Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Picks and Prediction for Friday August 7 2026

The Phoenix Mercury visit the Connecticut Sun at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut, on Friday, August 7, 2026. The game is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET and will be televised on ION. Phoenix enters at 12-20 overall and 7-10 on the road, while Connecticut is 7-23 overall and 4-10 at home. The Mercury are 5.5-point favorites with a moneyline price of -228, while the Sun are +181 on the moneyline. The total is set at 173.5 points. For more WNBA predictions, check out our free WNBA picks.

Mercury Look for a More Consistent Road Performance

Phoenix has gone 3-2 over its last five games and brings a 12-20 overall record into this matchup. The Mercury recently lost to Atlanta 96-82 after earning a 106-101 win over Chicago. Phoenix also recently lost to New York 94-92 but won over Golden State 91-89 and Las Vegas 86-82. The Mercury have gone 7-10 away from home, and their recent results show that four of their last five contests were decided by five points or fewer or finished with at least 178 combined points.

The Mercury are averaging 84.2 points, 31.3 rebounds and 19.8 assists per game this season. Phoenix is committing 12.8 turnovers per contest while allowing 87.6 points. The Mercury have the better offensive average in this matchup, scoring 4.4 more points per game than Connecticut. They also hold a slight advantage in assists and take better care of the basketball, averaging 1.1 fewer turnovers.

Phoenix’s most important advantage is its ability to generate more consistent offense. The Mercury have scored at least 86 points in four of their last five games, while Connecticut has failed to reach 89 points in each of its last five. Phoenix still needs to improve defensively, but its recent scoring gives it a reasonable opportunity to create separation against a Sun team that has allowed at least 92 points in three of its last four games.

Sun Return Home Carrying a Five-Game Losing Streak

Connecticut has lost five consecutive games and enters Friday at 7-23 overall. The Sun recently lost to Dallas 83-63 after suffering a 94-88 defeat against Chicago. Connecticut also recently lost to Washington 92-84, Indiana 123-88 and Phoenix 72-63. The Sun were outscored 464-386 over those five games, producing an average scoring margin of minus-15.6 points. Connecticut is 4-10 at Mohegan Sun Arena this season.

The Sun average 79.8 points, 32.9 rebounds and 19.2 assists per game. Connecticut commits 13.9 turnovers per contest and allows 87.3 points. The Sun hold a 1.6-rebound advantage over Phoenix, but they score fewer points, produce fewer assists and commit more turnovers. Connecticut’s scoring differential of minus-7.5 points per game also explains why it has struggled to convert competitive stretches into victories.

Connecticut’s rebounding is its clearest statistical strength, and controlling the glass could prevent Phoenix from generating repeated possessions. However, the Sun’s recent defensive performances are difficult to overlook. Connecticut has allowed an average of 92.8 points across its last five games, including 123 against Indiana. The Sun must significantly improve their transition defense and avoid empty offensive possessions if they are going to stay within the spread.

Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Picks and Prediction

Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun ATS Pick

• Pick: Phoenix Mercury -5.5

I am taking Phoenix to cover the 5.5-point spread. The Mercury have the better offense, lower turnover average and considerably stronger recent form. Phoenix has won three of its last five games, while Connecticut has lost five straight and has been defeated by at least eight points in four of those contests.

Phoenix also defeated Connecticut 72-63 in the most recent meeting. The Mercury have been inconsistent defensively, but Connecticut’s 79.8-point season average and recent offensive struggles reduce the likelihood that the Sun can fully exploit that weakness. Phoenix has scored 86 or more in four of its last five, and another performance in that range should be enough to win by multiple possessions.

Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Total Pick

• Pick: Under 173.5

I am taking the under at 173.5 points. The season scoring averages produce a combined projection of 164 points, leaving nearly 10 points of room beneath the posted total. Connecticut has scored 88 or fewer in five consecutive games and was held to 63 points in two of those contests.

There is risk because both defenses allow more than 87 points per game, but Connecticut’s limited offensive production makes 173.5 a demanding number. The previous meeting produced only 135 points, and Phoenix may be able to control the matchup without turning it into a fast-paced shootout. I expect the Mercury to reach the upper 80s while the Sun finish around 80.

Final Score Prediction: Phoenix Mercury wins 89-80.