Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 19 2026

The Phoenix Mercury visit the Dallas Wings at College Park Center in Arlington, Texas, on Saturday, September 19, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 1:00 PM ET with coverage on CBS and Paramount+. Phoenix enters at 15-26 overall and 9-12 on the road, while Dallas is 25-16 overall and an impressive 15-6 at home. The Mercury have won two straight games, while the Wings carry a five-game winning streak into Saturday and are looking for their seventh consecutive home victory. Dallas also won the first meeting of the season 85-70 at home. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Get the best WNBA picks all season long with our free WNBA picks.

Phoenix Has Found Some Late-Season Offense

Phoenix enters Saturday at 15-26, but the Mercury are playing better basketball than their overall record suggests. They have won back-to-back games, defeating Toronto 101-69 before earning a 94-91 road win over Portland on Thursday. Phoenix is 2-3 over its last five games and has scored at least 89 points in three of those contests. The Mercury are also 9-12 away from home, which is considerably more competitive than their overall record might initially suggest.

For the season, Phoenix averages 84.4 points per game while allowing 87.3. The Mercury shoot 44% from the field and average 31.5 rebounds, 20.2 assists, 3.3 blocks and 7.5 steals per game. The defense remains the bigger concern, especially against a Dallas team averaging nearly 90 points per contest. Phoenix's negative scoring differential of 2.9 points also reflects a team that has struggled to consistently turn competitive offensive performances into wins.

The recent offensive improvement gives Phoenix a chance to remain competitive, but sustaining it against Dallas will be difficult. The Mercury have scored 195 points over their last two games, averaging 97.5, yet Dallas has allowed only 85.1 points per game for the season. Phoenix was also held to only 70 points in the first meeting. If the Mercury are going to stay within striking distance, they will need their recent offensive form to continue against a Wings defense playing at a much higher level than Portland's.

Dallas Enters on a Five-Game Winning Streak

Dallas comes into this matchup as one of the hottest teams in the league. The Wings have won five straight games, improving to 25-16 overall, and have been particularly strong at College Park Center with a 15-6 home record. Their current winning streak includes victories by scores of 91-85, 92-70, 96-78, 97-71 and 97-77. Four of those five wins came by at least 18 points, with only the six-point victory over Indiana finishing inside double digits.

The Wings average 89.2 points per game while allowing 85.1, producing a positive scoring differential of 4.1 points. Dallas shoots 47% from the field, significantly better than Phoenix's 44%, while averaging 34.6 rebounds, 22.0 assists, 4.1 blocks and 6.8 steals. Dallas holds advantages over Phoenix in scoring, points allowed, shooting percentage, rebounding, assists and blocks.

Recent form makes those season-long advantages even more impressive. Dallas has scored 473 points during its five-game winning streak, an average of 94.6 per game, while allowing only 381, or 76.2 per contest. That creates an average margin of victory of 18.4 points during the streak. The Wings also dominated the first meeting with Phoenix 85-70, holding the Mercury 14.4 points below their current season scoring average.

Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings Picks and Prediction

Pick: Dallas Wings

Dallas is the preferred side based on its combination of home-court strength and current form. The Wings are 15-6 at College Park Center, have won five consecutive games and are outscoring opponents by an average of 18.4 points during that stretch. Four of those five victories have come by at least 18 points, and Dallas already defeated Phoenix by 15 in the first meeting. Phoenix has won two straight and deserves some respect for its recent offensive surge, but the Mercury are still allowing 87.3 points per game and face a Dallas team averaging 94.6 over its current winning streak. With no confirmed spread supplied, Dallas is the side to back once the market is posted.

Pick: Under 176.5 or Higher

The Under is appealing if the total is posted at 176.5 or higher. Dallas has allowed just 76.2 points per game during its five-game winning streak, and the first meeting between these teams finished with only 155 combined points. Phoenix has shown more offense recently, but Dallas has repeatedly controlled games with defense, holding four of its last five opponents to 78 points or fewer. If the Wings again dictate pace and defensive efficiency at home, Phoenix could struggle to approach its recent scoring levels. A number in the upper 170s provides enough room to favor the Under.

Final Picks: Dallas Wings and Under 176.5 or Higher