Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 6, 2025
The Phoenix Mercury are heading to the Mohegan Sun Arena on Saturday afternoon to face off against the Connecticut Sun in nonconference action for our Mercury vs. Sun prediction. The Mercury are 27-14 and are on a six-game winning streak as they are coming off Thursday’s 75-69 road win against the Washington Mystics. The Sun are 10-31 so far and are on a three-game losing streak as they are coming off an 88-64 road loss on Wednesday against the Chicago Sky. This is the third and final game against one another this season as the Mercury are looking for the season sweep. Set the tone — WNBA picks for Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun with clear angles.
Mercury Looking to Keep Winning Games
The Phoenix Mercury are coming off a solid 75-69 home win against the Washington Mystics last time out. The Mercury shot 28-of-67 (41.8%) overall, 13-of-34 (38.2%) from beyond the arc, and 6-of-9 (66.7%) from the charity stripe. Veteran guard Kahleah Copper played well as in 32 minutes, she recorded 18 points, five rebounds, two assists, two steals, and two blocks. The defense had a great showing in the win for Phoenix as they allowed Washington to shoot 38.4% throughout the game, 25.0% from distance, and 64.3% from the free-throw line.
Phoenix has been a middling offensive team as they are seventh in basketball with 82.9 points per game. The Mercury are playing well on the defensive side of things, as well as their 79.3 points per game allowed is fourth in the league.
Injury Report for Phoenix
- Guard Julia Ayrault: Personal (OUT)
- Guard Helena Pueyo: Personal (OUT)
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Sun Looking to Play Spoiler Role
The Connecticut Sun are coming off a rough 88-64 road loss against the Chicago Sky in their most recent game. The Sun shot the basketball at a decent rate as they were 25-of-65 (38.5%) from the floor, 5-of-16 (31.3%) from three, and 9-of-12 (75.0%) from the free-throw line. Veteran center Tina Charles led the way with 19 points and a pair of rebounds in 24 minutes of action. The defense did a great job as Connecticut had a team shooting split of 47.7/46.7/79.2.
The Sun are abysmal offensively as they currently are last in the WNBA with 76.0 points per game. The defense has been terrible as they are 11th in the sport with 85.9 points per game given up thus far.
Injury Report for Connecticut
- Forward Aneesah Morrow: Chest (Questionable)
- Center Olivia Nelson-Ododa: Back (Questionable)
- Guard Bria Hartley: Knee (OUT)
Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Pick
Spread Pick for Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun
- Phoenix Mercury -10.5 (5 units)
The Phoenix Mercury are clearly the better team and should be able to dominate. The net ratings show a massive difference that is larger than the spread, as Phoenix is fourth in the WNBA with a 4.4 net rating while Connecticut is 13th with a -12.7 net rating up to this point. Defending the perimeter is critical to success as the Mercury is third in the league with a 32.3 opposing 3-point percentage, while the Sun are 10th with a 35.0 3-point percentage against. All in all, go with the Phoenix Mercury to cover the spread.
Over/Under Pick for Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun
- Over 161.5 (4 units)
When looking at how these offenses are performing in the previous 10 games, they are scoring more than the total as Phoenix is averaging 82.3 points per game while Connecticut is scoring 79.5 points per game in that stretch. In that same span, these teams are moving the court as the Mercury are fifth with a 93.18 pace while the Sun are ninth with a 92.5 pace during that span. Go with over 161.5 total points to score here.
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