Phoenix Mercury vs Chicago Sky Picks and Prediction for Monday August 3 2026
The Phoenix Mercury visit the Chicago Sky at Wintrust Arena in Chicago, Illinois, on Monday, August 3, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET, with coverage available through WNBA League Pass. Phoenix enters at 11-19 overall, while Chicago is 11-18 overall and 7-7 at home. The available market lists the Sky as 1.5-point favorites with a total of 175.5. Chicago is approximately -105 on the moneyline, while Phoenix is around -105. Before making your wagers, check out our free WNBA picks for additional analysis.
Phoenix Carries Improved Form Into Its Road Trip
Phoenix has won three of its previous four games despite falling 94-92 against New York on Saturday. The Mercury defeated Connecticut 72-63, Los Angeles 86-82 and Golden State 91-89 before losing to the Liberty. Each of Phoenix’s past three games was decided by four points or fewer, which demonstrates both its improved competitiveness and its inability to create much separation.
The Mercury are averaging 83.2 points per game while shooting 44.1% from the field. Phoenix produces approximately 31.6 rebounds and 19.5 assists per contest. The Mercury also average around 13.7 turnovers, 7.3 steals and 3.3 blocked shots. These are full-season figures and show an offense that has operated efficiently enough from the field but has struggled to control the rebounding battle.
Phoenix’s recent performances have been stronger than its 11-19 record suggests. The Mercury have held three of their past four opponents below 95 points while finding ways to execute in close games. However, Monday begins a five-game road trip, and Phoenix must respond quickly after a demanding two-point loss to New York. The Mercury have also split their first two regular-season meetings with Chicago, winning 91-83 at home before losing the rematch 77-66.
Chicago Builds Momentum With Consecutive Home Wins
Chicago enters Monday having won three of its previous five games. The Sky defeated Los Angeles 96-82, lost 93-91 at Atlanta and then suffered a narrow 95-94 defeat against New York. They returned home and rallied past Connecticut 94-88 before producing an 84-83 upset of Las Vegas on Saturday. Four of those five games were decided by six points or fewer.
For the season, Chicago is averaging 87.6 points while allowing 89.4 points per game, resulting in a negative scoring margin of 1.8 points. The Sky are shooting approximately 44.3% from the field and 31.7% from three-point range. Chicago has played at one of the league’s faster tempos, which has helped the offense generate more scoring but has also placed continued pressure on its defense.
The Sky’s recent improvement makes their 11-18 record somewhat misleading entering this matchup. Chicago has scored at least 91 points in four of its past five games and has demonstrated that it can execute in close contests. The defense remains the primary concern, but Phoenix averages more than four fewer points per game than Chicago. The Sky also possess home-court advantage and already held the Mercury to 66 points in their July meeting.
Phoenix Mercury vs Chicago Sky Pick and Prediction
ATS Pick:
- Chicago Sky -1.5
I am taking Chicago minus the 1.5 points. Phoenix has played better recently and enters with three victories across its past four games, but the Sky have won four of five while producing the stronger full-season scoring average. Chicago is also 7-7 at Wintrust Arena, while Phoenix begins an extended road trip immediately after a difficult two-point loss.
The matchup is likely to remain close because both teams have repeatedly played one-possession games. However, Chicago’s recent offensive production provides the home team with a narrow advantage. The Sky have reached at least 91 points in four of their past five contests, and they have already defeated Phoenix once this season. With the spread requiring only a two-point victory, I will support Chicago at home.
Total Pick:
- Over 175.5
I will take the over at 175.5. Chicago’s full-season games are averaging 177 combined points, while the Sky have scored at least 91 points in four of their previous five. Their offensive improvement has been accompanied by a defense that still allows 89.4 points per contest.
Phoenix has also shown more scoring ability recently, producing 86, 91 and 92 points in three of its past four games. The July meeting finished well below this number, but the teams combined for 174 points in their first regular-season matchup. With Chicago playing at a quick pace and both offenses entering in improved form, the current total offers enough room for an over position. My projected result is Chicago 91, Phoenix 88.