New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction for Sunday, September 14, 2025
The New York Liberty (27-17), the fifth-seed in the WNBA Playoffs, are set to face off against the Phoenix Mercury (27-17), the WNBA’s fourth-seed, on September 14th at 5:00 PM ET at PHX Arena in WNBA Playoffs First Round Game 1 action as we look at the Liberty vs. Mercury prediction. The Liberty ended the regular season on a three-game winning streak after a 91-86 road win over the Chicago Sky on Thursday, while the Mercury ended the regular season losing three straight games, including Thursday’s 97-76 road game to the Dallas Wings. Phoenix went 3-1 in the regular season against New York. See the floor better with WNBA predictions for New York Liberty vs the Phoenix Mercury.
Liberty Looking to Lean On Experience
The New York Liberty are looking to open the postseason with a win and take down a team that finished with a better seeding. They ended the regular season with a win on the road against the Chicago Sky, 91-86, and the team was able to win the rebounding battle 35-26.
On offense, New York managed to score an average of 84.4 points per game in the regular season. Shooting accuracy stands at 45.3% from the field and 35.5% from the 3-point line, with a free-throw percentage of 83.7%. The offense went through veteran forward Breanna Stewart as she averaged 18.3 points and 6.5 rebounds per game during the year.
Defensively, the Liberty was holding their own, giving up 80.3 points per game with opponents shooting 42.4% from the field and 31.5% from beyond the arc.
Injury Report for New York
- Center Raquel Carrera: Personal (OUT)
- Guard Ivana Dojkic: Not Injury Related (OUT)
- Guard Betnijah Laney-Hamilton: Knee (OUT)
- Forward Seehia Ridard: Personal (OUT)
- Forward Annika Soltau: Not Injury Related (OUT)
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Mercury Ready to Defend Home Court
The Phoenix Mercury are entering the WNBA Playoffs as the third seed and are looking to open up the postseason with a Game 1 win after struggling to end the regular season. The team is coming off a 97-76 road loss against the Dallas Wings to end the regular season and the team committed 18 turnovers in the loss.
Offensively, the Mercury averaged 82.8 points per game. The efficiency is notable, with a field goal percentage of 43.3 and a 3-point percentage of 34.0. At the free-throw line, they have to show some improvement as they had a 78.4% success rate while doing a respectable job with their rebounds per game, finishing at 34.7. This offensive depth is going to be led by forward Satou Sabally with her 16.3 points and 5.9 rebounds per game in the regular season.
Defensively, Phoenix played well as they conceded 80.1 points per game. Opponents have shot at a respectable level against them, with a field goal percentage allowed of 42.7% and a 3-point percentage that allowed the opposition to connect on 32.1%.
Injury Report for Phoenix
- Forward DeWanna Bonner: Rest (Questionable)
- Guard Julia Ayrault: Personal (OUT)
- Guard Helena Pueyo: Personal (OUT)
New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury Pick
Spread Pick for New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury
- New York Liberty -125 (5 units)
The New York Liberty won the WNBA Championship last season and have a significant amount of that core on this year’s roster, so they have the experience to step up in the playoffs. Even with the injuries, the Liberty have shown the ability to step up. New York enters with momentum as they won the last three games of the regular season, while Phoenix lost their final three games before the playoffs. All in all, go with the experienced and hotter team to win Game 1.
Over/Under Pick for New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury
- Under 164.5 ( units)
These teams over the last 10 games did not show the ability to be a dominant offensive force as the Liberty recorded a 103.2 offensive rating while the Mercury are eighth with a 103.1 offensive rating in that span. During the regular season, neither team crashed the offensive glass too well either, as New York finished last in the WNBA with a 25.2 offensive rebounding percentage while Phoenix was ninth with a 29.0 offensive rebounding rate. Go with under 164.5 total points to hit here.
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