The Liberty defeated Dallas 99-98, Chicago 95-94 and Los Angeles 113-109 before losing 104-99 at Las Vegas on Thursday. That defeat ended a three-game winning streak, but New York remained competitive against a Las Vegas team with one of the league’s strongest records. The Liberty are 16-13 overall and an even 8-8 away from home.

New York is averaging approximately 89.7 points while allowing 87.6 per game. The Liberty also average 34.4 rebounds per contest and have repeatedly shown the ability to produce offense in close, high-scoring games. Each of their four most recent contests reached at least 189 combined points.

The primary question is whether New York can sustain its recent scoring while improving defensively. The Liberty allowed at least 94 points in each of their last four games, but they still won three of those contests. New York has also defeated Phoenix twice this season, winning 84-74 on May 27 and 75-68 on May 29. Those results provide a meaningful argument for taking the points with the road team.

Phoenix Carries a Three-Game Winning Streak into Saturday

Phoenix enters this matchup on a three-game winning streak and has improved to 11-18 overall. The Mercury most recently earned a 91-89 victory over Golden State, continuing a productive run following an inconsistent first portion of the season. Phoenix is 3-2 over its last five games and will now try to extend its streak against a team that defeated it twice in May.

The Mercury are averaging approximately 83.2 points and allowing 86.6 per game. Phoenix also averages 7.2 offensive rebounds, although its scoring average remains lower than New York’s. The Mercury’s recent improvement has helped close that offensive gap, but their 5-9 home record indicates that playing in Phoenix has not consistently translated into victories.

Phoenix’s key will be slowing a New York offense that has scored at least 95 points in four consecutive games. The Mercury held the Liberty to 84 and 75 points in the first two meetings but lost both contests because their own offense finished at 74 and 68. Phoenix must generate more scoring without allowing New York’s recent pace to turn this into another game in the 180s.

New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Pick and Prediction

ATS Pick: New York Liberty +2.5

I am taking the points with New York because the Liberty have already won both meetings this season and enter with the stronger overall record. Phoenix deserves respect for its three-game winning streak, but the Mercury are only 5-9 at home and average fewer points than New York. The Liberty have also scored at least 95 in four consecutive games. In a matchup priced within one possession, I prefer the team that has already demonstrated it can win this matchup.

Total Pick: Over 175.5

I am backing the over because New York’s recent games have been substantially more offensive than its two May meetings with Phoenix. The Liberty’s last four contests produced combined totals of 197, 189, 222 and 203 points. Phoenix also enters with improved form and scored 91 in its latest victory. The earlier meetings stayed well below this number, but the current scoring profiles point toward a faster and more productive game.

Final Score Prediction: New York Liberty 91, Phoenix Mercury 88